US Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

Populism and the Economy

Question A:

Economic insecurity is a more important driver of the recent rise of populist movements than voters’ concerns about national culture and identity.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Populist movements that achieve electoral success lead to a substantial slowdown in economic growth.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question C:

Some degree of potentially growth-constraining policies on trade, investment and/or migration is necessary to limit the further rise of populist movements.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Democracy, Government, & Public Policy

October 6, 2026

Defense Procurement

Question A:

Defense procurement that invites potential suppliers to propose technologies with potential military benefits rather than requiring them to meet tightly specified government requirements would generate substantially stronger military capabilities.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Defense procurement that enables start-up firms and other new entrants to participate (either as sole contractors or jointly with others, including incumbents) would generate substantially more innovation in military capabilities than directing spending predominantly towards incumbent contractors.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Regulation, Competition, & Market Power

September 30, 2026

Extreme Weather

This US survey examines (a) Government restrictions on insurance premiums are preventing insurance prices from fully reflecting the increasing physical risks associated with climate change; (b) By preventing climate-related risks from being fully reflected in insurance prices, government interventions are encouraging economic activity in areas that are increasingly exposed to extreme weather

Democracy, Government, & Public Policy

September 22, 2026

Municipal Grocery Stores In New York City

This US survey examines: Mayor Mamdani has announced that a core basket of everyday groceries will be 30% cheaper at five new municipal grocery stores:
https://www.nyc.gov/mayors-office/news/2026/07/mayor-mamdani-unveils-30--discount---including-all-produce--all-; a) The profits on groceries that the city-owned grocery stores would forgo are sufficiently small that the vast majority of the 30% discount would be provided by tax-funded subsidies; (b) A food assistance program along the lines of SNAP, with a potentially higher income cutoff, would provide direct support to low- and moderate-income city residents more effectively and with lower administrative costs than the proposed city-owned grocery stores

Democracy, Government, & Public Policy

August 5, 2026

Defense Spending

This US survey examines (a) A substantial increase in defense spending largely funded by government borrowing would deliver a measurable boost to economic growth over the next five years; (b) Increasing public investment in defense R&D would generate substantial technological spillovers and productivity gains in addition to the boost to national military capabilities; (c) The market power of defense suppliers substantially raises procurement costs without adding to military capabilities

Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity

July 29, 2026

The UK and Europe

This US survey examines (a) Ten years after the Brexit referendum, the UK has experienced substantially lower growth than it would have done had it remained in the European Union; (b) The UK would be substantially richer ten years from now if it immediately began negotiations and domestic preparations with the aim of fully rejoining the European Union

Democracy, Government, & Public Policy

June 30, 2026

Factory-Made Housing

This US survey examines: The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, currently before Congress, includes proposed legislation on manufactured housing: https://bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/whats-in-the-21st-century-road-to-housing-act/; (a) Legislation to remove the federal requirement that manufactured homes be built on a permanent chassis would substantially improve the supply of affordable single-family housing

Investment, Infrastructure, & Cities

June 18, 2026

Permanent Residency Rules

This US survey examines (a) Requiring most green card applicants to apply for permanent residency from overseas would lead to a substantial reduction in the numbers of skilled immigrants in the US; (b) Requiring most green card applicants to apply for permanent residency from overseas would have a measurably adverse impact on a substantial number of US businesses

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

June 3, 2026

Living-Donor Kidney Transplants

This US survey examines: There is draft legislation in Congress to increase the supply of human kidneys by encouraging donations to strangers: https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/2687 ; It is summarized here: https://www.hawaiibusiness.com/bipartisan-bill-aims-to-prevent-kidney-deaths-by-compensating-donors/; (a) Existing matching markets for kidney exchange have extended the lives of thousands of Americans with kidney disease; (b) A one-time $50,000 tax credit for kidney donation to strangers (with the transplants allocated at zero cost to recipients on the basis of waiting times) would save thousands of lives and pay for itself through a reduction in the cost of providing medical care to people suffering from renal failure; (c) Allowing hospitals to pay people for kidney donation to strangers would be at least as effective at saving lives and more cost effective than a tax credit

Healthcare & Wellbeing

May 21, 2026

AI, Work, and Education

This US survey examines (a) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to a substantial increase in the unemployment rates in advanced countries; (b) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a negative impact on the earnings potential of substantial numbers of high-skilled workers in advanced countries; (c) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to substantially greater uncertainty about the likely returns to investment in education

Education & Skills

May 13, 2026