By Topic

This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements: A) Following the UK election result, the certainty that the country is going to leave the European Union will provide a substantial short-term boost to the UK economy. B) Given that the transition period currently expires at the end of 2020, there is still a considerable risk that the UK will leave the European Union without a trade agreement. C) Leaving the European Union without a trade agreement would have a large negative impact on the UK economy. 

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements: A) If the federal minimum wage is raised gradually to $15-per-hour by 2020, the employment rate for low-wage US workers will be substantially lower than it would be under the status quo. B) Increasing the federal minimum wage gradually to $15-per-hour by 2020 would substantially increase aggregate output in the US economy. 

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements: A) If all of the “Seven actions to protect American workers” in President-elect Trump’s 100-day plan (see link) are enacted, it will more likely than not improve the economic prospects of middle-class Americans over the next decade. B) If all of the “Seven actions to protect American workers” in President-elect Trump’s 100-day plan are enacted, it will more likely than not improve the economic prospects of low-skilled Americans over the next decade. 

This European survey examines (a) Europe’s economic growth performance over the last 25 years has been measurably better than it would have been in the absence of the single currency; (b) With euro area member states having given up their ability to carry out independent monetary policy, it is substantially more difficult for them to respond effectively to country-specific macroeconomic disturbances 

This week's US Economic Experts Panel statements: A) The UK economy is likely to be at least several percentage points smaller in 2030 than it would have been if the country had remained in the European Union. B) The aggregate economy of the 27 countries still in the EU is likely to be at least several percentage points smaller in 2030 than if the UK had not left. 

This week's European Economic Experts Panel statements: A) The UK economy is likely to be at least several percentage points smaller in 2030 than it would have been if the country had remained in the European Union. B) The aggregate economy of the 27 countries still in the EU is likely to be at least several percentage points smaller in 2030 than if the UK had not left. 

This week's European Economic Experts Panel statements: A) Without changes in policy, a rising share of people who are over age 65 will exert a substantial downward influence on per capita real GDP in western European countries. B) In European countries where the share of those over 65 is rising, there are net social benefits to adjusting retirement ages for state-financed (including pay-as-you-go) pension systems upwards, so that revised retirement ages better reflect longer life expectancies. 

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements: A) Without changes in policy, a rising share of people who are over age 65 will exert a substantial downward influence on per capita real GDP in western European countries. B) In European countries where the share of those over 65 is rising, there are net social benefits to adjusting retirement ages for state-financed (including pay-as-you-go) pension systems upwards, so that revised retirement ages better reflect longer life expectancies. 

This US survey examines (a) Use of artificial intelligence is likely to lead to a substantial increase in problems associated with market power in digital markets; (b) Artificial intelligence offers substantial opportunities for new entrants into digital markets that have previously been concentrated; (c) Artificial intelligence is likely to be a highly concentrated industry, dominated by a handful of players