Question A:
Imposing stronger legal liability on online platforms for content posted by users would substantially reduce the amount of user-generated content available on those platforms.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Imposing stronger legal liability on online platforms for content posted by users would substantially damage those platforms’ advertising businesses.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question C:
Imposing stronger legal liability on online platforms for content posted by users would substantially reduce the amount of misinformation and disinformation present on those platforms.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Probably yes, but the effect may not be substantial and there might be a process of bad content being replaced by higher-quality content.
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It depends. Even if liability is substantial, it might come from a small portion of content. And, platforms might spend what it takes to eliminate that content or to absolve themselves of negligence and liability.
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some reduction by those worried by potential legal liability, but "substantially"?
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Limited by the growth of judgment-proof platforms
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I hope I'm right about substantial reduction.
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Platforms would impose new rules which would impose a burden on all users.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Seems like a very real possibility although details of liability would matter.
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If the liability is sufficiently demanding and enforced, we can expect a significant reduction in total content. It is less clear that the overall usefulness of the content on the platform will be reduced.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A substantial effect would require substantially stricter standards.
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In all questions, the strength of the response depends on how stronger stronger liability is enforced
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Leading platforms' business model is currently based on maximizing user engagement, often via emotional triggers and outrage. Removing some of the questionable user content would reduce this type of engagement and digital advertising revenue.
-see background information here |
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Probably, but if that were the primary cost, I'd say it's a small price to pay. That's not the main cost, however.
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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That might all be good for the world
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It depends upon how much content is eliminated and the positive or negative value of advertising next to that content. Consider that Musk reportedly lost, rather than won, boatloads of advertising revenue (in part) by loosening content restraints.
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Unlikely to be substantial.
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If I have to guess I would say it will lower it, but there are offsetting forces that will shape the new equilibrium and hence ad prices and revenue.
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Advertising is tied to usefulness rather than total content of volume; it is uncertain whether this effect will be significant.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Wouldn't get much of an effect if the people censored are not good ad targets.
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Less content but higher quality could raise user engagement and hence ad revenue
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James Stock |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Question C Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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These platforms are playing the roles previously performed by newspapers, but without editorial responsibility. Legal liability would push them towards responsible publishing, especially toward less algorithmic boosting of the most questionable content to maximize user engagement
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It would reduce all information, good, bad, and indifferent. That's the real cost: not the loss of misinformation but the loss of a substantial chunk of everything else.
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If the liability for misinformation or disinformation is large enough then one way or another the platforms will have less of that content.
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Likely to migrate to judgment-proof platforms
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The major sources of misinformation will find ways around the new rules.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Plenty of incorrect information from many sources these days, including mainstream media of different political persuasions.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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But some legit content will be pulled back too.
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends on what the platforms are liable for. Can't ask them to fact-check all posts, so mis-information would still abound.
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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But it will also reduce the amount of controversial but correct information through overzealous moderation
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James Stock |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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