European Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

Extreme Weather

Europe

Extreme Weather

Question A:

This summer's extreme weather in Europe will lead to substantial upward revisions to assessments of the near-term economic costs of the physical risks from climate change.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Because current emissions reductions will have little effect on the climate experienced during today’s voters’ lifetimes, this summer’s extreme weather events in Europe are unlikely to persuade people to vote for more ambitious near-term climate policy.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question C:

Upward revisions of insurance premiums for physical risks associated with climate change following this summer's extreme weather events in Europe would indicate that insurance and reinsurance markets have historically underpriced those risks.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Democracy, Government, & Public Policy

September 9, 2026

Defense Spending

Europe

Defense Spending

Question A:

A substantial increase in defense spending largely funded by government borrowing would deliver a measurable boost to economic growth over the next five years.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Increasing public investment in defense R&D would generate substantial technological spillovers and productivity gains in addition to the boost to national military capabilities.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question C:

The market power of defense suppliers substantially raises procurement costs without adding to military capabilities.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity

July 29, 2026

The UK and Europe

Europe

The UK and Europe

This European survey examines (a) Ten years after the Brexit referendum, the UK has experienced substantially lower growth than it would have done had it remained in the European Union; (b) The UK would be substantially richer ten years from now if it immediately began negotiations and domestic preparations with the aim of fully rejoining the European Union

Democracy, Government, & Public Policy

June 30, 2026

Tech Sovereignty

Europe

Tech Sovereignty

The European Commission recently presented the European Technological Sovereignty Package, a set of measures intended to strengthen Europe's capacity in semiconductors, artificial intelligence (AI), cloud and open source: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_26_1187; (a) EU countries' current reliance on non-European digital infrastructure – including cloud computing, AI, microchips, software and data centres – carries substantial economic risks in the medium term; (b) By securing critical supply chains (such as advanced semiconductors), scaling local cloud data centres and funding open source alternatives, the EU's technological sovereignty package will substantially reduce economic risks in the medium term; (c) By securing critical supply chains (such as advanced semiconductors), scaling local cloud data centres and funding open source alternatives, the EU's technological sovereignty package will substantially increase the long-term productivity and innovation capacity of European tech firms

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

June 12, 2026

America Versus Europe

Europe

America Versus Europe

This European survey examines (a) Over the past 25 years, the income of the median European citizen has declined substantially relative to the income of the median American citizen; (b) The living standards of the median European are not substantially lower than those of the median American

Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity

May 22, 2026

European Merger Rules

Europe

European Merger Rules

This European survey examines (a) The EU's rules on corporate mergers have been a substantial constraint on productivity growth in Europe; (b) Loosening the EU’s rules on corporate mergers would provide a substantial boost to the emergence of European champions able to compete effectively in the global economy; (c) In terms of promoting stronger European economic growth, looser merger rules would be substantially less effective than completing the single market, including the creation of a ‘28th regime’ of corporate rules

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

May 4, 2026

European Preference

Europe

European Preference

This European survey examines (a) In a world in which most economic powers have programmes that give preference to their own strategic resources – for example, the Chinese have ‘Made in China’, and the Americans have ‘Buy American’ – the EU’s strategic independence would be substantially enhanced by establishing some form of European preference in public procurement in selected sectors; (b) A ‘Buy European’ programme of public procurement in selected sectors could be implemented in a way that would deliver greater EU innovation and growth over the next five years than in the absence of such a programme

Democracy, Government, & Public Policy

April 10, 2026

Energy Prices

Europe

Energy Prices

This European survey examines (a) The release of strategic oil reserves announced by the International Energy Agency will deliver substantially lower prices for vehicle fuels over the next six months than would otherwise have been the case; b) Assuming that world commodity prices over the next six months continue to be elevated and volatile, temporarily subsidising or capping natural gas prices would be an effective way to protect European households and businesses from high energy bills; (c) The vulnerability of the European economy to high and volatile fossil fuel prices indicates the need for stronger incentives to promote decarbonisation rather than rowing back on policy support for the energy transition

Environment, Climate Change, & Natural Resources

March 18, 2026

Emissions Regulation

Europe

Emissions Regulation

This European survey examines: US regulation of greenhouse gases – including carbon dioxide from motor vehicles and power plants, and methane from oil and gas wells – rests on the Clean Air Act. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently announced its rescission of the greenhouse gas endangerment finding and motor vehicle greenhouse gas emission standards:
https://www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/final-rule-rescission-greenhouse-gas-endangerment. The President of the National Academy of Sciences subsequently wrote to the organization's members, noting that 'the EPA justified its decision on legal, economic, and regulatory opinions, and not on the science’. (a) The weight of economic analysis and evidence supports the conclusion that some form of regulation of greenhouse gas emissions is warranted; (b) For US consumers and firms, the health and environmental benefits of greenhouse gas emission standards outweigh the costs, making the EPA rescission substantially net negative for American society; (c) Since the environmental costs of greenhouse gas emissions are globally distributed, some form of collective international regulation is warranted

Environment, Climate Change, & Natural Resources

February 26, 2026

Digital Euro

Europe

Digital Euro

This European survey examines (a) Without a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC), Europe risks a further loss of control over its monetary system to foreign payment service providers, including US Big Tech platforms and US stablecoin issuers; b) Without a credible, modern wholesale settlement solution in central bank money - whether via a wholesale CBDC or equivalent infrastructure - Europe risks a further erosion of payments autonomy

Financial Markets & Banking

February 5, 2026