Jonathan Parker image

Jonathan Parker

27 Votes

MIT Sloan

  • Cambridge, MA

About

  • Robert C. Merton (1970) Professor of Financial Economics
  • Member, Panel of Economic Advisers, Congressional Budget Office, 2015 – present
  • Special Adviser on Financial Stability for the Office of Financial Stability in the U.S. Department of the Treasury (2009)

Voting History

Question A: Allowing short selling of financial securities, such as stocks and government bonds, leads to prices that, on average, are closer to their fundamental values.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
8
Comment: Markets aggregate information and opinions when all investors can freely trade. Costs to shorting individual stocks implies that negative information or opinions have less impact on prices that positive information.
-see background information here
Question B: When short sellers start to establish substantial short positions in a stock, the stock is likely to have been overvalued.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
7
Comment: Data show lower average returns for more heavily shorted stocks, but note that the better measure is the fee associated with shorting, which reflects both the demand to short and the supply of stock that can be borrowed.
-see background information here
Question C: Requiring investors to disclose short positions in a stock at the equivalent threshold as they are required to do for long positions would improve the informativeness of stock prices.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
6
Comment: Ideally disclosure requirements would apply symmetrically to deviations from the stock's share in the market portfolio. But symmetry relative to zero is probably reasonably close to optimal.
With some measures of concentration by market capitalization within broad US stock market indices at an all-time high, investors seeking a well-diversified passive equity portfolio should consider alternatives to market-cap-weighted indices.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
8
Disagree
7
Comment: The Two-Fund Separation Theorem
Finance

Tesla

Tesla shareholders are likely to benefit substantially from the decision by the Delaware Court of Chancery to void Elon Musk's $56 billion remuneration package.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
9
Disagree
6
Comment: The Delaware court, with more information than us, voided the pay based on existing protections for minority investors against conflicted boards & deceptive disclosures, helping investors in Tesla (& all US stocks). Mature Tesla may be better without Musk but that is irrelevant.
On 10 January 2024, the SEC approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products:
https://www.sec.gov/news/statement/gensler-statement-spot-bitcoin-011023\

The SEC's approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products makes investors overall measurably better off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
7
Uncertain
7
Comment: Unclear whether the benefits for some investors who would otherwise be investing on unregulated exchanges & crypto scams outweighs the costs to investors drawn into investing in non-interest bearing money with unstable value.
The Biden Administration's recommendation to lower the real discount rate used in the cost and benefit analysis of federal regulations to 2 percent (from the current levels of 3 or 7 percent) will substantially improve regulatory analysis.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
6
Comment: If this were to be effective, Circular A-4 would not be a confusing mess. Further, the number is backwards looking, the rate of return on Treasury debt reflects the ability of the US government to raise funds from taxpayers in bad times, and risk gets far too little attention.
-see background information here
Finance

Modern Portfolio Theory

Question A: Harry Markowitz, the Nobel Prize-winning pioneer of modern portfolio theory, passed away earlier this year:
https://afajof.org/news/in-memoriam-harry-markowitz-past-president-of-the-american-finance-association-1927-2023/

Application of the principles of modern portfolio theory allows investors in practice to achieve substantial improvements in the risk-expected return trade-off relative to naive strategies such as equal-weighting that do not take account of return covariances.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
10
Agree
8
Question B: Widespread adoption of modern portfolio theory by investors has substantially improved the efficiency of capital allocation in financial markets.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
10
Agree
7
Question A: The Federal Reserve has begun quantitative tightening (QT) to reduce the size of its balance sheet. Fed holdings of Treasury securities have declined by $800 billion relative to the March 2020 peak. The Fed currently holds $4.9 trillion of Treasury securities, significantly larger than the $2.5 trillion holdings prior to the Covid pandemic.

A reduction in Fed holdings of Treasury securities measurably increases the interest rate on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
6
Comment: QT changes the risks that are borne by government and so changes the pricing of marketable government securities. Further, the people who directly and indirectly hold Treasury securities typically take time to re-balance to hold more securities so large QT sales reduce prices.
Question B: A reduction in Fed holdings of Treasury securities measurably increases volatility in the Treasury market.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Uncertain
6
Comment: There is little theoretical reason to believe this and less empirical evidence that it is true.
Question A: September 2023 was the 25th anniversary of the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM). In response to LTCM's troubles, the Federal Reserve orchestrated a multi-billion dollar rescue package by a consortium of banks and it cut the Federal funds rate target by 75 basis points within six weeks.

The hedge fund sector's contribution to systemic risk is substantially lower today than at the time of LTCM.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
6
Comment: Because hedge funds are funded with equity from endowments, wealthy investors, etc., they are not a direct source of systemic risk. But losses by banks that lend to them and sell them derivatives can be systemic. I think the current banking sector is better managed and regulated.
Question B: Financial market participants' expectation that the Fed will aggressively ease monetary policy in response to financial market dislocations is a substantial source of financial instability.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Uncertain
6
Comment: Lots of financial strategies now base strategies on the historical data in which interest rates fall and market liquidity rises n a crisis. Financial institutions also explicitly believes the Fed will save them. After Lehman, the CEO blamed the Fed for not helping them out.
Question A: SEC Announcement: https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-155

The benefits of the new SEC rules on private funds - which require private funds to provide transparency to their investors regarding the fees and expenses and other terms of their relationship with private fund advisers and the performance of such private funds - substantially exceed their costs.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
2
Disagree
6
Comment: The costs of reporting that include valuation of hard-to-value assets seem costly, particularly for small advisers, but transparency and most of the restrictions typically add value for investors. But we need research to measures and know costs and benefits.
Question B: The new SEC rules will have a substantially negative impact on the industry by stifling capital formation and reducing competition.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Disagree
6
Comment: While there will be concerns in the industry about legal liability, these additional protections may also draw more investors in and more funds from existing investors. And if these are costs, finance will find a way to provide the funding.
Question C: It is appropriate policy for the SEC to impose such rules on private funds even though the investors (limited partners) are sophisticated entities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
7
Comment: Rich does not mean sophisticated.
Question A: New Money Market Fund (MMF) Rules: The SEC adopted amendments to the MMF rules, including a new mandatory liquidity fee for institutional prime and tax-exempt funds. The liquidity fee would trigger when daily net redemptions exceed five percent and when the costs associated with such redemptions are more than de minimus. https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-129

The new liquidity fee will substantially reduce the likelihood of runs on MMFs.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Disagree
6
Comment: The new regulation clearly makes withdrawals more costly during times of market stress, so likely helps stabilize MMMF funding during times of fear about widespread default on high-quality short-term debt. But the threshold itself creates some fund-level risk of smaller runs.
Question B: The new liquidity fee will cause a substantial shift of assets under management from institutional prime and tax-exempt funds to government MMFs (which are exempt from the fees).
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Disagree
7
Comment: And a shift to short-term debt funds that are not subject to this regulation.
Question A: The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on working and shopping habits has not been fully priced into current private valuations of downtown commercial properties in major cities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Uncertain
6
Comment: Absent a really good reason, market prices are good reflections of true values, as are the values that the owners place on their assets. At banks that are currently under duress, current valuations made for bank regulators may not have losses completely priced in.
Question B: A continued fall in commercial real estate valuations would trigger another round of banking panic.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Uncertain
6
Comment: Many banks, particularly large regional banks are reliant on profits from a stable depository base at low interest rates to cover recent losses on hold-to-maturity assets. If credit losses mount, uninsured depositors will withdraw, raising funding costs and endangering solvency.
Finance

ESG Factors

Question A: Regulation that allows state pension funds to consider environmental, social, and governance factors in investment decisions only if these factors are material for risk and expected return would make retirees measurably worse off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Disagree
5
Comment: Focusing on returns is good because ESG ratings are a mess (but getting better), and pension funds/managers do not have the expertise to effect ESG goals with portfolio choices. Investors should vote for laws to regulate immoral or socially harmful firm behavior.
Question B: Regulation that prevents state pension funds from considering environmental, social, and governance factors in investment decisions even if these factors are material for risk and expected return would make retirees measurably worse off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Agree
7
Comment: Such a regulation will cause law suits, lots and lots of costly measures to prevent law suits, missed investment opportunities, and lower returns.
Question A: Since maturity transformation is an inherent feature of commercial banks' business model, some duration mismatch between assets and liabilities is unavoidable.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Agree
8
Comment: Given derivative markets, it is straightforward for banks to hedge the vast majority of interest rate risk. Some small amounts will surely remain due to uncertainty over pre-payment and default risk, although these too can be significantly hedged.
Question B: For the purposes of capital regulation, banks should be required to mark their holdings of Treasury and Agency securities to market at all times (even though their loans are not marked to market).
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
10
Uncertain
7
Comment: All the complexity and regulation and opacity of the banking sector should not be used to fund investment in bonds. If banks have a purpose worth the messy costs of the sector, it is only for information-intensive relationship lending. Bonds should be marked to market and hedged
Finance

Discount Rates

Question A: Despite the empirical failures of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) in explaining expected stock returns, a shareholder-value maximizing publicly-traded firm should still use the CAPM to calculate the cost of equity in capital budgeting.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
9
Uncertain
7
Comment: The basic CAPM, which uses beta from the return on the stock market, provides a good measure of the cost of equity but must be used smartly and can be improved upon, where critical decisions include time horizon and frequency, and improvements use broader measures of returns.
Question B: The equity risk premium that U.S. publicly traded firms should use in cost of equity calculations in April 2023 is above 6%.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
7
Disagree
7
Comment: The price dividend ratio which has been a good predictor of future returns suggests much lower returns going forward at the moment, as do bounds constructed from the Ian Martin bounds on expected returns.
Finance

Banking Crisis

Question A: Financial regulators in the US and Europe lack the tools and authority to deter runs on banks by uninsured depositors.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Disagree
7
Comment: Focusing on the US, the Fed can lend freely to solvent banks (and bank holding companies) which experience runs by uninsured depositors. And regulators can enforce little risk taking, e.g. requiring that interest rate and credit risk be hedged, which would prevent runs ex ante.
Question B: Not guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank in full would have created substantial damage to the US economy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Uncertain
7
Comment: Had the FDIC not covered uninsured depositors at SVB, uninsured depositors likely would have run from small & medium-sized banks to too-big-to-fail banks, which would have made many banks insolvent by reducing their franchise value and decreased the competitiveness of the sector.
Question C: Fully guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank substantially increases banks’ incentives to engage in excessive risk-taking.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Agree
7
Comment: Uninsured depositors were not monitoring the solvency of their banks prior to the SVB failure. Deposit insurance for all deposits means that bank management and bank equity have an incentive to take too much risk, but they did before the SVC uninsured depositors were made whole.
Question A: By issuing inflation-indexed bonds, and thereby providing a long-term real safe asset for pension funds and retirement savers, governments can make a substantial contribution to social welfare.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
7
Comment: Inflation indexed bonds reduce the need for derivatives to hedge inflation risk and so reduce leverage and complexity in the financial system. They also reduce the governments temptation to inflate away debt, although also the ability to do so in bad times.
Question B: Issuance of inflation-indexed bonds substantially helps government commit to a responsible fiscal and monetary policy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
8
Uncertain
6
Comment: History is replete with examples of countries that borrow and spend their way into crises despite the extreme costs of these crises to the people. And countries that pursue inflationary policies do so for more output in the short term not less debt in the long term.
Finance

Taxing Stock Buybacks

Question A: Large-scale stock buybacks by public corporations provide short-term rewards for shareholders and senior executives at the expense of potentially higher-return corporate investments.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
9
Disagree
8
Comment: Firms buy back shares to pay funds to shareholders who own the company. If firms could not do this, they could instead pay shareholders with higher dividends. Dividends typically lead to higher taxes and lower post-dividend share prices, but not different corporate investment.
Question B: The proposed higher tax on corporate stock buybacks (an increase from 1% to 4%) would generate substantial public revenues.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Disagree
7
Comment: This tax is will raise revenues of 3% of total buybacks and hardly change buyback behavior, so will raise on the order of a few tens of billions of dollars which is a lot of money but not much compared to total tax revenues or what a dividend tax could raise without buybacks.
Question C: The proposed higher tax on corporate stock buybacks would generate a substantial increase in corporate investment.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
9
Disagree
8
Comment: Buybacks are one of many, many ways for firms to use profits that do not involve any change in real corporate investment. Examples include reducing debt, buying or funding other companies, lending funds, paying dividends, or just saving in existing assets or accounts.
Finance

Debt Ceiling

Question A: Missing payments on the US Treasury security obligations for several weeks would pose a substantial risk of a global financial crisis.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
6
Comment: A several week "technical default" by the US could lead to a significant decline in the demand for Treasury debt over years. Markets, anticipating this shift, could cause a large increase in US interest rates and crash in the dollar, which could cause a financial crisis.
Question B: The requirement to periodically increase the debt ceiling measurably reduces the long-run size of the debt.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
8
Disagree
6
Comment: Historically, the debt ceiling has been raised each time we have hit it. It is hard to believe debt to GDP could have risen even more rapidly. And there are technical work-arounds (that we may yet use) that can allow debt to be issued without increasing its face value.
Question A: The SEC’s proposed new rule for stock orders from individual investors is likely to be effective in giving those investors better prices on their trades on average.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
5
Comment: Payment for order flow of individual investors makes the payer effectively a monopolist who only has to provide a lower bid-ask spread than the market spread which reflects more informed traders. Competition for clearing individual trades should leave retail investors better off.
Question B: The new rule would improve the overall operation of the stock market.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
10
Disagree
5
Comment: This regulatory change may increase or decrease the segregation of the trades of individual and institutional investors, and it is theoretically ambiguous which is better for investor welfare.
Question A: Although the reported volatility of asset values in private markets (private equity, buyouts, and venture capital) is lower than that of comparable assets in public markets, their true volatility is broadly similar or greater.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
8
Comment: Smaller assets are more volatile, and private markets typically hold smaller assets. In private markets, there are incentives to report less volatility; accounting and lack of market prices permit it. e.g. pension and endowment returns are smoothed versions of underlying returns.
Question B: Since the global financial crisis, the realized returns on private equities have measurably exceeded the returns on public equities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
No Opinion
Disagree
5
Finance

Cryptocurrency Exchanges

Question A: The collapse of a major crypto intermediary will have little impact on the wider economy and the stability of the traditional financial system.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Agree
7
Comment: Cryptocurrency deposits are not used to fund loans on which business and people depend. There are no effects on the real economy beyond the layoffs from the firms in question, like if a casino were to go bankrupt.
Question B: The collapse of a major crypto intermediary suggests the need for the crypto asset class to be more tightly regulated.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
8
Agree
8
Comment: On the one hand, don't regulate and let crypto intermediaries continue to fail, as most have been doing. On the other hand, ban them because they serve no economic purpose: the entire value proposition of crypto is regulation-free, institution-free, blockchain-based money.
Finance

Passive Investing

The amount of passively invested funds has reached levels at which it has a measurable detrimental effect on market efficiency.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Disagree
7
Comment: Passive investing 1) reduces noise trading by uninformed investors & increases price impact of informed, increasing price informativeness and efficiency of real investment; 2) saves real resources allocated to information fast for trading profits but too slow for real decisions.
Question A: Research on the nature and impact of bank runs has made it possible to limit substantially the wider economic damage from financial crises.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Agree
7
Comment: Examples abound, but US response to the 2008 financial crisis included an alphabet soup of programs, each designed as a roughly optimal mechanism to deal with a particular problem of asymmetric information identified in theoretical and empirical research.
-see background information here

-see background information here

Question B: Reforms of financial regulation since 2008 (and macroprudential policies in some countries) will not substantially reduce the probability of financial crises.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
9
Uncertain
7
Comment: Current regulation is largely predicated on regulators anticipating, measuring, and managing risks inside the financial sector that they sit apart from. Might not work well? Eg last week, an interest rate rise destabilized UK defined-benefit pensions and government debt markets.
Finance

Currency Depreciation

Question A: The costs and risks associated with a sharp fall in the value of sterling outweigh any macroeconomic benefits for the UK of export stimulus due to a weaker currency.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Uncertain
6
Comment: The value of sterling should decline given changes in inflation and in British economic institutions and growth. While it has overshot due to the BOE's low rates, the external exposures that would amplify this decline into a financial crises do not appear to be present.
Question B: Concerns about government finances and debt sustainability can undermine the reserve currency status of a major currency.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
10
Agree
7
Comment: Reserves are held in safe assets. Safe assets must be safe in times of crisis. Times of crisis pose fiscal challenges for countries with fiscal imbalances and high debt levels. The debt of a country with little fiscal space to handle crises is not a good reserve asset.
Finance

Executive Pay

Question A: The typical chief executive officer of a publicly traded corporation in the U.S. is paid more than his or her marginal contribution to the firm's value.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Uncertain
7
Comment: A mediocre CEO does a lot of harm. My uncertainty comes from the fact that CEO compensation comes in part depends on the irrelevant and that some firms depend on competition for the rewards for the top positions as motivation for lower level executives.
Question B: Mandating that U.S. publicly listed corporations must allow shareholders to cast a non-binding vote on executive compensation was a good idea.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Uncertain
7
Comment: Activist shareholders that are paying attention and see overpayment can always push for shareholder votes, but typically, the Board is paying attention to executive pay while most of the time, most shareholders are not.
Finance

Stakeholder Capitalism

Question A: Having companies run to maximize shareholder value creates significant negative externalities for workers and communities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Disagree
8
Comment: Profit maximization leads to productivity and economic growth but also, absent enforcement, to less competition and more carbon emissions.
Question B: Appropriately managed corporations could create significantly greater value than they currently do for a range of stakeholders – including workers, suppliers, customers and community members – with negligible impacts on shareholder value.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
7
Disagree
8
Comment: Corporate management is responding well to the legal environment that makes it profitable to act non-competitively, to pollute, etc.
Question C: Effective mechanisms for boards of directors to ensure that CEOs act in ways that balance the interests of all stakeholders would be straightforward to introduce.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
8
Disagree
8
Comment: There is no simple way to entirely change corporate governance. It would be a mess like Brexit.
Finance

Climate Reporting Mandate

Question A: A mandate for public companies to provide climate-related disclosures (such as their greenhouse gas emissions and carbon footprint) would provide financially material information that enables investors to make better decisions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
7
Comment: While environmental policies do pose material risks, carbon footprint mainly matter for all investors because it affects stock liquidity, breadth of ownership, and investor activism all of which matter for stock values.
Question B: A mandate for public companies to provide climate-related disclosures would provide material information that enables investors to make better decisions with regards to non-financial objectives (such as aiding portfolio choice based on ESG principles).
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Agree
7
Question C: A mandate for public companies to provide climate-related disclosures would induce them to reduce their climate impact substantially.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
6