Question A:
If the US significantly lowers the number of H-1B visas now, expected US tax revenues will rise materially over the next four years.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
If the US significantly lowers the number of H-1B visas now, employment for American workers will rise materially over the next four years.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Basic economic theory. Cheaper factor expands output. Revenues increase not decrease.
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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H1B workers are mostly high-paid employees at profitable firms. Cutting H1Bs will reduce profits and total wage payments and therefore taxes
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is hard to see any mechanism by which this occurs.
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yes, H-1b is a flawed way to bring in skiledl immigrants (gives employer control over their immigration). But repeal w/o replace is dumb.
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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H-1B visa holders pay taxes and so there seems no direct effect. Wages might rise, raising taxes, but profits will fall, reducing them.
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I am confident that uncertain is correct because answer depends on general equilibrium effects that are extremely hard to identify credibly.
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Even if they were replaced by residents that are currently not working, there would be no net change in tax revenues.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fewer H1Bs will push U.S. cos. to hire talent outside the U.S., reducing output and tax revenue. Effect likely modest. Better more H1Bs.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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some jobs (and tax revenue) likely to shift overseas for the short run, hard to see how a material increase in taxes would be possible
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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H-1B visas have such a small and indirect effect on US tax revenues that one cannot be confident of a significant increase in tax revenues.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hard to see how making the labor force smaller could raise tax revenues.
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I can't imagine any argument for how restricting high skilled immigrants would increase tax revenue
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The evidence is not clear. But no support for a strong effect.
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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H1Bs may slightly depress wages for high-skill workers. But they don't lower total jobs and they likely raise total profits and wages.
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Immigrants have founded so many start-up companies, including Google, Tesla, ...
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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H1Bs both a substitute & complement to US workers. But the substitute US workers are already nearly fully employed.
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Protectionism doesn't work
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There aren't that many H-1B visas. Also skilled workers may be complementary to other workers, and so the effect could go the other way.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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See above.
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Many American workers are complementary to the H1-B workers. Net job impact is unclear.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Direct effect, may hire some U.S. employees. But will push other operations overseas, reducing U.S. activity. Net effect is uncertain.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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eventually perhaps some americans get hired, but seems more likely that there are shortages and activity moves in the short run
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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H-1B visa holders fill positions that are hard to fill domestically for structural reasons, such as skill mismatches.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some production would move out of the US because of the scarcity of skilled workers.
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There might be some effect, but not a material effect.
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I expect some jobs that are currently held by H1Bs would go to native-born workers. Many other jobs would move out of the country.
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Innovative enterprises flourish with ideas and talent from around the world.
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