Question A:
Freer movement of goods and services across borders within Europe has made the average western European citizen better off since the 1980s.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Freer movement of goods and services across borders within Europe has made many low-skilled western European citizens worse off since the 1980s.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Philippe Aghion |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Free trade increases the efficiency of the economy. Although there significant distributional issues, the average person is better off.
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It would be hard to argue it has been worse for the average western citizen
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 Richard Baldwin |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Author of leading textbook on Econ of European integration
-see background information here |
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 Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Europe, including the UK, is a highly integrated economic region. Across a whole set of services, manufacturing and agricultural products.
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 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Although there is no counter-factual, many studies suggest that European integration has increased average GDP per capita.
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In spite of some costs due to the common agricultural policy, the benefits of specialization have allowed a more efficient allocation
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Access to a larger variety of goods and services, at lower prices. A higher standard of living overall.
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 Luis Garicano |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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the questions asks about movements WITHIN Europe: here there is no doubt
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A body of empirical evidence and theory suggests gains from European integration.
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Martin Hellwig |
Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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But not uniform increases: stronger in Eastern Europe.
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 Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Citizens, not workers or consumers are evaluated. Gains from trade have probably increased in terms of averaging across Europeans.
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 Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I am not a trade economist by specialization, which explains why I selected somewhat limited confidence.
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Especially in the long run.
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Greater integration has led to classical gains from trade through specialization, as well as new gains from exploiting supply chains
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 Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I'd have chosen "meaningless" if I could have, since "average citizen" is a dangerous fiction. Intra-EU trade has clearly increased GDP
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This statements is not only consistent with what economic theory predicts, but also with substantial evidence from several studies.
-see background information here |
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Trade allows more specialization and this increases efficiency so there is more variety of goods available at lower cost
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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For consumers, there has been an astonishing increase in variety for all goods and a significant reduction in the real prices of durables.
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Standard economic theory arguments in favour of free trade seem to apply fairly well within Europe.
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Numerous studies, especially of the impact of single market
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I agree but evidence on productivity suggests that the gains from this kind of liberalisation have been smaller than anticipated.
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Much evidence on more competition, economies of scale and of scope.
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 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Competition, lower prices, more innovation
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Philippe Aghion |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some workers are made worse off but as consumers they are probably better off.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The sentiment of many low-skilled workers is that they might have been made worse off. This is probably true for some but not clear how many
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Richard Baldwin |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A set of changes including rules on union bargaining and skill-biased tech change that have put downward pressure on low skilled male wages.
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In most Western EU countries, inequalities of disposable income have not increased at least up to the crisis.
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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but appropriate training and labour market policies have the overall impact of free trade positive for almost everyone in some countries
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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European competition has led to a reduction in low skilled jobs that combined with a larger supply coming from low income countries
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Possibly, and at least in the short run, due to the reallocation of manufacturing activities in low wage new EU members.
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Luis Garicano |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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again the question is about trade within europe, thus no doubts
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some low-skilled workers have undoubtedly been made worse off, but we do not know if many have, any my sense is that it is not many.
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I think competition to Asia may have had this effect but not openness within Europe, except perhaps the enlargement to the eastern European
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Martin Hellwig |
Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some yes; many no. But this is measuring economic wellbeing. Loss of identity, community, social certainties would be an offset.
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Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Gains from trade have increased the extent to which redistribution via the social security system can be effective.
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Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I think mist low-wage competition is from outside of Europe. Of course some always lose from trade. But many low-skilled workers gain too.
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Benefit from lower prices but neg. employment effects; net effect depends on horizon & transfers. Bigger effect for them is technology
-see background information here |
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is not true that many low-skilled workers have lost out, especially considering improved quality and lower prices; but some have lost
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Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Intra-EU trade has hurt some via outsourcing to Eastern Europe but not huge numbers I guess -- extra-EU trade more the problem here.
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Intra-EU trade expanded employment opportunities. Some displacement of low-skill workers occurred, but mostly due to non-EU imports.
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Trade within western Europe is mostly intra-industry trade
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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it has made some western workers worse off but not many because of competition from lower-cost eastern nations
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Free movement of goods and (not all) services has benefited low-skilled as well as high-skilled; migration may have harmed some low-skilled.
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some low-skilled workers worse off because of job outsourcing. Compensations to losers not adequate. But there are also gains to consumers
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Overall income growth is greater; no obvious differential impact by skill (all relatively wealthy countries). Our Brexit analysis summarises
-see background information here -see background information here |
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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hugely heterogenous - strongly positive for Germany etc., probably a small minus in places with a weaker manufacturing base
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Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eastern European immigration has had limited effects on wages in Western Europe. Trade liberalisation with non-EU areas more important.
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Usual RIcardian redistribution as many firms have closed down. Many people recovered but some did not.
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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At best true for very specific sectors of labor market (e.g., construction).
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