Paola Sapienza image

Paola Sapienza

21 Votes

Northwestern Kellogg

  • Evanston, IL

About

  • Donald C. Clark/HSBC Chair in Consumer Finance Professor
  • Fellow of the European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)
  • 2018 Hicks Tinbergen Award of the European Economic Association

Voting History

Question A: Allowing short selling of financial securities, such as stocks and government bonds, leads to prices that, on average, are closer to their fundamental values.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
8
Comment: Short sellers add liquidity and help bring their prices closer to their true value.
Question B: When short sellers start to establish substantial short positions in a stock, the stock is likely to have been overvalued.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
7
Question C: Requiring investors to disclose short positions in a stock at the equivalent threshold as they are required to do for long positions would improve the informativeness of stock prices.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
6
Comment: I do not see a strong argument why short positions should be treated differently from a disclosure point of view.
With some measures of concentration by market capitalization within broad US stock market indices at an all-time high, investors seeking a well-diversified passive equity portfolio should consider alternatives to market-cap-weighted indices.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
3
Disagree
7
Comment: Top 7 stocks account for the majority of returns + represent over 30% of the index. Unlike previous episodes (tech bubble)these firms are highly profitable, have lots of cash and high expected growth. Reweigh tilts toward smaller stocks (weaker growth). Not for passive investors.
Finance

Tesla

Tesla shareholders are likely to benefit substantially from the decision by the Delaware Court of Chancery to void Elon Musk's $56 billion remuneration package.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Disagree
6
Comment: This corresponds to 9.5% of stock market capitalization, but more importantly, the court has pointed the finger to board members who are too close to management, highlighting conflict of interest. I think this is a useful warning
On 10 January 2024, the SEC approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products:
https://www.sec.gov/news/statement/gensler-statement-spot-bitcoin-011023\

The SEC's approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products makes investors overall measurably better off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
7
The Biden Administration's recommendation to lower the real discount rate used in the cost and benefit analysis of federal regulations to 2 percent (from the current levels of 3 or 7 percent) will substantially improve regulatory analysis.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Finance

Modern Portfolio Theory

Question A: Harry Markowitz, the Nobel Prize-winning pioneer of modern portfolio theory, passed away earlier this year:
https://afajof.org/news/in-memoriam-harry-markowitz-past-president-of-the-american-finance-association-1927-2023/

Application of the principles of modern portfolio theory allows investors in practice to achieve substantial improvements in the risk-expected return trade-off relative to naive strategies such as equal-weighting that do not take account of return covariances.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
8
Comment: It is an important framework but there are many limitations based on the assumptions (returns have to be normally distributed, investors allocate all portfolio assets to a single timeframe, past data predict future data). These assumptions are often not verified in practice
Question B: Widespread adoption of modern portfolio theory by investors has substantially improved the efficiency of capital allocation in financial markets.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
2
Agree
7
Comment: For the reasons, that I exposed in the previous answer, in practice the assumptions are not satisfied, so empirically the results of the model depend on those assumptions being met or violated.
Question A: The Federal Reserve has begun quantitative tightening (QT) to reduce the size of its balance sheet. Fed holdings of Treasury securities have declined by $800 billion relative to the March 2020 peak. The Fed currently holds $4.9 trillion of Treasury securities, significantly larger than the $2.5 trillion holdings prior to the Covid pandemic.

A reduction in Fed holdings of Treasury securities measurably increases the interest rate on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
6
Comment: long-term interest rates should increase as compensation to investors to lend for longer maturities
Question B: A reduction in Fed holdings of Treasury securities measurably increases volatility in the Treasury market.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
6
Question A: September 2023 was the 25th anniversary of the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM). In response to LTCM's troubles, the Federal Reserve orchestrated a multi-billion dollar rescue package by a consortium of banks and it cut the Federal funds rate target by 75 basis points within six weeks.

The hedge fund sector's contribution to systemic risk is substantially lower today than at the time of LTCM.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Question B: Financial market participants' expectation that the Fed will aggressively ease monetary policy in response to financial market dislocations is a substantial source of financial instability.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Question A: SEC Announcement: https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-155

The benefits of the new SEC rules on private funds - which require private funds to provide transparency to their investors regarding the fees and expenses and other terms of their relationship with private fund advisers and the performance of such private funds - substantially exceed their costs.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
6
Question B: The new SEC rules will have a substantially negative impact on the industry by stifling capital formation and reducing competition.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
6
Question C: It is appropriate policy for the SEC to impose such rules on private funds even though the investors (limited partners) are sophisticated entities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
7
Question A: New Money Market Fund (MMF) Rules: The SEC adopted amendments to the MMF rules, including a new mandatory liquidity fee for institutional prime and tax-exempt funds. The liquidity fee would trigger when daily net redemptions exceed five percent and when the costs associated with such redemptions are more than de minimus. https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-129

The new liquidity fee will substantially reduce the likelihood of runs on MMFs.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
6
Question B: The new liquidity fee will cause a substantial shift of assets under management from institutional prime and tax-exempt funds to government MMFs (which are exempt from the fees).
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
7
Question A: The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on working and shopping habits has not been fully priced into current private valuations of downtown commercial properties in major cities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
6
Comment: My answer is based on the following research
-see background information here

-see background information here

Question B: A continued fall in commercial real estate valuations would trigger another round of banking panic.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
6
Finance

ESG Factors

Question A: Regulation that allows state pension funds to consider environmental, social, and governance factors in investment decisions only if these factors are material for risk and expected return would make retirees measurably worse off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Disagree
5
Comment: Unclear whether "being better off" is meant here as objective monetary calculations (returns) or individual preferences. If individual preferences are to be taken into account, any restriction could potentially reduce the welfare of individual investors with green preferences.
Question B: Regulation that prevents state pension funds from considering environmental, social, and governance factors in investment decisions even if these factors are material for risk and expected return would make retirees measurably worse off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
7
Comment: In principle, yes. However, it is difficult to write such regulation and avoid abuse in the name of avoiding risk. I am afraid it is hard to figure out the net effect of this regulation
Question A: Since maturity transformation is an inherent feature of commercial banks' business model, some duration mismatch between assets and liabilities is unavoidable.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
8
Question B: For the purposes of capital regulation, banks should be required to mark their holdings of Treasury and Agency securities to market at all times (even though their loans are not marked to market).
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
7
Finance

Discount Rates

Question A: Despite the empirical failures of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) in explaining expected stock returns, a shareholder-value maximizing publicly-traded firm should still use the CAPM to calculate the cost of equity in capital budgeting.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Uncertain
7
Comment: assuming dispersion and typical shareholder structure of the public corp. then I tend to agree in lack of better alternatives
Question B: The equity risk premium that U.S. publicly traded firms should use in cost of equity calculations in April 2023 is above 6%.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Disagree
7
Comment: We should still use an average historical difference, which is still probably between 5 and 7 percent for US
Finance

Banking Crisis

Question A: Financial regulators in the US and Europe lack the tools and authority to deter runs on banks by uninsured depositors.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Disagree
7
Comment: The US regulator has the authority to approve or disapprove the appointment of directors of national banks and state-chartered banks. This includes an evaluation of the fitness of the directors. At SVB, only 1 out of 12 had any financial experience. Where was the regulator?
Question B: Not guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank in full would have created substantial damage to the US economy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
7
Comment: Probably true, but we do not have the counterfactual to be sure
Question C: Fully guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank substantially increases banks’ incentives to engage in excessive risk-taking.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
7
Comment: Especially if combined with no punishments for management boards and regulators who failed. With punishment, maybe next time politicians and winemakers would refrain from serving in banks boards and directors with risk mgt and bank expertise hire a CRO. Waiting to see who pays
Question A: By issuing inflation-indexed bonds, and thereby providing a long-term real safe asset for pension funds and retirement savers, governments can make a substantial contribution to social welfare.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
7
Comment: Research has shown that the issuance of inflation-indexed bonds has a significant impact on welfare, as it provides long-term investors with a riskless long-term investment vehicle.
-see background information here
Question B: Issuance of inflation-indexed bonds substantially helps government commit to a responsible fiscal and monetary policy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
6
Finance

Taxing Stock Buybacks

Question A: Large-scale stock buybacks by public corporations provide short-term rewards for shareholders and senior executives at the expense of potentially higher-return corporate investments.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
7
Disagree
8
Comment: Buyback are alternatives to dividend payouts. The buyback tax reduces the tax advantage of stock repurchase. If corporations have extra cash, they will distribute it. The policy should be evaluated as a tax policy, not in relation to the impact on investments.
Question B: The proposed higher tax on corporate stock buybacks (an increase from 1% to 4%) would generate substantial public revenues.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Disagree
7
Comment: Corporations will begin to favor cash dividends and reduce buybacks, thus, it will be difficult to estimate the public revenues from the policy. There are probably multiple market considerations that drive the decision, but taxes must be one of them (hard to know how much)
Question C: The proposed higher tax on corporate stock buybacks would generate a substantial increase in corporate investment.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Disagree
8
Comment: I believe that if companies have extra cash, there will distribute it, either through dividends or buyback.
Finance

Debt Ceiling

Question A: Missing payments on the US Treasury security obligations for several weeks would pose a substantial risk of a global financial crisis.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Agree
6
Comment: There will be major consequences but not sure a full blown financial crisis
Question B: The requirement to periodically increase the debt ceiling measurably reduces the long-run size of the debt.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
4
Disagree
6
Comment: Hard to test it empirically but it does not look like
Question A: The SEC’s proposed new rule for stock orders from individual investors is likely to be effective in giving those investors better prices on their trades on average.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
5
Question B: The new rule would improve the overall operation of the stock market.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Disagree
5
Comment: I do not think the rule will affect the overall stock market as much to create tangible more efficiency.
Question A: Although the reported volatility of asset values in private markets (private equity, buyouts, and venture capital) is lower than that of comparable assets in public markets, their true volatility is broadly similar or greater.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Agree
8
Comment: Hotly debated topic, mostly due to the opacity of data (and who provides them). Both results are found in the literature; even KKR in a recent paper has argued that volatility is underestimated in PE. The question is by how much?
Question B: Since the global financial crisis, the realized returns on private equities have measurably exceeded the returns on public equities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Disagree
5
Comment: Weakly agree, the answer depends on which data are used, what vintage and it is certainly too early to determine the past two years PME for PE, given that many recent vintages will not come to fruition for a while. The academic literature has serious data issues to nail this
Finance

Cryptocurrency Exchanges

Question A: The collapse of a major crypto intermediary will have little impact on the wider economy and the stability of the traditional financial system.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
7
Comment: So far so good, as long as the breach of trust does not extend to more exchanges/products affecting much larger base of investors.
Question B: The collapse of a major crypto intermediary suggests the need for the crypto asset class to be more tightly regulated.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
8
Comment: FTX offered deposits. It seems that FTX was transferring to Alameda some deposits with no knowledge of the clients. The product was accessible widely. Of course, this should be a regulated product. Unclear yet how much they circumvented regulation (fraud) or it was permissible.
Finance

Passive Investing

The amount of passively invested funds has reached levels at which it has a measurable detrimental effect on market efficiency.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Disagree
7
Comment: There is some theoretical literature arguing both in favor and against the hypothesis that a change in index investing reduces price efficiency. A recent paper claims an heterogenous effects. Some earlier paper provided evidence for null effects. links provide references
-see background information here
Question A: Research on the nature and impact of bank runs has made it possible to limit substantially the wider economic damage from financial crises.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
7
Comment: In ST, yes. In LT, unclear. Research does not help distinguishing between crisis caused by panic or insolvency. Research showing crisis maybe generated by liquidity crisis -> governments intervened too often even when banks insolvent (Ireland 2008). Increase moral hazard in LT.
Question B: Reforms of financial regulation since 2008 (and macroprudential policies in some countries) will not substantially reduce the probability of financial crises.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
7
Comment: Probably not, for several reasons. Regulation alone is not sufficient to create financial stability. This regulation was heavily lobbied. There are many possible arbitrage strategies (e.g. shadow banks). The next crisis will not be identical to the previous one.
Finance

Currency Depreciation

Question A: The costs and risks associated with a sharp fall in the value of sterling outweigh any macroeconomic benefits for the UK of export stimulus due to a weaker currency.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Question B: Concerns about government finances and debt sustainability can undermine the reserve currency status of a major currency.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
7
Finance

Executive Pay

Question A: The typical chief executive officer of a publicly traded corporation in the U.S. is paid more than his or her marginal contribution to the firm's value.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
9
Uncertain
7
Comment: First, on the generic question, I am fairly confident that the literature is not conclusive on excessive pay for the "typical" CEO. Second, on the specific question, it is really hard to measure CEO's marginal contribution to the firm's value.
Question B: Mandating that U.S. publicly listed corporations must allow shareholders to cast a non-binding vote on executive compensation was a good idea.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Uncertain
7
Comment: Shareholders vote would lead to greater transparency with very low cost. The rule led to greater disclosure of pay structure and disclosure is good. It is unlikely to have a strong impact. Thus, if one believes we have a big problem, it is a fig leaf without much effects.
Finance

Stakeholder Capitalism

Question A: Having companies run to maximize shareholder value creates significant negative externalities for workers and communities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Disagree
8
Comment: Certain companies generate very negative externalities, but the statement is not valid in general
Question B: Appropriately managed corporations could create significantly greater value than they currently do for a range of stakeholders – including workers, suppliers, customers and community members – with negligible impacts on shareholder value.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Disagree
8
Comment: general statement, it does not apply to firms creating large externalities (e.g polluters), which are not the majority of firms
Question C: Effective mechanisms for boards of directors to ensure that CEOs act in ways that balance the interests of all stakeholders would be straightforward to introduce.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Disagree
8
Comment: When the conflict between shareholder maximization and societal goals emerge, the board should not choose, better to let society regulate
Finance

Climate Reporting Mandate

Question A: A mandate for public companies to provide climate-related disclosures (such as their greenhouse gas emissions and carbon footprint) would provide financially material information that enables investors to make better decisions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
7
Comment: Mandatory disclosure "standardizes" market communication. Compared to the current voluntary disclosure, information will be comparable across firms. The object of the disclosure is crucially important and my answer flips if mandatory disclosure is on irrelevant information.
Question B: A mandate for public companies to provide climate-related disclosures would provide material information that enables investors to make better decisions with regards to non-financial objectives (such as aiding portfolio choice based on ESG principles).
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Agree
7
Comment: It really depends on the disclosure mandate. First, lobbying for making mandatory disclosure less effective may undermine it. Second, disclosure of certain emissions can lead to shifts where firms create externalities on non-disclosed aspects. Scope for gaming the system is ample
Question C: A mandate for public companies to provide climate-related disclosures would induce them to reduce their climate impact substantially.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Uncertain
6
Comment: It depends on the mandate. Lobbying and gaming of the system make a generic answer impossible. In principle, yes. In practice, difficult to achieve.