Question A:
If the federal minimum wage is raised gradually to $15-per-hour by 2020, the employment rate for low-wage US workers will be substantially lower than it would be under the status quo.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Increasing the federal minimum wage gradually to $15-per-hour by 2020 would substantially increase aggregate output in the US economy.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Low levels of minimum wage do not have significant negative employment effects, but the effects likely increase for higher levels.
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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$15.00 will be high enough in the productivity distribution of workers in 2020 to substantially reduce jobs for the less skilled.
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I don't think the evidence supports the bold prediction that employment will be substantially lower. Not impossible, but no strong evidence.
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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On the margin Card & Krueger show that minimum wages have little impact. In contrast, in France the minimum wage eliminates labor segment.
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Empirical studies disagree on the sign of the effect. Few of those concluding in favor of negative are consistent with "substantially."
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends on how many exceptions are allowed. Most $15 city min wages exempt union members, for example.
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I worry that it will be but we don't know enough. Firms may raise prices and the Fed may accommodate some inflation. But the change is large
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some will move to uncovered sectors and the underground economy, reducing (not reversing) the impact on actual employment.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A $15 minimum wage rise makes entry level / low wage jobs very expensive. It would move the U.S. to be more like France, Italy, etc.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In rural areas this will have a significant effect, but in many cities it would not matter much. Teenager employment likely to drop too.
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The total increase is so big that I'm not sure previous studies tell us very much.
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Evidence is that it would be lower by perhaps 1 - 2 %. Lots of margins for adjustments.
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Our elasticity estimates provide only local information about labor demand functions, giving little insight into such a large increase.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Certainly in states where the median wage is close to $15. Smaller increases would impact employment much less.
-see background information here |
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lower, probably; substantially lower, not clear at all.
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Assuming inflation stays low. There is substantial evidence that labor demand slopes down, at least in the long run
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Empirical evidence suggests the effects on employment would be modest.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lower, yes. "Substantially"? Not clear. For small changes in min wage, there are small changes in employment. But this is a big change.
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If it had any net positive effect, it would likely be very modest.
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It would generate extra demand provided that low-skilled citizen still find jobs and remain integrated in the society.
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Because of labor market frictions and given the high propensity of low-income workers to consume, the effect is uncertain to me..
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Small demand-side effects and uncertain supply-side effects make it hard to conclude in favor of "substantially" higher.
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Does anybody have a mechanism in mind that would raise output? Stigler's argument that a min wage might not harm employment does not support
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If employment not much affected and redistribution to workers demand could rise. But if sizable unemployment opposite could occur.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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France, Italy, etc. have done this -- making it expensive to hire entry level workers -- contributing to low growth and high unemployment.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Given ambiguous employment effects and the aggregate share of people getting raises, I doubt you get "substantially" more output.
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aggregate demand should be bolstered, but the wage increase is so big that it's hard to predict what would happen with much confidence
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Probably slight lowering of potential output, but < 1%.
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not a plausible stimulus package.
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Again, any effects are likely to be small.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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