Question A:
Holding other policies fixed, the average European would be better off if every European country taxed corporate profits at a rate of 20% (based as closely as possible on a common definition of profits).
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
If other policies were held fixed and every European country taxed corporate profits at a common rate of 20%, then reducing that common rate substantially below 20% would make the average European better off.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Philippe Aghion |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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sure of the answer if ``at a common rate''. Not sure about the 20%, if different from current mean
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 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Economic geography would argue for some rate diversity, possibly with a floor.
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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My uncertainty stems from the fact that the question does not make clear how the tax cut will be financed (higher deficit, less spending)?
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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What is important is the common rate across countries. It is not clear to me that 20% is the correct level.
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 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Luis Garicano |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Base harmonization is key. Current chaos is inefficient (encourages tax arbitrage) and unfair (profit shifting leads to absurdly low rates)
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 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lack of coordination of corporate taxes leads to inefficient distortion of corporate real and financial activities.
-see background information here |
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Martin Hellwig |
Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The "average European" does not exist. The counterpart of the tax cut in the budget is undefined. Any affirmative statement is unfounded.
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Probably needs to be accompanied by coordinated anti-avoidance work to limit tax avoidance practices of MNCs simply shifting to non-EU.
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 Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The effect of lower tax rate on average income is probably stronger than that of lower taxable income (given concurrent US-tax reduction).
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 Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Harmonization eliminates unnecessary wedges.
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Weakly agree but case in EU not clear cut (see link). Only effective if base harmonized too. Tricky Q as ctries like IRE need big adjustment
-see background information here |
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Peter Neary |
Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not until Europe adopts common fiscal policy. Corporate tax is more harmful to growth than other taxes. Tax competition helps keep it low.
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 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Effective rates already in range 20-30 (Ireland lower). Good to minimize incentives for tax avoidance.
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Tax harmonization across countries would be beneficial to reduce regulatory arbitrage. I am less sure that 20% is indeed the right number.
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Reduce harmful tax competition
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yes but the implied loss of tax revenue should be compensated by either less distortionary taxes or by inefficient spending cuts.
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 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Philippe Aghion |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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if by average, we mean ``mean''. Distribution effects between capital and labor income might have adverse implications.
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Luis Garicano |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It depends crucially on factors we do not measure well, e.g. is incidence of corporate tax, and income shifting from labour income
-see background information here -see background information here |
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Martin Hellwig |
Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The "average European" does not exist. The counterpart of the tax cut in the budget is undefined. Any affirmative statement is unfounded.
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Despite theoretical propositions arguing strongly against corporation tax, a nonzero rate is surely needed in a second-best world.
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Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Same as before.
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Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It depends on how the resulting debt will be financed.
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Benefits are uncertain & concerns about effect on inequality, esp if policies are fixed & govnmts cannot compensate for inequality effects
-see background information here -see background information here |
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Corporate tax should be low as it is harmful to growth. Rules must prevent personal income from avoiding tax by becoming corporate income.
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Answer might be different if other policies not held fixed
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It may be difficult to make up for too large revenue losses.
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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