Question A:
High volatility in the prices of crypto assets such as Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and Ethereum largely reflects movements in investor sentiment rather than news about potential sources of fundamental value (such as possible applications, or use in illicit transactions).
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Given existing regulation of the financial system, as crypto assets grow in value and become more connected to the rest of the system, the fluctuations in their valuations will pose a serious risk to financial stability in advanced economies.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question C:
Private unbacked crypto assets serve no important economic purpose.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I don't think there is widely accepted evidence on this yet.
|
||||
 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Oriana Bandiera |
London School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Who can be sure - crypto trading and ownership is deliberately opaque
|
||||
 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
with the modulo that the perception of the future regulatory landscape also influences price movements
|
||||
 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Sergei Guriev |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Sentiment is more of a stationary variable, which is unlikely to produce price swings regularly.
|
||||
 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Clearly speculation drives much of the vola, but also evidence that hashrate, network size or more trad pricing factors matter.
-see background information here |
||||
 Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The 'fundamentals' - even the price of oil - don't show volatility anywhere near that of Bitcoin et al.
|
||||
 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Imran Rasul |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
This is true for stocks as well (Campbell-Shiller). Even more so for something as flimsy as crypto
-see background information here |
||||
 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
"Largely" is important.
|
||||
 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I think it depends on who holds then and in what quantities.
|
||||
|
Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
But maybe in that scenario the price fluctuations of dominant currencies will be less pronounced?
|
||||
|
Oriana Bandiera |
London School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Not sure their value will ever rise to be materially important at the systemic level
|
||||
|
Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Sergei Guriev |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
"Serious" may be overstating, but bringing them inside the regulatory perimeter clearly desirable -- also on consumer protection grounds.
|
||||
|
Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
There is a rising risk of contagion into the regulated banking sector if crypto assets become part of the asset universe held by banks.
|
||||
|
Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Agree they *could* pose a risk but currently risk is still small. Use of crypto could pose challenges to local currency monetary policy.
-see background information here -see background information here |
||||
|
Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Perhaps one day, but today we are still very far from such situation. Moreover, regulation is already happening, at least in Europe.
|
||||
|
Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
There is no macropru regulation covering crypto assets and DeFi. Crypto derivatives already $3trn notional and growing very fast. Etc.
-see background information here |
||||
|
Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Imran Rasul |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Volatility in asset prices may cause instability if associated with leverage. Not the case for crypto now (and hope it'll not become so)
|
||||
|
Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
They pose a risk but not (yet) a serious risk.
|
||||
|
Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
We don't know they will grow in value. Provided exposure of the banking sector is limited, there may not be financial stability issues.
|
||||
|
Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
It is difficult for me to understand why there is no regulation on these inherently risky products.
|
||||
|
Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
Question C Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
They are useful for illegal transactions. In mots cases these are undesirable but in some not, e.g. taking money out of repressive countries
|
||||
|
Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Oriana Bandiera |
London School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
They are useful for illegal activity. That is privately useful even if it is publicly damaging.
|
||||
|
Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Ilegal transactions, lower transaction costs. All these are nonnegligible, but cannot explain volatility
|
||||
|
Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Sergei Guriev |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
There might be some future added-value applications conveying social benefits
|
||||
|
Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
If "important" means 'factual' rather than 'desired', then the answer is yes; it includes betting, informal markets, crime, laundering.
|
||||
|
Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Currently they are mainly a new technology, but they could eventually serve a purpose (e.g., be embedded in a digital platform ecosystem)
-see background information here |
||||
|
Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
These are purely speculative instruments that do not in any useful way fulfill the functions of money nor have any relation to real economy.
|
||||
|
Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Imran Rasul |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Assets can be combined in so many ways to shift risk.
|
||||
|
Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Certainly no beneficial economic purpose.
|
||||
|
Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
very useful - for extortion and other illegal activities. Incomprehensible that cash is criminalized and crypto allowed
|
||||
|
Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Private crypto currencies are a solution in search of a problem. They serve no constructive economic purpose.
|
||||
|
Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
That is if you do not qualify crime, mafia and tax evasion as economic activities.
|
||||
|
Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
