The Forum for the Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets is home to the European, Finance, and US Economic Experts Panels as well as a repository of thoughtful, current, and reliable information regarding topics of the day.
Europe’s Extreme Weather
Possibly the single best purchase your British-based columnist has ever made was buying a portable air conditioning unit around three years and a half ago. It was not cheap to buy, nor is it cheap to run, and it generally spends most of the year in a cupboard. It was acquired in the winter of […]
Extreme Weather
Question A:
Question B:
Question C:
This summer's extreme weather in Europe will lead to substantial upward revisions to assessments of the near-term economic costs of the physical risks from climate change.
Responses
Because current emissions reductions will have little effect on the climate experienced during today’s voters’ lifetimes, this summer’s extreme weather events in Europe are unlikely to persuade people to vote for more ambitious near-term climate policy.
Responses
Upward revisions of insurance premiums for physical risks associated with climate change following this summer's extreme weather events in Europe would indicate that insurance and reinsurance markets have historically underpriced those risks.
Responses
Clearer Communications
On one level the much-anticipated speech of Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole conference was not especially surprising. The key message, after all, was that with inflation remaining elevated, ‘we have work to do’. To investors, that sounded like an acknowledgement that interest rates would likely be heading up. And, given that inflation […]
FTxBooth: Warsh’s First Months
Ahead of the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, this snap poll of the FTxBooth US Macroeconomists Survey panel discusses the first few months of Kevin Warsh’s term as Fed Chairman. The summary results are below and you can read the Financial Times article here, subscription required. View the results of this survey>> For social media: […]
Cheap Groceries?
Voters, as they have made clear over the last few years, hate inflation. And to most of the general public, it appears that ‘inflation’ does not just mean the pace of year on year prices rises but something about the level of prices. People would generally, and understandably, like things to be cheaper – especially […]
The Economics of Rearming
One consequence of the more tumultuous geopolitical environment of the 2020s has been a material rise in global defense spending, and one that looks set to continue. As the IMF noted in its World Economic Outlook this April: After decades of declining global defense spending, rising geopolitical risks and more frequent military conflicts are pushing […]
The Yen Intervention
There is a well-rehearsed choreography to Yen interventions. It usually starts with ‘sources close to the Ministry of Finance’ letting it be known that they are unhappy with the current level of the Yen, or at least displeased, with the sharpness of recent moves. That is sometimes enough to persuade investors to back away. If […]
Municipal Grocery Stores In New York City
This US survey examines: Mayor Mamdani has announced that a core basket of everyday groceries will be 30% cheaper at five new municipal grocery stores:
https://www.nyc.gov/mayors-office/news/2026/07/mayor-mamdani-unveils-30--discount---including-all-produce--all-; a) The profits on groceries that the city-owned grocery stores would forgo are sufficiently small that the vast majority of the 30% discount would be provided by tax-funded subsidies; (b) A food assistance program along the lines of SNAP, with a potentially higher income cutoff, would provide direct support to low- and moderate-income city residents more effectively and with lower administrative costs than the proposed city-owned grocery stores
https://www.nyc.gov/mayors-office/news/2026/07/mayor-mamdani-unveils-30--discount---including-all-produce--all-; a) The profits on groceries that the city-owned grocery stores would forgo are sufficiently small that the vast majority of the 30% discount would be provided by tax-funded subsidies; (b) A food assistance program along the lines of SNAP, with a potentially higher income cutoff, would provide direct support to low- and moderate-income city residents more effectively and with lower administrative costs than the proposed city-owned grocery stores
Communications Confusion
A couple of weeks ago, this column reported on a Finance Experts Panel poll on the Fed’s new communications strategy. Or, as it might be termed, anti-communications strategy. Kevin Warsh, the new Chair, has taken a radically different approach to his most recent three predecessors. As that column explained, ‘he worries that forward guidance means […]
Defense Spending
This US survey examines (a) A substantial increase in defense spending largely funded by government borrowing would deliver a measurable boost to economic growth over the next five years; (b) Increasing public investment in defense R&D would generate substantial technological spillovers and productivity gains in addition to the boost to national military capabilities; (c) The market power of defense suppliers substantially raises procurement costs without adding to military capabilities
