Question A:
To the extent that public corporations pursue social and environmental initiatives, they tend to achieve higher risk-adjusted (private) returns than otherwise similar corporations that pursue such initiatives less.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
To the extent that Norway’s global government pension fund makes investments for social and environmental objectives — apart from investments that would bring the highest expected risk-adjusted returns — it improves the welfare of Norwegians.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not sure of the entire literature in this field. Would guess there are a range of results here.
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not my field, but it's not clear to me how these factors would affect the stochastic discount factor. It seems it's mostly a level effect.
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 Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hard to believe that adding constraints on portfolio choice leads to higher returns
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 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It probably depends on the investment horizon.
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is a a question about facts, not about opinion. I do not know the facts
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A firm with sufficient monopoly rents can engage in social responsible activities and attract more talent. Still in a competitive market no.
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Firms taking constrained choices will earn lower financial returns, there might be other benefits to pursuing social or environmental goals.
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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For what I know there is no convincing evidence on the effect of CSR on profitability.
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Intuitively makes sense as a long-term proposition. Besides: I don't see not much evidence that "ethical" funds generally underperform.
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 Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is an unlikely combination, doing good and having private benefits too.
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 Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I haven’t seen any evidence to support this claim and tested theory predicts the opposite. But if it’s a fad it can pay off, like any fad.
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Evidence on doing well by doing good mixed. Metastudy finds small pos. association btw corp social & financial performance;tricky estimation
-see background information here -see background information here |
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 Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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An old debate. John Stuart Mill nailed it: private sector to maximize efficiency; public to look after distribution, social goals etc.
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 Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Firm shareholders do not fully internalize the benefits of such initiatives; they effectively subsidize the rest of society.
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 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Without government incentives the statement about private returns is wrong. But there could be tax advantages that make it true
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Current literature finds this.
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Companies most likely see CSP initiatives as part of a broader marketing budget. It may suit some to do more than others.
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This assumes that: 1) They are efficiently run; 2) Their choices do reflect social preferences.
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 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not very knowledgeable about the current ESG policies of Norwegian Global Pension fund.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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But that's under the premise that those investments would not be carried out otherwise. If not, it is less clear.
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Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If my knowledge is correct, the fund invests outside of Norway. So it may make the world a better place, but not necessarily Norway.
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The size of the investment funds allows Norway to steer the world in a more positive direction - offsetting some of Trump's global damage
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The fund has a long horizon.
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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uncertain about Norwegians' material welfare (exclus. foreign investments) but revealed preference implies higher subjective welfare.
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If Norwegians value the non-financial benefits from investments for social/environmental objectives this will enhance their welfare.
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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But this depends on strong governance and freedom from capture by political short-termism.
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is an emotional benefit in pursuing such an investment stratategy that may be relevant here.
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Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I define welfare in traditional ways (goods and services, leisure). If Norwegians attach a moral value to these actions, maybe it is a plus.
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends on non-classical&non-monetary preferences of Norwegians. Possible but hard to know. Note also global fund invests outside of Norway.
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Weakly agree; tho main benefit of the Norwegian fund is as the poster-boy of how to manage windfalls to mitigate the natural resource curse
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Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Norwegian welfare depends not just on financial returns but on the feeling that society is behaving responsibly.
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Norwegians as a whole do not fully internalize the benefits of such investments; they effectively subsidize the welfare of non-Norwegians.
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Norwegians feel very strongly about environmental issues, so they are happier - broader welfare concept
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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No trade-off if investments well picked. (and a positive externality from which Norwegians also benefit)
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hard to sum this up with such a short question. All countries have an interest in co-operative behavior that reduces risks of climate change
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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With fungible financial resources, does it make a difference behind good conscience? Is good conscience in the welfare function?
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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