Janice Eberly image

Janice Eberly

15 Votes

Northwestern Kellogg

  • Evanston, IL

About

  • James R. and Helen D. Russell Professor of Finance
  • Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury (2011- 2013)
  • Academic Advisory Panel, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and New York

Voting History

Question A: Allowing short selling of financial securities, such as stocks and government bonds, leads to prices that, on average, are closer to their fundamental values.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
8
Question B: When short sellers start to establish substantial short positions in a stock, the stock is likely to have been overvalued.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
7
Question C: Requiring investors to disclose short positions in a stock at the equivalent threshold as they are required to do for long positions would improve the informativeness of stock prices.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
6
With some measures of concentration by market capitalization within broad US stock market indices at an all-time high, investors seeking a well-diversified passive equity portfolio should consider alternatives to market-cap-weighted indices.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Disagree
7
Comment: For diversification, value weights capture the whole market, at least among market-traded assets.
Finance

Tesla

Tesla shareholders are likely to benefit substantially from the decision by the Delaware Court of Chancery to void Elon Musk's $56 billion remuneration package.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Disagree
6
On 10 January 2024, the SEC approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products:
https://www.sec.gov/news/statement/gensler-statement-spot-bitcoin-011023\

The SEC's approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products makes investors overall measurably better off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
7
The Biden Administration's recommendation to lower the real discount rate used in the cost and benefit analysis of federal regulations to 2 percent (from the current levels of 3 or 7 percent) will substantially improve regulatory analysis.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
6
Uncertain
6
Comment: A lower discount rate supports proposals with longer run benefits, but no risk adjustment lowers costs of riskier proposals. The full doc discusses many issues, eg simplicity, cash flows. Discount rate has a big impact on PV, but “Substantial” is a high bar.
-see background information here
Finance

Modern Portfolio Theory

Question A: Harry Markowitz, the Nobel Prize-winning pioneer of modern portfolio theory, passed away earlier this year:
https://afajof.org/news/in-memoriam-harry-markowitz-past-president-of-the-american-finance-association-1927-2023/

Application of the principles of modern portfolio theory allows investors in practice to achieve substantial improvements in the risk-expected return trade-off relative to naive strategies such as equal-weighting that do not take account of return covariances.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Agree
8
Question B: Widespread adoption of modern portfolio theory by investors has substantially improved the efficiency of capital allocation in financial markets.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Agree
7
Question A: The Federal Reserve has begun quantitative tightening (QT) to reduce the size of its balance sheet. Fed holdings of Treasury securities have declined by $800 billion relative to the March 2020 peak. The Fed currently holds $4.9 trillion of Treasury securities, significantly larger than the $2.5 trillion holdings prior to the Covid pandemic.

A reduction in Fed holdings of Treasury securities measurably increases the interest rate on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
6
Agree
6
Comment: Evidence from QE suggests large asset purchases had the most impact when markets were disrupted (mortgages; QE1 compared to later). There is less evidence on QT, so this may be directionally correct, but causation/significance is not clear.
Question B: A reduction in Fed holdings of Treasury securities measurably increases volatility in the Treasury market.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
6
Uncertain
6
Comment: Fed asset purchases reduced volatility during disruptions, such as March 2020, but there is less evidence on QT, or that it increased volatility. QT has been largely predictable, and other market dynamics (increased Treasury supply, rate policy) confound identifying QT effects.
Question A: September 2023 was the 25th anniversary of the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM). In response to LTCM's troubles, the Federal Reserve orchestrated a multi-billion dollar rescue package by a consortium of banks and it cut the Federal funds rate target by 75 basis points within six weeks.

The hedge fund sector's contribution to systemic risk is substantially lower today than at the time of LTCM.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Question B: Financial market participants' expectation that the Fed will aggressively ease monetary policy in response to financial market dislocations is a substantial source of financial instability.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Question A: SEC Announcement: https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-155

The benefits of the new SEC rules on private funds - which require private funds to provide transparency to their investors regarding the fees and expenses and other terms of their relationship with private fund advisers and the performance of such private funds - substantially exceed their costs.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
6
Question B: The new SEC rules will have a substantially negative impact on the industry by stifling capital formation and reducing competition.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
6
Question C: It is appropriate policy for the SEC to impose such rules on private funds even though the investors (limited partners) are sophisticated entities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
7
Question A: New Money Market Fund (MMF) Rules: The SEC adopted amendments to the MMF rules, including a new mandatory liquidity fee for institutional prime and tax-exempt funds. The liquidity fee would trigger when daily net redemptions exceed five percent and when the costs associated with such redemptions are more than de minimus. https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-129

The new liquidity fee will substantially reduce the likelihood of runs on MMFs.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
6
Question B: The new liquidity fee will cause a substantial shift of assets under management from institutional prime and tax-exempt funds to government MMFs (which are exempt from the fees).
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
7
Question A: The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on working and shopping habits has not been fully priced into current private valuations of downtown commercial properties in major cities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Uncertain
6
Comment: Available private valuations show a markdown of CRE assets, especially among the worst performing in office and retail. Some assets still have stale prices or are held in opaque ways, so the repricing is not always available or visible.
Question B: A continued fall in commercial real estate valuations would trigger another round of banking panic.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Uncertain
6
Comment: Commercial real estate is a broad class. The concentration and pricing of the worst CRE assets across banks is opaque. There could be distress if the sector (and the economy) worsen, especially as margins tighten with higher funding costs and legacy low rate assets.
Finance

ESG Factors

Question A: Regulation that allows state pension funds to consider environmental, social, and governance factors in investment decisions only if these factors are material for risk and expected return would make retirees measurably worse off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Disagree
5
Comment: For defined contribution plans, retirees make their own investment allocations and could be worse off by limiting their choice, unless other investments span these choices. If defined benefit, retirees are promised a payout, so the question applies to the payer choice instead.
Question B: Regulation that prevents state pension funds from considering environmental, social, and governance factors in investment decisions even if these factors are material for risk and expected return would make retirees measurably worse off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
7
Comment: Limiting access to assets relevant for risk and return, in addition to personal preference, constrains both utility and expected risk-adjusted payouts. A caveat is that realized returns do not equal expected returns, so whether retirees are actually worse off is still uncertain.
Question A: Since maturity transformation is an inherent feature of commercial banks' business model, some duration mismatch between assets and liabilities is unavoidable.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
8
Question B: For the purposes of capital regulation, banks should be required to mark their holdings of Treasury and Agency securities to market at all times (even though their loans are not marked to market).
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
7
Finance

Discount Rates

Question A: Despite the empirical failures of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) in explaining expected stock returns, a shareholder-value maximizing publicly-traded firm should still use the CAPM to calculate the cost of equity in capital budgeting.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
7
Question B: The equity risk premium that U.S. publicly traded firms should use in cost of equity calculations in April 2023 is above 6%.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
7
Finance

Banking Crisis

Question A: Financial regulators in the US and Europe lack the tools and authority to deter runs on banks by uninsured depositors.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
7
Question B: Not guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank in full would have created substantial damage to the US economy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
7
Question C: Fully guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank substantially increases banks’ incentives to engage in excessive risk-taking.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
7
Question A: By issuing inflation-indexed bonds, and thereby providing a long-term real safe asset for pension funds and retirement savers, governments can make a substantial contribution to social welfare.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
7
Question B: Issuance of inflation-indexed bonds substantially helps government commit to a responsible fiscal and monetary policy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Finance

Taxing Stock Buybacks

Question A: Large-scale stock buybacks by public corporations provide short-term rewards for shareholders and senior executives at the expense of potentially higher-return corporate investments.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
8
Question B: The proposed higher tax on corporate stock buybacks (an increase from 1% to 4%) would generate substantial public revenues.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
7
Question C: The proposed higher tax on corporate stock buybacks would generate a substantial increase in corporate investment.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
8
Finance

Debt Ceiling

Question A: Missing payments on the US Treasury security obligations for several weeks would pose a substantial risk of a global financial crisis.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Agree
6
Comment: A default on US government debt would disrupt the Treasury market, which underpins global markets with expected safety and liquidity. Costly recent disruptions were not as fundamental as this scenario. There is also potential longer run impact on US cost of funds and leadership.
Question B: The requirement to periodically increase the debt ceiling measurably reduces the long-run size of the debt.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
8
Disagree
6
Comment: Focus on fiscal issues is needed, but the debt ceiling is usually routinely raised and has not led to focused and lasting reductions in fiscal deficits. Moreover, concerns over political stalemate have the opposite effect, as with the volatility and downgrade in 2011.
Question A: The SEC’s proposed new rule for stock orders from individual investors is likely to be effective in giving those investors better prices on their trades on average.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
5
Question B: The new rule would improve the overall operation of the stock market.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
5
Question A: Although the reported volatility of asset values in private markets (private equity, buyouts, and venture capital) is lower than that of comparable assets in public markets, their true volatility is broadly similar or greater.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
8
Comment: Private asset values are opaque and vary in leverage, liquidity, and risk to public markets, so the reported data are not comparable. Adjustments for these factors raise the estimated risk of private assets.
Question B: Since the global financial crisis, the realized returns on private equities have measurably exceeded the returns on public equities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Disagree
5
Comment: Reported returns to PE have been higher than public equity, though the gap has declined and the benchmark for comparable public equity is the subject of debate.
Finance

Cryptocurrency Exchanges

Question A: The collapse of a major crypto intermediary will have little impact on the wider economy and the stability of the traditional financial system.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Agree
7
Comment: There is little visibility into the activities and interconnectedness of crypto exchanges at this point. Traditional financial institutions with central positions can have a large impact relative to their size, and even there it can be difficult to see their risks.
Question B: The collapse of a major crypto intermediary suggests the need for the crypto asset class to be more tightly regulated.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
8
Comment: I would say transparency rather than a specific form of regulation, at the start. Informed decisions require visibility into the firm, and additional information to support consumer protection and governance.
Finance

Passive Investing

The amount of passively invested funds has reached levels at which it has a measurable detrimental effect on market efficiency.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Disagree
7
Question A: Research on the nature and impact of bank runs has made it possible to limit substantially the wider economic damage from financial crises.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
7
Comment: Better understanding run dynamics helps to identify and implement better policies. But financial crises are broader than banks and bank runs, and regulatory arbitrage (among other limitations) limits their effectiveness in practice.
Question B: Reforms of financial regulation since 2008 (and macroprudential policies in some countries) will not substantially reduce the probability of financial crises.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
7
Uncertain
7
Comment: There is large variation across countries in regulation and enforcement, plus dissimilar changes post-2008, so better to learn from heterogeneity than to draw broad conclusions. Moreover, the shocks going forward are not necessarily those that drove recent regulatory changes.
Finance

Currency Depreciation

Question A: The costs and risks associated with a sharp fall in the value of sterling outweigh any macroeconomic benefits for the UK of export stimulus due to a weaker currency.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Uncertain
6
Comment: Two issues: i) the pound fell endogenously in response to announced fiscal changes, which also have an effect on markets; and ii) any export benefits occur on a longer time scale than the market reaction to fiscal and exchange rate effects.
Question B: Concerns about government finances and debt sustainability can undermine the reserve currency status of a major currency.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
7
Comment: The stability and liquidity of a reserve currency rely on relative fiscal and monetary stability, as well as scale, for a global reserve currency.
Finance

Executive Pay

Question A: The typical chief executive officer of a publicly traded corporation in the U.S. is paid more than his or her marginal contribution to the firm's value.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
7
Question B: Mandating that U.S. publicly listed corporations must allow shareholders to cast a non-binding vote on executive compensation was a good idea.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
7
Finance

Stakeholder Capitalism

Question A: Having companies run to maximize shareholder value creates significant negative externalities for workers and communities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Disagree
8
Comment: Could have more confidence if comparing to a real alternative or counterfactual.
Question B: Appropriately managed corporations could create significantly greater value than they currently do for a range of stakeholders – including workers, suppliers, customers and community members – with negligible impacts on shareholder value.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Disagree
8
Comment: Appropriately managed seems unclear/aspirational if the goal is the create additional value. It would be interesting to know what changes.
Question C: Effective mechanisms for boards of directors to ensure that CEOs act in ways that balance the interests of all stakeholders would be straightforward to introduce.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
8
Disagree
8
Comment: Related to the previous question - how would board effectiveness change in practice?
Finance

Climate Reporting Mandate

Question A: A mandate for public companies to provide climate-related disclosures (such as their greenhouse gas emissions and carbon footprint) would provide financially material information that enables investors to make better decisions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
7
Comment: Firms have made climate-related statements and goals, a well-designed and consistent disclosure could be financially material to investors and performance evaluation.
Question B: A mandate for public companies to provide climate-related disclosures would provide material information that enables investors to make better decisions with regards to non-financial objectives (such as aiding portfolio choice based on ESG principles).
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
7
Comment: The relevance and consistency of the disclosure is important, and there is heterogeneity across industries and firms as to importance.
Question C: A mandate for public companies to provide climate-related disclosures would induce them to reduce their climate impact substantially.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
6
Uncertain
6
Comment: A disclosure needs to be consistent and relevant to be meaningful. This also does not guarantee that a disclosure alone will induce a meaningful response from all firms. The investor and broader response is an added factor, also heterogeneous across industries and firms.