Rick Van der Ploeg image

Rick Van der Ploeg

25 Votes

Oxford

  • Oxford, UK

About

  • Professor of Economics at the University of Oxford
  • Research Director of OXCARRE (Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies)
  • Vice Chair of the UNESCO World Heritage Committee (2003-2007)

Voting History

Question A: The European Union's AI Act was approved by the European Parliament in March 2024: https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/the-act/

The EU's legislation to regulate artificial intelligence is likely to put European technology firms at a substantial disadvantage to their competitors elsewhere in the world.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Disagree
5
Question B: By providing a clear set of rules, the EU's legislation on artificial intelligence is likely to enhance research and innovation by firms building the new technology.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Disagree
4
Question A: Europe’s economic growth performance over the last 25 years has been measurably better than it would have been in the absence of the single currency.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
7
Question B: With euro area member states having given up their ability to carry out independent monetary policy, it is substantially more difficult for them to respond effectively to country-specific macroeconomic disturbances.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Uncertain
8
Europe

Drug Policy

A legalized and carefully regulated market for cannabis would lead to measurably higher social welfare than a system of prohibition.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Agree
6
Comment: In the Netherlands coffee shops sell cannabis. However, strictly speaking it is illegal to do. The Dutch government tolerates it provided they do not sell hard drugs, engage in tax evasion etcetera. So it is allowed provided they behave.
Question A: The economic and financial sanctions against Russia are substantially limiting its ability to wage war on Ukraine.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
5
Comment: Although it is not kicking in yet, at least Russia has to sell its gas at huge discounts and many high-tech products are not available or only at higher costs.
Question B: In the absence of continuing flows of Western economic aid, Ukraine's wartime economy will be substantially compromised.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Agree
7
Comment: Without the aid they will not be able to feed and shelter the population, and will the war effort be much undermined. Money and weapons are needed.
Europe

Germany’s Debt Brake

Question A: A constitutional rule that limits the size of budget deficits that governments can run as a share of GDP is an effective way to impose discipline on a country’s public finances.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Uncertain
7
Comment: Due to common pool problem and sometimes weak ministers of finance, it is helpful to have such a rule provided it allows leeway for productive government investments ("golden rule").
Question B: Germany’s debt brake is a substantial constraint on vital public investment in physical/digital infrastructure and the green transition.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
7
Comment: A debt brake indeed carries the danger that it crowd out productive public investments (as has been the case with the Maastricht criteria).
Europe

Argentina

Question A:

The fundamental cause of Argentina’s high inflation is unfunded fiscal commitments that are being financed by the central bank.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
7
Agree
7
Comment: Unfunded fiscal deficits leads to explosion of monetary growth and consequent inflation and depreciations of the currency.
Question B: Even if Argentina could marshal the resources to make a full switch to using US dollars for domestic transactions, it would substantially increase the volatility of Argentine GDP.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
7
Europe

Public Corporations

Question A: It is best for society if the management of publicly traded corporations only considers the impact of their decisions on customers, employees, and community members to the extent that these effects feedback to affect shareholder wealth.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
6
Disagree
6
Comment: Taking a stakeholder perspective including the impact of the company on justice, distribution, climate, risk of conflict, etcetera is better as a long-term objective.
Question B: The typical chief executive officer of a publicly traded corporation is paid more than his or her marginal contribution to the firm's value.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
6
Uncertain
6
Comment: Economy of superstars. Not enough countervailing power on boards of companies.
Question A: By enabling women’s life choices about education, work and family, the contraceptive pill made a substantial contribution to closing gender gaps in the labor market for professionals.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
5
Agree
7
Question B: Gender gaps in today’s labor market arise less from differences in educational and occupational choices than from the differential career impact of parenthood and social norms around men's and women’s roles in childrearing.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
7
Question C: The gender gap in pay would be substantially reduced if firms had fewer incentives to offer disproportionate rewards to individuals who work long and/or inflexible hours.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
5
Agree
6
Question A: The EU's taxonomy for sustainable activities - a classification system that defines criteria for economic activities that are aligned with a net zero trajectory by 2050 and the broader environmental goals other than climate - is an effective way to steer greener investment and the energy transition by firms and financial institutions.


Details on the taxonomy are here:
https://finance.ec.europa.eu/sustainable-finance/tools-and-standards/eu-taxonomy-sustainable-activities_en
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
7
Uncertain
6
Comment: I fear that nuclear energy and natural gas will be counted as green and sustainable.
Question B: Use of the EU taxonomy for sustainable activities is likely to stifle important innovations, including in green technology.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
7
Uncertain
5
Comment: If natural gas and nuclear are viewed as green, financial and other resources for R&D will be detracted from real green R&D investments.
Question C: On balance, use of the taxonomy in EU directives and regulation is likely to be net beneficial to European citizens.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Uncertain
6
Comment: Better something than nothing.
Europe

Fiscal Rules

Question A: Fiscal rules on budget deficits and public debt levels are an essential part of a sound fiscal framework.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Uncertain
7
Comment: Without it the temptation of spending ministers to spend too much is just to great. Especially in coalition systems one needs strong rules to keep good discipline.
Question B: Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, budget deficits in Europe have been measurably lower, on average, than would have been the case without common budget rules.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Uncertain
7
Comment: However, in times of crises, starting with Germany, countries have been quite happy to not abide by the rules.
Question C: Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, the path of GDP growth in Europe has been measurably more stable than would have been the case without common budget rules.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
6
Disagree
6
Question A: Non-bank financial intermediaries pose a substantial threat to financial stability.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
6
Question B: Regulating the leverage and liquidity of non-bank financial intermediaries would substantially improve financial stability.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
7
Question C: Given current regulations, non-bank financial intermediaries should not have access to central bank support.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
6
Europe

Greedflation

Question A: A significant factor behind today’s inflation in Europe is dominant corporations in uncompetitive markets taking advantage of their market power to raise prices in order to increase their profit margins.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Disagree
6
Question B: A significant factor behind today’s inflation in some sectors of the European economy is dominant corporations in uncompetitive markets taking advantage of their market power to raise prices in order to increase their profit margins.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
6
Uncertain
6
Question C: A significant factor behind today’s inflation in some sectors of the European economy (both competitive and concentrated) is distortions in the aggregate economy where supply does not meet demand.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Uncertain
6
Question A: If countries could impose a ban on the use of ChatGPT and similar generative AI chatbot services that is technologically effective, they would experience a measurably negative impact on national innovation.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
7
Agree
6
Comment: It is there to see. So many companies are already using these tools in the legal sector, the business sector, education and elsewhere.
Question B: Regardless of whether advances in AI spur productivity growth, they are likely to create deep challenges for society – in areas from labor markets to politics, and including disinformation, privacy, crime, and warfare – that will be difficult to anticipate, plan for, and contain.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
7
Agree
6
Question A: Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to a substantial increase in the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Uncertain
5
Comment: One might expect AI to fundamentally alter the way business is conducted in many spheres of the economy. Not just replacing stuff done by humans before but also new possibilities leading to new growth prospects.
Question B: Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a substantially bigger impact on the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades than the internet has had over the past two decades.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
6
Uncertain
5
Question A: Preserving the financial viability of France's state pension system is better achieved by raising the effective retirement age than by raising contributions while working.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
7
Agree
7
Comment: By more people working longer and postponing retirement, vacancies can be filled and the economy can grow upon which it becomes easier to finance retirement.
Question B: Preserving the financial viability of France's state pension system is better achieved by raising the effective retirement age than by reducing benefits once retired.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
7
Comment: Raising the effective retirement age will have some effect, but remember that the French get less pension when they retire before the official retirement age.
Europe

Banking Crisis

Question A: Financial regulators in the US and Europe lack the tools and authority to deter runs on banks by uninsured depositors.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Uncertain
7
Comment: By demanding buffer holdings from commercial banks and having deposit insurance, runs might be avoided.
Question B: Not guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank in full would have created substantial damage to the US economy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Uncertain
7
Comment: Not having deposit insurance would increase the chance of a bank run
Question C: Fully guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank substantially increases banks’ incentives to engage in excessive risk-taking.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
8
Comment: There is a moral hazard issue, which I hope to be less bad than the cure.
Europe

Windsor Framework

Question A: The amendments to the Northern Ireland protocol agreed by the UK and the EU are unlikely to have a measurable direct impact on UK growth over the next two years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Disagree
5
Comment: Not sure. It will definitely boost economy of Northern Ireland. It may even be at the expense of the economy of Great Britain. It is all madness, since before Brexit most Northern Ireland and Great Britain already had access to each others' markets and those of the EU.
Question B: If renewed UK-EU scientific cooperation were achieved in the wake of the Windsor framework, it would be likely to have a measurable positive impact on UK growth over the next five years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Disagree
6
Comment: The demise of Horizon, ERC and other EU grants is a disaster for UK universities, and the potential innovations necessary to fuel growth. I do not have much confidence that this will be resolved in the same manner as it was before Brexit.
Europe

The Invisible Hand

Question A: Adam Smith’s metaphor of the invisible hand has been foundational to the development of modern economic theory.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Agree
8
Comment: Smith and later Hayek have shown us the importance of using markets rather than Stalinist planning. And of course the Arrow-Debreu-Hahn theory of general equilibrium is taught to all students.
Question B: Adam Smith’s metaphor of the invisible hand has been commonly misinterpreted as advocacy for pure laissez-faire capitalism.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Agree
8
Comment: Adam Smith both in the Wealth of Nations and in the Theory of Moral Sentiments has warned for market failures and inequalities which need to be corrected.
Europe

State Aid

Question A: Loosening regulations on state aid to allow targeted incentives for companies in certain sectors will substantially improve the EU’s relative attractiveness for corporate investment.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Uncertain
5
Comment: Loosening state aid regulations will curb competition and all the benefits in terms of price and innovation that brings. It might help to get some green companies of the ground, but it is better to persuade the US to stop doing this.
Question B: Loosening regulations on state aid will give a substantial advantage to the economies of EU members with stronger public finances.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Uncertain
5
Comment: If a country is going to it and it is economically worthwhile, then it should be possible to borrow for such state investments in private companies.
Question C: Even if looser regulations on state aid are temporary, they risk permanent damage to the EU’s longstanding competition policy regime.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
6
Comment: It is less damaging if it is temporary, but the door has been opened and more damage may be done on future occasions.
Europe

Electric Vehicles

Question A: Without government intervention, take-up of electric vehicles will be substantially less than is desirable to reduce carbon emissions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
6
Comment: There are tipping points due to positive feedback effects resulting from peer effects and learning by doing. It is imperative that policy makers ensure that the economy transitions from the ICE to electrical vehicles by shifting the equilibrium.
-see background information here
Question B: To encourage greater take-up of electric vehicles, public expenditure on infrastructure to support them (such as charging stations) is likely to be more cost-effective than providing equivalent amounts as tax credits/purchase rebates for buyers.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Uncertain
5
Comment: One needs both the charging stations and the electrical vehicles. Local governments also have a key role to play to get the space for this.
Europe

Twitter

Question A: Network externalities give Twitter an incumbent advantage that will slow substantially the migration of users who would prefer alternative platforms.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
4
Agree
7
Comment: There are already plenty of other platforms to choose from.
Question B: As of now, there needs to be more government regulation around Twitter’s content moderation and personal data protection.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
5
Question A: The carbon border adjustment mechanism will ensure that the European Union’s green objectives are not undermined by the relocation of EU production in the sectors under the mechanism to non-EU countries with less ambitious climate policies (‘carbon leakage').
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
7
Agree
6
Comment: Now the biggest polluters in Europe get free permits and do not face a proper incentive to cut emissions. With a BTA there will be a level playing field and these firms can pay the permit price too without risking dirty commission from outside the EU.
Question B: To the extent that the carbon border adjustment mechanism is effective in reducing emissions and carbon leakage, it will impose substantial costs on the economies of poorer countries.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
6
Uncertain
5
Comment: On the one hand, poorer countries will find it more difficult to export CO2-intensive products to the EU and will thus be worse off. On the other hand, it will encourage them also to speed up their green transition.
Question A: Research on the nature and impact of bank runs has made it possible to limit the occurrence of financial crises and the economic damage they cause.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
8
Comment: The Diamond-Dybvig framework has increased our understanding of bank runs long before the global financial crisis. Also, what can be done to lower risk of runs (e.g., sufficient reserves) is well known.
Question B: Despite repeated reforms of financial regulation (and macroprudential policies in some countries), there will always be occasional financial crises.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
8
Comment: One can at most curb the risk of bank runs. However, to bring down risk to almost zero would be "too" prudent and would make it more difficult to keep the economy going. There is thus a trade-off where one wants to bring down risk of bank runs but not by too much.
Europe

Bankers’ Bonus Cap

Question A: The UK’s removal of the cap on bankers' bonuses (introduced by the EU in 2014 and which limits payouts to two times annual base salary) will provide a measurable boost to the country’s economic growth.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Disagree
7
Comment: It will make bankers richer and more reckless. Not clear at all why this would stimulate the economy.
Question B: Removing the cap on bankers' bonuses will measurably enhance the global competitiveness of the UK’s financial services sector.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
6
Uncertain
6
Comment: It might. It might not. Most bankers would increase base salary anyway if there is a cap
Question C: Removing the cap on bankers' bonuses will pose a measurable risk to financial stability in the UK.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Disagree
6
Europe

Oil Price Cap

Question A: A price cap imposed by the G7/EU countries on purchases of Russian oil and oil-related products (and which applies to all importers of Russian oil using Western trade infrastructure, shipping, and insurance) would be an effective measure to reduce the flow of revenues to Russia.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Uncertain
6
Comment: A boycot of oil would be better. For oil (not gas), some of it will be sold instead at a discount to China and India. Hence, oil from Saudi Arabia will become available for the West and thus price of oil may fall.
Question B: The oil price cap imposed by the G7/EU countries will not have a substantial effect on the world oil price (such as the Brent crude benchmark).
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Uncertain
5
Comment: As I already said, China and India will buy from Russia oil at a discount rather than from Saudi Arabia and others. Hence, this lower the price of oil for the West too.