John Campbell image

John Campbell

25 Votes

Harvard

  • Cambridge, MA

About

  • Morton L. and Carole S. Olshan Professor of Economics
  • President of the American Finance Association (2005)
  • Head of Program, NBER

Voting History

Finance

Tesla

Tesla shareholders are likely to benefit substantially from the decision by the Delaware Court of Chancery to void Elon Musk's $56 billion remuneration package.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Disagree
6
Comment: It's highly uncertain whether Tesla shareholders will benefit, but the shareholders of other tech companies may benefit from the signal the decision sends about acceptable compensation policies.
On 10 January 2024, the SEC approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products:
https://www.sec.gov/news/statement/gensler-statement-spot-bitcoin-011023\

The SEC's approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products makes investors overall measurably better off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
7
Comment: SEC-approved ETP's are likely a safer way for investors to trade Bitcoin than some previous arrangements, but if they encourage some investors to trade Bitcoin who would not otherwise have done so, these ETPs may harm those investors.
The Biden Administration's recommendation to lower the real discount rate used in the cost and benefit analysis of federal regulations to 2 percent (from the current levels of 3 or 7 percent) will substantially improve regulatory analysis.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Uncertain
6
Comment: The safe discount rate should be based on inflation-indexed government bond yields and updated as these change. While rates have recently risen, it remains true that 2% is a better benchmark than 3% - and the new guidance also improves the handling of risk when that is required.
Finance

Modern Portfolio Theory

Question A: Harry Markowitz, the Nobel Prize-winning pioneer of modern portfolio theory, passed away earlier this year:
https://afajof.org/news/in-memoriam-harry-markowitz-past-president-of-the-american-finance-association-1927-2023/

Application of the principles of modern portfolio theory allows investors in practice to achieve substantial improvements in the risk-expected return trade-off relative to naive strategies such as equal-weighting that do not take account of return covariances.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Agree
8
Comment: Although there are pitfalls in using historical covariances to predict future covariances, thoughtful application of modern portfolio theory can indeed improve the risk-return tradeoff.
Question B: Widespread adoption of modern portfolio theory by investors has substantially improved the efficiency of capital allocation in financial markets.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
7
Comment: This is a tricky question because passive investors opt out of price discovery; however, active investors using modern portfolio theory do improve the efficiency of capital allocation - aided by the analytical tools and cheap trading made possible by information technology.
Question A: The Federal Reserve has begun quantitative tightening (QT) to reduce the size of its balance sheet. Fed holdings of Treasury securities have declined by $800 billion relative to the March 2020 peak. The Fed currently holds $4.9 trillion of Treasury securities, significantly larger than the $2.5 trillion holdings prior to the Covid pandemic.

A reduction in Fed holdings of Treasury securities measurably increases the interest rate on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Agree
6
Comment: Quantitative easing and tightening (QE & QT) affects the prices of less liquid securities, but may not have a measurable impact on Treasury bond prices. The funding of leveraged hedge funds who hold Treasuries is likely a more important influence.
Question B: A reduction in Fed holdings of Treasury securities measurably increases volatility in the Treasury market.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
4
Uncertain
6
Comment: I do not see a direct effect on volatility since the Fed has not been "making a market" in Treasuries. There could be an indirect effect if Treasury rates rise and leveraged investors dump Treasuries - but this is highly uncertain.
Question A: September 2023 was the 25th anniversary of the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM). In response to LTCM's troubles, the Federal Reserve orchestrated a multi-billion dollar rescue package by a consortium of banks and it cut the Federal funds rate target by 75 basis points within six weeks.

The hedge fund sector's contribution to systemic risk is substantially lower today than at the time of LTCM.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
6
Question B: Financial market participants' expectation that the Fed will aggressively ease monetary policy in response to financial market dislocations is a substantial source of financial instability.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
4
Uncertain
6
Comment: This effect is real, but I believe that financial regulation - and market participants' understanding of the limitations of what the Fed can do - limit the moral hazard created by monetary policy.
Question A: SEC Announcement: https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-155

The benefits of the new SEC rules on private funds - which require private funds to provide transparency to their investors regarding the fees and expenses and other terms of their relationship with private fund advisers and the performance of such private funds - substantially exceed their costs.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Disagree
6
Comment: As private funds have grown in importance and have attracted more capital, basic transparency standards are appropriate.
Question B: The new SEC rules will have a substantially negative impact on the industry by stifling capital formation and reducing competition.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Disagree
6
Comment: The SEC regulations are milder than those originally proposed and are unlikely to have a large impact on the industry.
Question C: It is appropriate policy for the SEC to impose such rules on private funds even though the investors (limited partners) are sophisticated entities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Uncertain
7
Comment: Sophistication is a relative term, and while private LP's are more sophisticated than retail mutual fund investors, they can still benefit from transparency regulation.
Question A: New Money Market Fund (MMF) Rules: The SEC adopted amendments to the MMF rules, including a new mandatory liquidity fee for institutional prime and tax-exempt funds. The liquidity fee would trigger when daily net redemptions exceed five percent and when the costs associated with such redemptions are more than de minimus. https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-129

The new liquidity fee will substantially reduce the likelihood of runs on MMFs.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Disagree
6
Comment: The liquidity fee will force redeeming shareholders to pay liquidity costs, but only once redemptions are already substantial. There may still be an incentive to run before that threshold is reached.
Question B: The new liquidity fee will cause a substantial shift of assets under management from institutional prime and tax-exempt funds to government MMFs (which are exempt from the fees).
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
4
Disagree
7
Comment: There are already known to be liquidity problems with prime and tax-exempt funds in crisis times, and that has not eliminated the attractiveness of these funds. The liquidity fee is probably not a large enough change to do so.
Question A: The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on working and shopping habits has not been fully priced into current private valuations of downtown commercial properties in major cities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Uncertain
6
Comment: Private valuations often lag market conditions, which have been strongly negative since the Covid-19 pandemic altered office working practices.
Question B: A continued fall in commercial real estate valuations would trigger another round of banking panic.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
2
Uncertain
6
Comment: While banks have significant exposure to commercial real estate, banking panic is extremely hard to predict especially in light of policy responses to restore confidence.
Finance

ESG Factors

Question A: Regulation that allows state pension funds to consider environmental, social, and governance factors in investment decisions only if these factors are material for risk and expected return would make retirees measurably worse off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Disagree
5
Comment: Under the assumption that "worse off" refers strictly to the financial well-being of retirees, then they cannot be made worse off by regulations that restrict pension funds to consider only risk- and return-relevant factors.
Question B: Regulation that prevents state pension funds from considering environmental, social, and governance factors in investment decisions even if these factors are material for risk and expected return would make retirees measurably worse off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
7
Comment: The financial well-being of retirees depends on the ability of pension funds to consider all risk- and return-relevant factors in their investment decisions. (Although it is possible, indeed likely, that in the long run "green" assets will financially underperform "brown" ones.)
Question A: Since maturity transformation is an inherent feature of commercial banks' business model, some duration mismatch between assets and liabilities is unavoidable.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
8
Comment: This is certainly true of the current model of commercial banking, but a shift to an alternative "narrow banking" model with minimal maturity mismatch is a realistic possibility in the coming decades.
Question B: For the purposes of capital regulation, banks should be required to mark their holdings of Treasury and Agency securities to market at all times (even though their loans are not marked to market).
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Uncertain
7
Comment: This change would reflect the liquidity of securities, and would encourage commercial banks to correctly trade off liquidity of securities versus hold-to-maturity accounting for less liquid loans.
Finance

Discount Rates

Question A: Despite the empirical failures of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) in explaining expected stock returns, a shareholder-value maximizing publicly-traded firm should still use the CAPM to calculate the cost of equity in capital budgeting.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Uncertain
7
Comment: While the CAPM may be a reasonable first approximation, the cost of capital is better described empirically by a multi-factor Fama-French-style model or by an intertemporal CAPM that distinguishes between cash-flow risk, discount risk, and variance risk.
-see background information here
Question B: The equity risk premium that U.S. publicly traded firms should use in cost of equity calculations in April 2023 is above 6%.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Disagree
7
Comment: A dynamic steady-state model (Gordon growth model) suggests the long-term expected real stock return is currently around 7%, but the 20-year TIPS yield is above 1% implying an equity premium slightly below 6%.
Finance

Banking Crisis

Question A: Financial regulators in the US and Europe lack the tools and authority to deter runs on banks by uninsured depositors.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Disagree
7
Comment: As long as some depositors remain uninsured, runs remain possible as we have recently seen among depositors of US regional banks. The risk can be reduced by more stringent capital requirements and regulation of bank risktaking, but cannot be reduced to zero.
Question B: Not guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank in full would have created substantial damage to the US economy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
2
Uncertain
7
Comment: It is impossible to know what would have happened in the absence of this action by regulators. However, the risk of contagion and damage to the economy in that scenario is large enough that the action is understandable.
Question C: Fully guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank substantially increases banks’ incentives to engage in excessive risk-taking.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
7
Comment: Insured deposits are a stable source of funding and encourage banks to take risks within the bounds allowed by regulation and allowing for their desire to preserve their valuable franchises.
Question A: By issuing inflation-indexed bonds, and thereby providing a long-term real safe asset for pension funds and retirement savers, governments can make a substantial contribution to social welfare.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Agree
7
Comment: Whenever long-run inflation prospects are uncertain (as is the case at present), government inflation-indexed bonds provide a safe real return that is not available from any other assets and that is important to offer to retirement savers and other long-term investors.
-see background information here
Question B: Issuance of inflation-indexed bonds substantially helps government commit to a responsible fiscal and monetary policy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Uncertain
6
Comment: When inflation expectations are high, so that nominal interest rates are high, a government that intends to fight inflation finds nominal long-term borrowing expensive. Inflation-indexed bonds then reduce borrowing costs and signal the government's resolve.
Finance

Taxing Stock Buybacks

Question A: Large-scale stock buybacks by public corporations provide short-term rewards for shareholders and senior executives at the expense of potentially higher-return corporate investments.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
8
Disagree
8
Comment: It is not true that keeping profits inside corporations is necessarily the highest-value use of those funds. Corporations should pass profits back to shareholders, potentially for investment elsewhere, unless they have unusually attractive investment opportunities.
Question B: The proposed higher tax on corporate stock buybacks (an increase from 1% to 4%) would generate substantial public revenues.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Disagree
7
Comment: Taxing buybacks at a higher rate makes them more equivalent to dividends, the alternative means by which corporations pay their shareholders, and thereby closes a tax loophole. While buybacks will be reduced in response, there should nonetheless be significant revenue.
Question C: The proposed higher tax on corporate stock buybacks would generate a substantial increase in corporate investment.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
4
Disagree
8
Comment: I think a strong investment response is unlikely.
Finance

Debt Ceiling

Question A: Missing payments on the US Treasury security obligations for several weeks would pose a substantial risk of a global financial crisis.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
2
Agree
6
Comment: Missing Treasury payments would certainly increase the risk of a financial crisis, but I think a crisis remains unlikely even in that scenario. The downside is so extreme that it is important to avoid this situation.
Question B: The requirement to periodically increase the debt ceiling measurably reduces the long-run size of the debt.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Disagree
6
Comment: The debt ceiling is artificial and provides opportunities for political posturing. I see no evidence that it has affected the long-run trajectory of fiscal policy.
Question A: The SEC’s proposed new rule for stock orders from individual investors is likely to be effective in giving those investors better prices on their trades on average.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
5
Comment: The quality of execution in the current system varies across brokers because wholesalers offer different discounts to different brokers. The current system is insufficiently transparent but the SEC rule may not improve average quality even if it reduces the dispersion of quality.
-see background information here
Question B: The new rule would improve the overall operation of the stock market.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
2
Disagree
5
Comment: I think the rule is unlikely to have a large effect on the average cost of trading for individual investors. It may slightly improve transparency.
Question A: Although the reported volatility of asset values in private markets (private equity, buyouts, and venture capital) is lower than that of comparable assets in public markets, their true volatility is broadly similar or greater.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
8
Comment: Reported private equity volatility is understated by imperfect marking to market, which lowers volatility particularly when downturns are short-lived. I believe this effect is strong enough that true private equity returns are as volatile as public returns.
Question B: Since the global financial crisis, the realized returns on private equities have measurably exceeded the returns on public equities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Disagree
5
Comment: This was perhaps true before the market downturn in 2022, but smoothing in private equity has concealed the extent of private equity losses in 2022 which are yet to be fully realized.
-see background information here
Finance

Cryptocurrency Exchanges

Question A: The collapse of a major crypto intermediary will have little impact on the wider economy and the stability of the traditional financial system.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
7
Comment: Crypto market cap peaked just below $3 trillion last year, compared with over $40 trillion in each of the US stock, bond, and housing markets, and crypto leverage is largely confined to the crypto system itself so spillovers are limited.
Question B: The collapse of a major crypto intermediary suggests the need for the crypto asset class to be more tightly regulated.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Agree
8
Comment: The case for crypto regulation is a consumer financial protection case, not a financial stability case at this point. Crypto regulation is also needed to prevent scams and frauds from deterring the deployment of capital to finance legitimate fintech innovation.
Finance

Passive Investing

The amount of passively invested funds has reached levels at which it has a measurable detrimental effect on market efficiency.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Disagree
7
Comment: If passive investing grows at the expense of loss-making active investing, it reduces the profits available to active investors with private information but this does not necessarily make stock prices less efficient.
-see background information here
Question A: Research on the nature and impact of bank runs has made it possible to limit substantially the wider economic damage from financial crises.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
7
Question B: Reforms of financial regulation since 2008 (and macroprudential policies in some countries) will not substantially reduce the probability of financial crises.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Uncertain
7
Comment: Reforms have had some effect, particularly on large US banks, but there remains a meaningful risk of financial crises.
Finance

Currency Depreciation

Question A: The costs and risks associated with a sharp fall in the value of sterling outweigh any macroeconomic benefits for the UK of export stimulus due to a weaker currency.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Uncertain
6
Comment: Sterling depreciation raises inflation which requires monetary tightening. Interest rates are already rising and now must rise more sharply, with destabilizing effects on households, through mortgage rates, and on leveraged financial intermediaries.
Question B: Concerns about government finances and debt sustainability can undermine the reserve currency status of a major currency.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
7
Comment: This happened a century ago with the replacement of the British pound by the US dollar as the world's major reserve currency. Today there is no obvious alternative to the dollar, but a shift in reserve currency structure remains a possibility albeit unlikely.
-see background information here
Finance

Executive Pay

Question A: The typical chief executive officer of a publicly traded corporation in the U.S. is paid more than his or her marginal contribution to the firm's value.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
3
Uncertain
7
Comment: The marginal value of management skill for a large corporation can be enormous. But it is hard to rule out that CEOs are extracting more than their marginal contribution in some cases.
-see background information here
Question B: Mandating that U.S. publicly listed corporations must allow shareholders to cast a non-binding vote on executive compensation was a good idea.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
7
Comment: This is almost certainly not harmful, although there is little solid evidence that it affects CEO pay.
Finance

Stakeholder Capitalism

Question A: Having companies run to maximize shareholder value creates significant negative externalities for workers and communities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Disagree
8
Question B: Appropriately managed corporations could create significantly greater value than they currently do for a range of stakeholders – including workers, suppliers, customers and community members – with negligible impacts on shareholder value.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Disagree
8
Comment: Negative externalities to stakeholders are likely meaningful, but correcting them through "appropriate management" is easier said than done.
Question C: Effective mechanisms for boards of directors to ensure that CEOs act in ways that balance the interests of all stakeholders would be straightforward to introduce.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Disagree
8
Comment: It is extremely difficult to incentivize CEOs to consider all stakeholders without empowering them to pursue their own selfish interests.
Finance

Climate Reporting Mandate

Question A: A mandate for public companies to provide climate-related disclosures (such as their greenhouse gas emissions and carbon footprint) would provide financially material information that enables investors to make better decisions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
7
Comment: Climate-related disclosures are clearly relevant for risk. They may be relevant for expected returns as well, although one should be skeptical of claims that "green" investments will outperform - in fact, investors' ESG preferences likely imply low green returns in the long run.
Question B: A mandate for public companies to provide climate-related disclosures would provide material information that enables investors to make better decisions with regards to non-financial objectives (such as aiding portfolio choice based on ESG principles).
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
10
Agree
7
Comment: It is almost tautologically true that climate-related disclosures are relevant for investors with direct ESG preferences about their portfolios.
Question C: A mandate for public companies to provide climate-related disclosures would induce them to reduce their climate impact substantially.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
6
Comment: On balance I agree, but this depends on the tug-of-war between investors with green preferences and those with countervailing political opinions.