Question A:
Following the UK election result, the certainty that the country is going to leave the European Union will provide a substantial short-term boost to the UK economy.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Given that the transition period currently expires at the end of 2020, there is still a considerable risk that the UK will leave the European Union without a trade agreement.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question C:
Leaving the European Union without a trade agreement would have a large negative impact on the UK economy.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Investment has been low since the Brexit vote. Now there is more clarity after the election it should increase.
|
||||
 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Decline in uncertainty will be good for the economy, but there may be other transitional costs
|
||||
 Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Two effects. The certainty of Brexit: bad. The removal of the uncertainty and option value: good. (+ election of a tory: good for business)
|
||||
 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
More certainty on higher transaction costs: net effect is unclear.
|
||||
 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The uncertainty about the trade deal will remain dampening optimism
|
||||
 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Reduction in risk of no-deal exit helps, but reduced chance of remain does not.
|
||||
 Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The demise of the "fork" (in versus out) reduces ambiguity greatly, allowing longer term planning once again.
|
||||
 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Uncertainty resolution is positive, but it made Brexit near certainty. So bump might not be large. Still huge uncertainty about trade deal.
|
||||
 Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
This could happen if confidence improves, but exchange rate fluctuations in the first post-election week suggest markets are unconvinced
-see background information here |
||||
 Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
There is still going to be uncertainty about whether or not there will be a trade deal. So any effect would be small.
|
||||
 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Brexit uncertainty has been a dampener on investment. There will be a boost, although maybe not substantial until we know the deal
|
||||
 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Economy stagnating recently. Some uncertainty now resolved, so psychological effects on consumers, maybe starts on some delayed investments
|
||||
 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
There is great uncertainty about the path that will be chosen, from no deal to soft Brexit.
|
||||
 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Brexit is a certain economic bad, so the fact this will happen outweighs any benefits from the reduction in uncertainty
-see background information here -see background information here |
||||
 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Net effect of withdrawal certainty and heightened trade agreement uncertainty, given PM's commitment not to extend transition, is unclear
|
||||
 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
There is still considerable uncertainty for firms (particularly in services) about the nature of the UK's future trading relationship.
|
||||
 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Some uncertainty is removed but the trade agreement remains to be negociated
|
||||
 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The law outlawing extension appears to be a negotiating strategy. There is a risk that they don't the deal.
|
||||
|
Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
This question is about politics, not economics. Judging from what Johnson said today (12/17), there will be a deal. But what do I know?!
|
||||
|
Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
There will likely be an agreement; the problem is its content.
|
||||
|
Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
the difficulty will arise from the incompatibility between free trade US-UK, barriers US-EU and relatively open borders UK-EU.
|
||||
|
Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Probability of no deal is still not zero, but is greatly reduced.
|
||||
|
Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I don't thing that the EU on the other side of the table will play hard ball - they will rather give in, allowing for a trade arrangement.
|
||||
|
Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Especially if BJ introduces bill that prevents extension beyond 2020.
|
||||
|
Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
UK policy seems focused on committing to leave hoping to get a better deal as a result. Unlikely to happen; EU has stronger bargaining power
|
||||
|
Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I expect some kind of incomplete trade deal, especially on goods, because of the opposition of supporters of the government to no deal
|
||||
|
Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Expectations and demands of UK and EU 27 are strongly incompatible. But Johnson is totally unpredictable.
|
||||
|
Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Short time to negotiate increases chances of no deal and of soft Brexit. Everything in between takes time to negotiate.
|
||||
|
Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Government announced it will legislate against extension. Although it could change this, it makes no-deal more likely
-see background information here |
||||
|
John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Clear risk of UK/EU not concluding trade agreement in 2020, even for goods only. Irony that risk reduces the more UK aligns with EU rules.
|
||||
|
Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Expect to hear "no deal is better than a bad deal" again. I suspect a bare-bones trade deal (zero tarrifs & quotas, no services) can be done
|
||||
|
Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Wishful silver lining? It could lead to Britain remaining de facto in the EU.
|
||||
|
Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
Question C Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I think there is likely to be a negative short term effect but in the medium and long term it is not clear what will happen.
|
||||
|
Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Almost certainly would generate uncertainty and increase other transitional costs
|
||||
|
Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
likely adverse, size uncertain, and showing up slowly over time
|
||||
|
Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
This is why no deal is now unlikely
|
||||
|
Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
This is too complicated a case to think it through properly now.
|
||||
|
Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
BoJo aims for Canada-style FTA w/o alignment, so services not covered. Thus, even w/ such trade agreement likely negative impact from Brexit
|
||||
|
Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
All professionally-respected studies show that barriers with EU will impose economic costs for which no other trade agreement can compensate
-see background information here -see background information here |
||||
|
Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
UK depends on trade with the EU. No trade deal brings a big barrier to such trade
|
||||
|
Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
There will be a large negative effect even with a trade agreement if it doesn't cover services and the UK leaves the Single Market
-see background information here |
||||
|
Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Most independent studies have shown large effects of no deal.
|
||||
|
Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
It's obvious that driving up trade costs with UK's neighbours will mean lower incomes, and the bigger the trade cost the more the damage
-see background information here |
||||
|
John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Absence of trade agreement with UK's main trading partner would be a large negative supply shock at least in the short term
|
||||
|
Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
This (rather than failure to sort out the other issues in the WA) is the biggest chance that Brexit has a large sudden negative shock.
|
||||
|
Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
WTO rules would cripple significant segments of the British economy.
|
||||
|
Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
