Stefan Nagel image

Stefan Nagel

27 Votes

Chicago Booth

  • Chicago, IL

About

  • Fama Family Distinguished Service Professor of Finance
  • Executive Editor, Journal of Finance (2016–2022)
  • Editor, Review of Financial Studies (2014-2015)

Voting History

Question A: Allowing short selling of financial securities, such as stocks and government bonds, leads to prices that, on average, are closer to their fundamental values.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Agree
8
Question B: When short sellers start to establish substantial short positions in a stock, the stock is likely to have been overvalued.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Agree
7
Comment: See the evidence in the paper "Go Down Fighting: Short Sellers vs. Firms" by Owen Lamont in RAPS in 2012.
-see background information here
Question C: Requiring investors to disclose short positions in a stock at the equivalent threshold as they are required to do for long positions would improve the informativeness of stock prices.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
9
Agree
6
Comment: Short interest is already disclosed aggregated at the stock level, and some short sellers widely broadcast when they have taken positions, so it's not clear whether there would be a further measurable gain in informativeness from disclosing investors' disaggregated positions.
With some measures of concentration by market capitalization within broad US stock market indices at an all-time high, investors seeking a well-diversified passive equity portfolio should consider alternatives to market-cap-weighted indices.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
9
Disagree
7
Finance

Tesla

Tesla shareholders are likely to benefit substantially from the decision by the Delaware Court of Chancery to void Elon Musk's $56 billion remuneration package.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Disagree
6
Comment: Even if the process of awarding the pay package was flawed, as the court seems to have argued, this does not mean that the award was in conflict with the interests shareholders. The stock price also didn't move much, so likely a non-event for shareholder value.
On 10 January 2024, the SEC approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products:
https://www.sec.gov/news/statement/gensler-statement-spot-bitcoin-011023\

The SEC's approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products makes investors overall measurably better off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Uncertain
7
Comment: Investors get a non-interest bearing asset without getting any of the purported licit and illicit transaction benefits of bitcoin(That said, it is not the SEC's job to prevent investors from making bad investments. What the SEC should or should not do is a different question).
The Biden Administration's recommendation to lower the real discount rate used in the cost and benefit analysis of federal regulations to 2 percent (from the current levels of 3 or 7 percent) will substantially improve regulatory analysis.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
6
Comment: 2 percent is close to long-term historical average real interest rates and as such a reasonable rate for discounting certainty equivalents (which is what Circular No. A-4 suggests to do).
Finance

Modern Portfolio Theory

Question A: Harry Markowitz, the Nobel Prize-winning pioneer of modern portfolio theory, passed away earlier this year:
https://afajof.org/news/in-memoriam-harry-markowitz-past-president-of-the-american-finance-association-1927-2023/

Application of the principles of modern portfolio theory allows investors in practice to achieve substantial improvements in the risk-expected return trade-off relative to naive strategies such as equal-weighting that do not take account of return covariances.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
9
Agree
8
Comment: There are a variety of practical hurdles (e.g., estimation of means and covariance, non-tradable wealth) but an investor certainly benefits from applying the basic principles (e.g., that covariances matter for portfolio risk, not individual asset variances)
Question B: Widespread adoption of modern portfolio theory by investors has substantially improved the efficiency of capital allocation in financial markets.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
6
Agree
7
Comment: Adoption should have helped ensure that risk that is in principle diversifiable doesn't command risk premia, which in turn should improve capital allocation efficiency, but I'm not sure there is empirical evidence that this has been a substantial effect.
Question A: The Federal Reserve has begun quantitative tightening (QT) to reduce the size of its balance sheet. Fed holdings of Treasury securities have declined by $800 billion relative to the March 2020 peak. The Fed currently holds $4.9 trillion of Treasury securities, significantly larger than the $2.5 trillion holdings prior to the Covid pandemic.

A reduction in Fed holdings of Treasury securities measurably increases the interest rate on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
6
Comment: Existing estimates suggest that there may be measurable effect, but it's likely small. See, e.g.
-see background information here
Question B: A reduction in Fed holdings of Treasury securities measurably increases volatility in the Treasury market.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
6
Comment: At least temporarily, there may be an effect on volatility, due to Treasury market plumbing issues, until the securities find their way into the portfolios of long-term holders.
Question A: September 2023 was the 25th anniversary of the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM). In response to LTCM's troubles, the Federal Reserve orchestrated a multi-billion dollar rescue package by a consortium of banks and it cut the Federal funds rate target by 75 basis points within six weeks.

The hedge fund sector's contribution to systemic risk is substantially lower today than at the time of LTCM.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Uncertain
6
Comment: Due changes in regulation after the financial crisis, prime brokers are less willing to extend financing with extreme leverage/little collateral; counterparty risk and collateral management has improved.
Question B: Financial market participants' expectation that the Fed will aggressively ease monetary policy in response to financial market dislocations is a substantial source of financial instability.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
7
Uncertain
6
Comment: I agree it is likely a source of instability, but I am uncertain whether it is a substantial one (considering all other sources of financial instability).
Question A: SEC Announcement: https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-155

The benefits of the new SEC rules on private funds - which require private funds to provide transparency to their investors regarding the fees and expenses and other terms of their relationship with private fund advisers and the performance of such private funds - substantially exceed their costs.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
4
Disagree
6
Comment: The need for these rules seems unclear. The potential risks and harms outlined by the SEC in the final rule do not seem compelling.
Question B: The new SEC rules will have a substantially negative impact on the industry by stifling capital formation and reducing competition.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
4
Disagree
6
Comment: The burden of the rules does not seem big enough to cause a substantial negative impact.
Question C: It is appropriate policy for the SEC to impose such rules on private funds even though the investors (limited partners) are sophisticated entities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
4
Uncertain
7
Question A: New Money Market Fund (MMF) Rules: The SEC adopted amendments to the MMF rules, including a new mandatory liquidity fee for institutional prime and tax-exempt funds. The liquidity fee would trigger when daily net redemptions exceed five percent and when the costs associated with such redemptions are more than de minimus. https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-129

The new liquidity fee will substantially reduce the likelihood of runs on MMFs.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Disagree
6
Comment: There is still an incentive to run on the fund before the threshold is reached at which the liquidity fee is imposed.
Question B: The new liquidity fee will cause a substantial shift of assets under management from institutional prime and tax-exempt funds to government MMFs (which are exempt from the fees).
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Disagree
7
Question A: The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on working and shopping habits has not been fully priced into current private valuations of downtown commercial properties in major cities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
7
Uncertain
6
Comment: Private valuations are clearly lagging the available public valuation indicators (e.g., REITs)
Question B: A continued fall in commercial real estate valuations would trigger another round of banking panic.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
6
Uncertain
6
Comment: It seems likely that a lot of problems with CRE loans are still hidden in many banks' balance sheets and hold-to-maturity accounting, but whether a panic might arise (given the current level of official support for the banking system) is uncertain.
Finance

ESG Factors

Question A: Regulation that allows state pension funds to consider environmental, social, and governance factors in investment decisions only if these factors are material for risk and expected return would make retirees measurably worse off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Disagree
5
Question B: Regulation that prevents state pension funds from considering environmental, social, and governance factors in investment decisions even if these factors are material for risk and expected return would make retirees measurably worse off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
Question A: Since maturity transformation is an inherent feature of commercial banks' business model, some duration mismatch between assets and liabilities is unavoidable.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Agree
8
Comment: Maturity-mismatch need not imply duration-mismatch. Long-term illiquid assets can have floating interest rates. It's a choice of banks to lend (or invest) at fixed rather than variable interest rates (this choice in turn may be influenced by regulation and accounting rules).
Question B: For the purposes of capital regulation, banks should be required to mark their holdings of Treasury and Agency securities to market at all times (even though their loans are not marked to market).
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Uncertain
7
Finance

Discount Rates

Question A: Despite the empirical failures of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) in explaining expected stock returns, a shareholder-value maximizing publicly-traded firm should still use the CAPM to calculate the cost of equity in capital budgeting.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Uncertain
7
Comment: Despite the empirical failures in explaining average stock returns in historical data, the CAPM may still deliver the right cost of equity for long-run value maximization (Stein, 1996, "Rational capital budgeting in an irrational world", Journal of Business.)
Question B: The equity risk premium that U.S. publicly traded firms should use in cost of equity calculations in April 2023 is above 6%.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
9
Disagree
7
Comment: Stock market valuation levels are too high relative to long-term real interest rates for a 6% equity premium to be plausible.
Finance

Banking Crisis

Question A: Financial regulators in the US and Europe lack the tools and authority to deter runs on banks by uninsured depositors.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Disagree
7
Comment: They don't lack the tools, but the problem is that using them to deter runs effectively makes uninsured depositors insured, which defeats the purpose of limits on deposit insurance.
Question B: Not guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank in full would have created substantial damage to the US economy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
7
Comment: Not clear to me that guaranteeting, say, only 90% would have caused huge damage, especially since this would still have left the option of being more aggressive in subsequent cases if the runs spread.
Question C: Fully guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank substantially increases banks’ incentives to engage in excessive risk-taking.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
7
Agree
7
Question A: By issuing inflation-indexed bonds, and thereby providing a long-term real safe asset for pension funds and retirement savers, governments can make a substantial contribution to social welfare.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
7
Comment: Based on economic principles, this seems right. On the other hand, if inflation-indexed bonds were in short supply, they should trade at a premium price. But the evidence indicates that they trade at a discount. Perhaps the discount is all due to illiquidity, though.
Question B: Issuance of inflation-indexed bonds substantially helps government commit to a responsible fiscal and monetary policy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Uncertain
6
Comment: To some extent yes, but fiscally-challenged governments in world history have been inventive in overcoming legal and technical constraints. This may limit the commitment implicit in inflation-indexed bonds issuance.
Finance

Taxing Stock Buybacks

Question A: Large-scale stock buybacks by public corporations provide short-term rewards for shareholders and senior executives at the expense of potentially higher-return corporate investments.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
8
Disagree
8
Comment: Repurchases do not artificially boost stock prices in the short-run and they help prevent companies from overinvesting in low-return projects. Capital can then be put to better use elsewhere. (Whether different taxation of repurchases and dividends is good is a different matter)
Question B: The proposed higher tax on corporate stock buybacks (an increase from 1% to 4%) would generate substantial public revenues.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Disagree
7
Comment: Relative to other sources of revenue, the revenue from the tax on buybacks seem quite small.
Question C: The proposed higher tax on corporate stock buybacks would generate a substantial increase in corporate investment.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
8
Disagree
8
Finance

Debt Ceiling

Question A: Missing payments on the US Treasury security obligations for several weeks would pose a substantial risk of a global financial crisis.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
6
Comment: Given the role of Treasurys as default-free benchmark in global financial markets, there is a risk of major disruptions (or, possibly, large Federal Reserve interventions to prevent disruptions).
Question B: The requirement to periodically increase the debt ceiling measurably reduces the long-run size of the debt.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
1
Disagree
6
Question A: The SEC’s proposed new rule for stock orders from individual investors is likely to be effective in giving those investors better prices on their trades on average.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: The proposed changes seem likely to enhance competition for retail orders.
Question B: The new rule would improve the overall operation of the stock market.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Disagree
5
Question A: Although the reported volatility of asset values in private markets (private equity, buyouts, and venture capital) is lower than that of comparable assets in public markets, their true volatility is broadly similar or greater.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
8
Comment: There is plenty of evidence that reported PE valuations adjustments are delayed and smoothed, which hides volatility. There is no economic reason why values of firms in PE firms should have different volatility than values of comparable publicly traded firms.
Question B: Since the global financial crisis, the realized returns on private equities have measurably exceeded the returns on public equities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
8
Disagree
5
Comment: Perhaps yes, but the answer depends substantially on the discount one applies to current valuations to adjust for the lack of adjustment to recent declines in public market equity values.
Finance

Cryptocurrency Exchanges

Question A: The collapse of a major crypto intermediary will have little impact on the wider economy and the stability of the traditional financial system.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
7
Question B: The collapse of a major crypto intermediary suggests the need for the crypto asset class to be more tightly regulated.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
8
Comment: Participants in this space are learning that absence of supervision and regulation means that scammers are running the show. If anything in this sector survives, it will be under some form of tighter regulation.
Finance

Passive Investing

The amount of passively invested funds has reached levels at which it has a measurable detrimental effect on market efficiency.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
9
Disagree
7
Comment: The smoking gun of reduced efficiency would be greater aggregate gross outperformance of active managers. No sign of this so far. Trend towards passive did not only take capital away from skilled active managers, but also from noise-trading active managers and retail investors.
Question A: Research on the nature and impact of bank runs has made it possible to limit substantially the wider economic damage from financial crises.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
7
Comment: With emphasis that "made it possible to limit" is not the same as "has in practice, everywhere limited"
Question B: Reforms of financial regulation since 2008 (and macroprudential policies in some countries) will not substantially reduce the probability of financial crises.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Uncertain
7
Comment: Banks are funded with more equity than before, which helps. But vulnerabilities may shift into poorly regulated areas. Actions taken by central banks to fight crises in the past may have unintended consequences in the future. On balance a bit better, but not much.
Finance

Currency Depreciation

Question A: The costs and risks associated with a sharp fall in the value of sterling outweigh any macroeconomic benefits for the UK of export stimulus due to a weaker currency.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Uncertain
6
Comment: Getting inflation under control is a main challenge in the current situation and weak sterling makes this more difficult.
Question B: Concerns about government finances and debt sustainability can undermine the reserve currency status of a major currency.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
7
Finance

Executive Pay

Question A: The typical chief executive officer of a publicly traded corporation in the U.S. is paid more than his or her marginal contribution to the firm's value.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
7
Question B: Mandating that U.S. publicly listed corporations must allow shareholders to cast a non-binding vote on executive compensation was a good idea.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Uncertain
7
Finance

Stakeholder Capitalism

Question A: Having companies run to maximize shareholder value creates significant negative externalities for workers and communities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Disagree
8
Comment: There is no reason why shareholder max. should lead firms to internalize these externalities (unless, e.g., incentivized by regulation).
Question B: Appropriately managed corporations could create significantly greater value than they currently do for a range of stakeholders – including workers, suppliers, customers and community members – with negligible impacts on shareholder value.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Disagree
8
Comment: Seems unlikely to be possible without some cost for shareholders
Question C: Effective mechanisms for boards of directors to ensure that CEOs act in ways that balance the interests of all stakeholders would be straightforward to introduce.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Disagree
8
Finance

Climate Reporting Mandate

Question A: A mandate for public companies to provide climate-related disclosures (such as their greenhouse gas emissions and carbon footprint) would provide financially material information that enables investors to make better decisions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Agree
7
Comment: May help with climate-risk exposure assessment, but not clear that the benefits are financially material
Question B: A mandate for public companies to provide climate-related disclosures would provide material information that enables investors to make better decisions with regards to non-financial objectives (such as aiding portfolio choice based on ESG principles).
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
7
Question C: A mandate for public companies to provide climate-related disclosures would induce them to reduce their climate impact substantially.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
6