Campbell R. Harvey image

Campbell R. Harvey

27 Votes

Duke Fuqua

  • Durham, NC

About

  • Professor of Finance
  • President of the American Finance Association (2016)
  • Editor, Journal of Finance (2006-2012)

Voting History

Question A: Allowing short selling of financial securities, such as stocks and government bonds, leads to prices that, on average, are closer to their fundamental values.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Agree
8
Comment: Banning short selling reduces liquidity and as well as price discovery as a segment of the market (those that believe the price is above fundamental value) are excluded from the market.
Question B: When short sellers start to establish substantial short positions in a stock, the stock is likely to have been overvalued.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
7
Comment: The short seller believes the stock is overvalued. As for whether this is true on average, many hedge funds use some version of short-interest as a signal.
Question C: Requiring investors to disclose short positions in a stock at the equivalent threshold as they are required to do for long positions would improve the informativeness of stock prices.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Agree
6
Comment: It makes no sense to me that asset managers only have to reveal large long positions but not large short positions. Data on large short positions would be important information for traders.
With some measures of concentration by market capitalization within broad US stock market indices at an all-time high, investors seeking a well-diversified passive equity portfolio should consider alternatives to market-cap-weighted indices.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Disagree
7
Comment: If there is any deviation from fair prices, weighting by capitalization means you overinvest in overvalued stocks and underinvest in undervalued stocks - by definition. Deviation from cap-weight is a bet on market inefficiency. There are relatively passive (ETF) ways to do this.
Finance

Tesla

Tesla shareholders are likely to benefit substantially from the decision by the Delaware Court of Chancery to void Elon Musk's $56 billion remuneration package.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Disagree
6
Comment: A 2% drop in the stock price doesn't seem like a big deal - so not "substantial". What is more interesting is Tesla potentially moving incorporation to Texas. Currently, Delaware has near monopoly over corporate registrations. Competition is on the way.
On 10 January 2024, the SEC approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products:
https://www.sec.gov/news/statement/gensler-statement-spot-bitcoin-011023\

The SEC's approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products makes investors overall measurably better off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
7
Comment: It might have been measurable if the SEC had approved the first ETF application in 2013 when BTC was at $90. Now, after 10+ years of stonewalling BTC=$44,000. The SEC failed the very investors that it was charged to protect in the 1933. DeFi is promising. Look for ETH ETF next.
-see background information here
The Biden Administration's recommendation to lower the real discount rate used in the cost and benefit analysis of federal regulations to 2 percent (from the current levels of 3 or 7 percent) will substantially improve regulatory analysis.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
No Opinion
Uncertain
6
Finance

Modern Portfolio Theory

Question A: Harry Markowitz, the Nobel Prize-winning pioneer of modern portfolio theory, passed away earlier this year:
https://afajof.org/news/in-memoriam-harry-markowitz-past-president-of-the-american-finance-association-1927-2023/

Application of the principles of modern portfolio theory allows investors in practice to achieve substantial improvements in the risk-expected return trade-off relative to naive strategies such as equal-weighting that do not take account of return covariances.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
8
Comment: Correlations should be taken into account in diversifying portfolios. However, in applying MPT, we need to be careful. 1952 paper assumes we exactly know expected returns & covariances. It also assumes variance=risk p92. It is impt to take uncertainty & other risks into account.
Question B: Widespread adoption of modern portfolio theory by investors has substantially improved the efficiency of capital allocation in financial markets.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
7
Comment: It is hard to measure. However, in my experience in talking to very large allocators such as pensions and SWFs, they focus a lot on correlation structure. It is hard to measure "substantial" given we don't have a lot of examples of funds ignoring MPT.
Question A: The Federal Reserve has begun quantitative tightening (QT) to reduce the size of its balance sheet. Fed holdings of Treasury securities have declined by $800 billion relative to the March 2020 peak. The Fed currently holds $4.9 trillion of Treasury securities, significantly larger than the $2.5 trillion holdings prior to the Covid pandemic.

A reduction in Fed holdings of Treasury securities measurably increases the interest rate on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
6
Comment: When less demand, generally prices drop. However, there is a lot of stuff going on including: 1)less demand from foreign buyers; 2)higher inflation med-term expectations given reshoring etc.; 3)$620b gov interest service at average interest rate of 2.8%-so borrow to pay interest
-see background information here
Question B: A reduction in Fed holdings of Treasury securities measurably increases volatility in the Treasury market.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
10
Uncertain
6
Comment: The Fed distorted the market with its QE - and raised risk. Why was it necessary to do aggressive QE when unemployment was low, economy growing and the stock market at record highs?? We are paying the price now. QT might portend a more market-oriented environment-I am skeptical.
Question A: September 2023 was the 25th anniversary of the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM). In response to LTCM's troubles, the Federal Reserve orchestrated a multi-billion dollar rescue package by a consortium of banks and it cut the Federal funds rate target by 75 basis points within six weeks.

The hedge fund sector's contribution to systemic risk is substantially lower today than at the time of LTCM.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Uncertain
6
Comment: I think important lessons in risk management were learned in 1998. While risk is lower, risk is not eliminated. To be clear, there are many sources of systemic risk such as our banks - not just hedge funds.
Question B: Financial market participants' expectation that the Fed will aggressively ease monetary policy in response to financial market dislocations is a substantial source of financial instability.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Uncertain
6
Comment: Increasingly, the main focus of market participants is to try to predict what the Fed will do rather than analyzing economic fundamentals. Given the Fed's trigger-happy bailout mentality, this leads to more risk taking by market participants.
Question A: SEC Announcement: https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-155

The benefits of the new SEC rules on private funds - which require private funds to provide transparency to their investors regarding the fees and expenses and other terms of their relationship with private fund advisers and the performance of such private funds - substantially exceed their costs.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Disagree
6
Comment: These investors are experienced and should be routine due diligence to ask about all fees before investing. If the fund gives them false information, the fund can be sued.
Question B: The new SEC rules will have a substantially negative impact on the industry by stifling capital formation and reducing competition.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
No Opinion
Disagree
6
Question C: It is appropriate policy for the SEC to impose such rules on private funds even though the investors (limited partners) are sophisticated entities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Uncertain
7
Comment: The original 1933 act was designed to protect retail investors. Sophisticated investors should know better.
Question A: New Money Market Fund (MMF) Rules: The SEC adopted amendments to the MMF rules, including a new mandatory liquidity fee for institutional prime and tax-exempt funds. The liquidity fee would trigger when daily net redemptions exceed five percent and when the costs associated with such redemptions are more than de minimus. https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-129

The new liquidity fee will substantially reduce the likelihood of runs on MMFs.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Disagree
6
Comment: It will likely reduce probability but not clear by how much. Further, not clear it is the best mechanism (though better than swing pricing). Note it is not just a fee. More impt. was the increase in liquid daily assets from 10 to 25%. Also, adjustment in weekly liquidity.
Question B: The new liquidity fee will cause a substantial shift of assets under management from institutional prime and tax-exempt funds to government MMFs (which are exempt from the fees).
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Disagree
7
Comment: The fee reduces the expected return and as such there should be shift in allocation. Something had to happen given bailouts in 2008 and 2020. Gov had a choice of continuing bailouts, imposing more regs, or letting future MMFs fail. The first option (bailouts) is the worst.
Question A: The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on working and shopping habits has not been fully priced into current private valuations of downtown commercial properties in major cities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Uncertain
6
Comment: The answer depends on the city. CMBS spreads are very wide and vacancy rates are rising with San Francisco having an eye-opening 35% commercial vacancy rate. Many of these properties are being carried on the books at unrealistically high values.
Question B: A continued fall in commercial real estate valuations would trigger another round of banking panic.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Uncertain
6
Comment: I believe the banking system is far more vulnerable than the Fed would lead us to believe. It is a red flag that my TBTF bank can only pay 2 bps annual rate on my savings deposit. CRE + problems created by higher long rates = trouble. The private loan market is vulnerable too.
Finance

ESG Factors

Question A: Regulation that allows state pension funds to consider environmental, social, and governance factors in investment decisions only if these factors are material for risk and expected return would make retirees measurably worse off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Disagree
5
Comment: If the objective is to maximize the future value of the pension, then managers should only take factors into account that impact risk and expected return. To me, it is easy to make the case that ESG impacts long-term expected returns & risk. Hence, the regulation is not binding
Question B: Regulation that prevents state pension funds from considering environmental, social, and governance factors in investment decisions even if these factors are material for risk and expected return would make retirees measurably worse off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
7
Comment: Prohibiting a manager from considering a factor that impacts risk and expected returns imposes a constraint that surely makes the pensioner worse off. This is a general point. Imagine running a bond portfolio where you are prohibited from considering interest rate risk.
Question A: Since maturity transformation is an inherent feature of commercial banks' business model, some duration mismatch between assets and liabilities is unavoidable.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
8
Comment: Maturity transformation is a feature of the "current" model. But the current model is not the only model. With social media, FedNow, and perhaps CBDCs, the run risk greatly increases. Narrow banks and investment trusts are a credible alternative - 90 years after the Chicago Plan.
-see background information here
Question B: For the purposes of capital regulation, banks should be required to mark their holdings of Treasury and Agency securities to market at all times (even though their loans are not marked to market).
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Uncertain
7
Comment: 1. Given accounting rules, banks do not hedge the HTM securities. 2. It is unfair to mark to market the HTM & not the liabilities. 3. There are other models that should be debated. Chicago Plan is one version. Blackstone's recent initiative is a hybrid that reduces bank risk.
-see background information here

-see background information here

Finance

Discount Rates

Question A: Despite the empirical failures of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) in explaining expected stock returns, a shareholder-value maximizing publicly-traded firm should still use the CAPM to calculate the cost of equity in capital budgeting.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Uncertain
7
Comment: Given we don't know the true cost of capital, it is better to look at a variety of methods (and the CAPM should be one of them). It is well known that the CAPM omits certain key features like downside risk. In practice, companies use discount rates far above the CAPM (see link).
-see background information here
Question B: The equity risk premium that U.S. publicly traded firms should use in cost of equity calculations in April 2023 is above 6%.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
8
Disagree
7
Comment: Most companies use a risk premium above 6% - at least from the survey evidence. This could reflect capital constraints, a preference for projects with very large upsides, etc. Just because this is how companies operate, does not mean it is how they should operate (see link).
-see background information here
Finance

Banking Crisis

Question A: Financial regulators in the US and Europe lack the tools and authority to deter runs on banks by uninsured depositors.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Disagree
7
Comment: With a fractional reserve system and limited insurance, you have run risk. The Fed should revisit their opposition to narrow banks (ultra-safe commercial banks that receive deposits and park them all at the Fed - no loan book).
Question B: Not guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank in full would have created substantial damage to the US economy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
8
Uncertain
7
Comment: On Monday, FDIC should have opened accounts for all depositors. Those <250k, get 100%. Those >250k take an immediate 10% haircut. SVB's balance sheet very simple. If the final haircut is 5%, those big depositors get extra payment from FDIC. If more than 10%, the FDIC pays resid.
Question C: Fully guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank substantially increases banks’ incentives to engage in excessive risk-taking.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Agree
7
Comment: SVB reached for yield by increasing the duration of their Treasury assets to increase profit - playing the carry trade. They reduced their swap hedging from $10.7b to $0.55b - essentially unhedged, again to increase profit. Why not? There will be bailed out. Very dysfunctional.
Question A: By issuing inflation-indexed bonds, and thereby providing a long-term real safe asset for pension funds and retirement savers, governments can make a substantial contribution to social welfare.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
7
Comment: Many retail investors do not have access to inflation hedging strategies and TIPS may be useful for these investors.
Question B: Issuance of inflation-indexed bonds substantially helps government commit to a responsible fiscal and monetary policy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
6
Comment: This statement is only true if government had a long-term perspective. Given the long-term in the House is two years, policy makers can pass the problem off (payback of the debt) to the next generation.
Finance

Taxing Stock Buybacks

Question A: Large-scale stock buybacks by public corporations provide short-term rewards for shareholders and senior executives at the expense of potentially higher-return corporate investments.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
8
Disagree
8
Comment: Companies often return money to shareholders (dividends and buybacks) when they lack attractive investments. I think it is naïve to think that all of the money spent on buybacks could have been deployed to high net present value projects.
Question B: The proposed higher tax on corporate stock buybacks (an increase from 1% to 4%) would generate substantial public revenues.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Disagree
7
Comment: It may generate substantial revenue in the short-term. In the longer term, the higher tax may lead to lower overall revenue. As with any tax, you need to look not just at the benefits (higher revenue for government) but also the costs (lower investment, slower growth, etc.).
Question C: The proposed higher tax on corporate stock buybacks would generate a substantial increase in corporate investment.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
8
Disagree
8
Comment: It is unlikely that this tax will alter investment plans. Companies consider investments all the time. They generally choose the ones that have the best chance of generating value for the company. Will this tax lead them to invest in low or negative NPV investments?-I doubt it.
Finance

Debt Ceiling

Question A: Missing payments on the US Treasury security obligations for several weeks would pose a substantial risk of a global financial crisis.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
9
Agree
6
Comment: There are plenty of actions that can be taken to reduce the risk of a default. More importantly, this would be a "technical" default. The US is not in distress and it is very unlikely that a technical default would trigger a global financial crisis.
Question B: The requirement to periodically increase the debt ceiling measurably reduces the long-run size of the debt.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Disagree
6
Comment: It is a constraint - but the constraint is usually not binding. We don't know what the debt would be today in the counterfactual (no debt limit). The US has a structural deficit. Why not develop a strategy to fix that rather than just focusing on raising the limit?
Question A: The SEC’s proposed new rule for stock orders from individual investors is likely to be effective in giving those investors better prices on their trades on average.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
5
Comment: There is a benefit to having institutional investors participate in the auction for retail investor trades. I expect there would be a benefit for high liquidity stocks but could be worse off for lower liquidity stocks. Not clear how the "average" is calculated.
-see background information here
Question B: The new rule would improve the overall operation of the stock market.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Disagree
5
Comment: How big is the problem that the SEC is trying to solve with its 399 page proposed rule book? While I like the idea of involving institutional investors in the auction, the market works well now. I would prefer some experiments before making such a big change (ending PFOF).
-see background information here
Question A: Although the reported volatility of asset values in private markets (private equity, buyouts, and venture capital) is lower than that of comparable assets in public markets, their true volatility is broadly similar or greater.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Agree
8
Comment: These illiquid assets are not marked to market regularly. Low vol is a mirage. But it is not just vol. Salespeople will say that correlations are low and this is a great diversifier. Reported correlation is low for the same reason. False information used to hype private markets.
Question B: Since the global financial crisis, the realized returns on private equities have measurably exceeded the returns on public equities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Disagree
5
Finance

Cryptocurrency Exchanges

Question A: The collapse of a major crypto intermediary will have little impact on the wider economy and the stability of the traditional financial system.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Agree
7
Comment: Currently, this is a niche space and there are relatively few connections to traditional finance. The spillovers will likely be limited to other centralized firms dealing with crypto such as Genesis.
-see background information here
Question B: The collapse of a major crypto intermediary suggests the need for the crypto asset class to be more tightly regulated.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
8
Comment: FTX/Binance are offshore because many of the tokens they trade are securities (like tokenized GameStop). Regulatory oversight will be tightened on the U.S. exchanges (FTX.US also bankrupt). Coinbase (no offshore ops) is an obvious winner here as well as DEXs like Uniswap.
-see background information here
Finance

Passive Investing

The amount of passively invested funds has reached levels at which it has a measurable detrimental effect on market efficiency.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Disagree
7
Comment: Researchers have looked at the impact on individual stocks when included in ETFs (passive). Evidence suggests that after inclusion volatility increases and there is also negative autocorrelation (JF 2018-link). These findings are consistent with a negative impact on efficiency.
-see background information here
Question A: Research on the nature and impact of bank runs has made it possible to limit substantially the wider economic damage from financial crises.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Agree
7
Question B: Reforms of financial regulation since 2008 (and macroprudential policies in some countries) will not substantially reduce the probability of financial crises.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Uncertain
7
Comment: Though it is unlikely to be "substantial" reduction, there might be a small reduction. However, at what cost? Heavy-handed regulation may reduce growth opportunities in the economy.
Finance

Currency Depreciation

Question A: The costs and risks associated with a sharp fall in the value of sterling outweigh any macroeconomic benefits for the UK of export stimulus due to a weaker currency.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
10
Uncertain
6
Question B: Concerns about government finances and debt sustainability can undermine the reserve currency status of a major currency.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Agree
7
Comment: There are two ingredients for a reserve currency: 1) a large economy and 2) a perception that the economy will be relatively stable in the future. Concerns over debt sustainability inject additional uncertainty. It is well known in finance that additional leverage increases risk.
Finance

Executive Pay

Question A: The typical chief executive officer of a publicly traded corporation in the U.S. is paid more than his or her marginal contribution to the firm's value.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Uncertain
7
Comment: It is difficult to measure "marginal" value - hence, the uncertainty. However, it is very unlikely there is a persistent bias in a large cross-section of companies. Yes, some are likely overpaid - but some are likely underpaid.
Question B: Mandating that U.S. publicly listed corporations must allow shareholders to cast a non-binding vote on executive compensation was a good idea.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Uncertain
7
Comment: It is the job of the board of directors to determine senior compensation. The board has full information. The shareholders do not have that information. If board members are not doing their job, then the shareholders should replace the board members.
Finance

Stakeholder Capitalism

Question A: Having companies run to maximize shareholder value creates significant negative externalities for workers and communities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
9
Disagree
8
Comment: Did you mean "statistically" significant? Using the word 'significant', influences the response.
Question B: Appropriately managed corporations could create significantly greater value than they currently do for a range of stakeholders – including workers, suppliers, customers and community members – with negligible impacts on shareholder value.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Disagree
8
Question C: Effective mechanisms for boards of directors to ensure that CEOs act in ways that balance the interests of all stakeholders would be straightforward to introduce.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Disagree
8
Finance

Climate Reporting Mandate

Question A: A mandate for public companies to provide climate-related disclosures (such as their greenhouse gas emissions and carbon footprint) would provide financially material information that enables investors to make better decisions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
7
Agree
7
Comment: Cost of supplying this information might exceed the benefit. Further, the reporting will be very noisy due to measurement difficulty. Finally, Scope 3 upstream/downstream needs to be considered. Is the company also responsible for reporting Scope 3?
Question B: A mandate for public companies to provide climate-related disclosures would provide material information that enables investors to make better decisions with regards to non-financial objectives (such as aiding portfolio choice based on ESG principles).
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
7
Agree
7
Question C: A mandate for public companies to provide climate-related disclosures would induce them to reduce their climate impact substantially.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
7
Uncertain
6
Comment: There might be a reduction because companies manage these ratings. However, it is uncertain whether the reduction would be "substantial".