Harrison Hong image

Harrison Hong

23 Votes

Columbia

  • New York, NY

About

  • John R. Eckel, Jr. Professor of Financial Economics
  • Fischer Black Prize (2009)
  • Executive Director, Program for Economic Research

Voting History

Question A: Allowing short selling of financial securities, such as stocks and government bonds, leads to prices that, on average, are closer to their fundamental values.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
9
Agree
8
Question B: When short sellers start to establish substantial short positions in a stock, the stock is likely to have been overvalued.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
9
Agree
7
Question C: Requiring investors to disclose short positions in a stock at the equivalent threshold as they are required to do for long positions would improve the informativeness of stock prices.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
8
Agree
6
With some measures of concentration by market capitalization within broad US stock market indices at an all-time high, investors seeking a well-diversified passive equity portfolio should consider alternatives to market-cap-weighted indices.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
7
Disagree
7
Comment: Limited historical episodes of extreme market concentration and excess predictability
Finance

Tesla

Tesla shareholders are likely to benefit substantially from the decision by the Delaware Court of Chancery to void Elon Musk's $56 billion remuneration package.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Disagree
6
Comment: Governance at Tesla seems problematic.
On 10 January 2024, the SEC approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products:
https://www.sec.gov/news/statement/gensler-statement-spot-bitcoin-011023\

The SEC's approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products makes investors overall measurably better off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
8
Uncertain
7
Comment: Probably won't have much an effect on overall crypto market since there are a number of ways to already gain exposure to the asset class.
The Biden Administration's recommendation to lower the real discount rate used in the cost and benefit analysis of federal regulations to 2 percent (from the current levels of 3 or 7 percent) will substantially improve regulatory analysis.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Finance

Modern Portfolio Theory

Question A: Harry Markowitz, the Nobel Prize-winning pioneer of modern portfolio theory, passed away earlier this year:
https://afajof.org/news/in-memoriam-harry-markowitz-past-president-of-the-american-finance-association-1927-2023/

Application of the principles of modern portfolio theory allows investors in practice to achieve substantial improvements in the risk-expected return trade-off relative to naive strategies such as equal-weighting that do not take account of return covariances.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Agree
8
Comment: Studies go back on forth on this issue
Question B: Widespread adoption of modern portfolio theory by investors has substantially improved the efficiency of capital allocation in financial markets.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Agree
7
Comment: no studies on this issue
Question A: The Federal Reserve has begun quantitative tightening (QT) to reduce the size of its balance sheet. Fed holdings of Treasury securities have declined by $800 billion relative to the March 2020 peak. The Fed currently holds $4.9 trillion of Treasury securities, significantly larger than the $2.5 trillion holdings prior to the Covid pandemic.

A reduction in Fed holdings of Treasury securities measurably increases the interest rate on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
6
Comment: There is evidence of downward sloping demand curves.
Question B: A reduction in Fed holdings of Treasury securities measurably increases volatility in the Treasury market.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
6
Comment: Investors rightly would worry about the pace of tightening.
Question A: September 2023 was the 25th anniversary of the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM). In response to LTCM's troubles, the Federal Reserve orchestrated a multi-billion dollar rescue package by a consortium of banks and it cut the Federal funds rate target by 75 basis points within six weeks.

The hedge fund sector's contribution to systemic risk is substantially lower today than at the time of LTCM.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Uncertain
6
Comment: Cumulatively more financial regulations today than in the past in developed liquid markets.
Question B: Financial market participants' expectation that the Fed will aggressively ease monetary policy in response to financial market dislocations is a substantial source of financial instability.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Uncertain
6
Comment: Evidence for moral hazard effects are somewhat limited.
Question A: SEC Announcement: https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-155

The benefits of the new SEC rules on private funds - which require private funds to provide transparency to their investors regarding the fees and expenses and other terms of their relationship with private fund advisers and the performance of such private funds - substantially exceed their costs.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
6
Question B: The new SEC rules will have a substantially negative impact on the industry by stifling capital formation and reducing competition.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
6
Question C: It is appropriate policy for the SEC to impose such rules on private funds even though the investors (limited partners) are sophisticated entities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
7
Question A: New Money Market Fund (MMF) Rules: The SEC adopted amendments to the MMF rules, including a new mandatory liquidity fee for institutional prime and tax-exempt funds. The liquidity fee would trigger when daily net redemptions exceed five percent and when the costs associated with such redemptions are more than de minimus. https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-129

The new liquidity fee will substantially reduce the likelihood of runs on MMFs.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
8
Disagree
6
Comment: Hard to calibrate fee size to stop runs
Question B: The new liquidity fee will cause a substantial shift of assets under management from institutional prime and tax-exempt funds to government MMFs (which are exempt from the fees).
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
6
Disagree
7
Comment: Potentially but hard to predict investor’s elasticities in face of fees
Question A: The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on working and shopping habits has not been fully priced into current private valuations of downtown commercial properties in major cities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Question B: A continued fall in commercial real estate valuations would trigger another round of banking panic.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Finance

ESG Factors

Question A: Regulation that allows state pension funds to consider environmental, social, and governance factors in investment decisions only if these factors are material for risk and expected return would make retirees measurably worse off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Disagree
5
Comment: Investors might derive utility from these esg factors. So why limit this ex-ante.
Question B: Regulation that prevents state pension funds from considering environmental, social, and governance factors in investment decisions even if these factors are material for risk and expected return would make retirees measurably worse off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
7
Comment: same reasoning as before.
Question A: Since maturity transformation is an inherent feature of commercial banks' business model, some duration mismatch between assets and liabilities is unavoidable.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
8
Question B: For the purposes of capital regulation, banks should be required to mark their holdings of Treasury and Agency securities to market at all times (even though their loans are not marked to market).
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
7
Finance

Discount Rates

Question A: Despite the empirical failures of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) in explaining expected stock returns, a shareholder-value maximizing publicly-traded firm should still use the CAPM to calculate the cost of equity in capital budgeting.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Uncertain
7
Comment: Cost of capital fluctuates over time potentially due to mispricings and firms should rationally optimize investments based on this.
Question B: The equity risk premium that U.S. publicly traded firms should use in cost of equity calculations in April 2023 is above 6%.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Disagree
7
Comment: Historically equity risk premium is about 6% over lots of macroeconomic environments.
Finance

Banking Crisis

Question A: Financial regulators in the US and Europe lack the tools and authority to deter runs on banks by uninsured depositors.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Disagree
7
Comment: Could increase deposit insurance but not clear that is in the toolkit of financial regulators and requires congressional approval.
Question B: Not guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank in full would have created substantial damage to the US economy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
7
Comment: Its hard to say but the regional bank stocks index was signaling severe distress which is always problematic for the long-run growth of regional economies.
Question C: Fully guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank substantially increases banks’ incentives to engage in excessive risk-taking.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
7
Comment: Would definitely incentivize reaching for yield, as seemed to happen in SVB even without full insurance.
Question A: By issuing inflation-indexed bonds, and thereby providing a long-term real safe asset for pension funds and retirement savers, governments can make a substantial contribution to social welfare.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
7
Comment: Households could use more simple products to hedge inflation.
Question B: Issuance of inflation-indexed bonds substantially helps government commit to a responsible fiscal and monetary policy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
6
Comment: Not sure that there is any study on government commitments related to issuance of inflation protected products.
Finance

Taxing Stock Buybacks

Question A: Large-scale stock buybacks by public corporations provide short-term rewards for shareholders and senior executives at the expense of potentially higher-return corporate investments.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Disagree
8
Comment: Stock buy backs are substitute for dividends. Presumably, companies that are buying back stock see fewer great investment opportunities on the horizon.
Question B: The proposed higher tax on corporate stock buybacks (an increase from 1% to 4%) would generate substantial public revenues.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
6
Disagree
7
Comment: A tax on stock buy backs is like a tax on dividends which would lead insiders to substitute toward spending inside the firm
Question C: The proposed higher tax on corporate stock buybacks would generate a substantial increase in corporate investment.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Disagree
8
Comment: For the same reason as stated previously.
Finance

Debt Ceiling

Question A: Missing payments on the US Treasury security obligations for several weeks would pose a substantial risk of a global financial crisis.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
6
Agree
6
Comment: Hard to predict if this particular rendition of political gridlock is different from previous.
Question B: The requirement to periodically increase the debt ceiling measurably reduces the long-run size of the debt.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Disagree
6
Comment: Other underlying economic forces are more powerful.
Question A: The SEC’s proposed new rule for stock orders from individual investors is likely to be effective in giving those investors better prices on their trades on average.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Uncertain
5
Comment: More competition for orders will help individual investor order execution.
Question B: The new rule would improve the overall operation of the stock market.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Disagree
5
Comment: Not clear overall market efficiency will be so impacted.
Question A: Although the reported volatility of asset values in private markets (private equity, buyouts, and venture capital) is lower than that of comparable assets in public markets, their true volatility is broadly similar or greater.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
8
Comment: Fundamentals of private equity is likely similar to public equity. Private equity's lower volatility most likely reflect lack of transparent prices.
Question B: Since the global financial crisis, the realized returns on private equities have measurably exceeded the returns on public equities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Disagree
5
Comment: Performance has been higher by 50bps annualized according to recent reports/surveys.
Finance

Cryptocurrency Exchanges

Question A: The collapse of a major crypto intermediary will have little impact on the wider economy and the stability of the traditional financial system.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
7
Comment: Banks do not have exposure to crypto asset class yet.
Question B: The collapse of a major crypto intermediary suggests the need for the crypto asset class to be more tightly regulated.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
8
Comment: Why would crypto be different from any other asset class.
Finance

Passive Investing

The amount of passively invested funds has reached levels at which it has a measurable detrimental effect on market efficiency.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
9
Disagree
7
Comment: Optimal fraction of passive versus active from a welfare perspective depends on a number of parameters which are difficult to measure.
Question A: Research on the nature and impact of bank runs has made it possible to limit substantially the wider economic damage from financial crises.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
7
Comment: There is evidence from a number of episodes that government backstops help alleviate panics.
Question B: Reforms of financial regulation since 2008 (and macroprudential policies in some countries) will not substantially reduce the probability of financial crises.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
8
Uncertain
7
Comment: Regulations often target yesterday's problems. Financial innovations like crypto are difficult to keep up with for a variety of reasons including political economy ones.
Finance

Currency Depreciation

Question A: The costs and risks associated with a sharp fall in the value of sterling outweigh any macroeconomic benefits for the UK of export stimulus due to a weaker currency.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Uncertain
6
Comment: Studies of debt crises linked to sharp depreciation depending on how debt is structured.
Question B: Concerns about government finances and debt sustainability can undermine the reserve currency status of a major currency.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
7
Comment: Agree with statement theoretically though evidence isn't so clear on this issue.
Finance

Executive Pay

Question A: The typical chief executive officer of a publicly traded corporation in the U.S. is paid more than his or her marginal contribution to the firm's value.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
7
Uncertain
7
Comment: Evidence in the literature is mixed on this issue.
Question B: Mandating that U.S. publicly listed corporations must allow shareholders to cast a non-binding vote on executive compensation was a good idea.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
7
Uncertain
7
Comment: There are governance benefits of say on pay but with polarized american society could also be issues.
Finance

Stakeholder Capitalism

Question A: Having companies run to maximize shareholder value creates significant negative externalities for workers and communities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
9
Disagree
8
Comment: Workers are affected by externalities from firm production such as carbon emissions, which lead to global warming and extreme weather.
Question B: Appropriately managed corporations could create significantly greater value than they currently do for a range of stakeholders – including workers, suppliers, customers and community members – with negligible impacts on shareholder value.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
9
Disagree
8
Comment: Externalities such as global warming are costly to address, and require carbon taxes or sustainable finance mandates which cost shareholders
Question C: Effective mechanisms for boards of directors to ensure that CEOs act in ways that balance the interests of all stakeholders would be straightforward to introduce.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Disagree
8
Comment: Unclear if boards are meant to replace regulation, taxes or other forms of external market signals.
Finance

Climate Reporting Mandate

Question A: A mandate for public companies to provide climate-related disclosures (such as their greenhouse gas emissions and carbon footprint) would provide financially material information that enables investors to make better decisions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Agree
7
Comment: Firms know more about their climate risks than shareholders.
Question B: A mandate for public companies to provide climate-related disclosures would provide material information that enables investors to make better decisions with regards to non-financial objectives (such as aiding portfolio choice based on ESG principles).
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Agree
7
Comment: Disclosures would address concerns about ESG greenwashing for instance.
Question C: A mandate for public companies to provide climate-related disclosures would induce them to reduce their climate impact substantially.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
9
Uncertain
6
Comment: Whether or not firms reduce emissions depends on their underlying strategy.