Question A:
EU Covid-19 vaccination efforts are significantly behind those of Israel, Serbia, the UK and the US.
Offering substantially higher prices per dose would have resulted in larger capacity investments by vaccine makers and accelerated distribution in Europe significantly.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
In the current situation, paying for more production capacity would be better than offering higher prices for vaccines.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question C:
If the EU started paying prices above 100 euros per dose, it would on net reduce the cost of the pandemic to the EU via more lives saved and shorter lockdowns.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The newspapers carry this information often.
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Oriana Bandiera |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Supply curves slope up... (but it does not necessarily mean that EU chose the wrong price. it may, it may not)
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 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Firms respond to markets - higher prices would increase vaccine supply.
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Offering higher prices would have led to higher profits of pharma companies. Monopolists do not increase supply with higher prices.
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The time required to increase capacity may be too long for the price increase to have a significant impact
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Sergei Guriev |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I suspect that unit price not the only — or even the main — dimension of the contract negotiations resulting now in slow deliveries.
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 Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is as simple as that. Note that equity-like co-investments in such facilities would have been even better, overcoming risk aversion.
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Peter Neary |
Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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All inputs are man-made; offering "zero profit" and high liabilities cannot result in best-of-class investments...
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I don't know enough to answer. I would guess the financial incentives were strong enough even at the prices the EU negotiated.
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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We don't know the prices paid but that seems to have been the successful strategy of Israel.
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 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is a difficult incentive issue. Institutional context differs across countries and is important.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Oriana Bandiera |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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again, holds as a matter of logic... if you want to affect production, subsidize production. Otherwise, money may leak elsewhere.
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Paying more for vaccines is a clear way to boost supply. It also supports R&D for vaccines for future pandemics.
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Sergei Guriev |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The question is not clear. How would "paying for capacity" be structured? Would "higher prices" increase quantity guarantees?
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not clear that price and quantity deal any worse than pay for capacity deal given creditworthiness of EU buyers.
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It may not be possible to expand capacity at a short notice.
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Both should work together. Ultimately, fast inventors have to benefit.
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Answer depends on what the bottle neck is. If it is capacity, then cap. subsidies help. If it is inputs, then higher prices likely better.
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Uncertainty over demand means that pharma companies do not invest early enough in capacity: paying for capacity is one way to address that
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Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Investments in vaccines are sunk cost. Higher prices NOW would only reallocate doses to EU from others. But larger production would help all
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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more unclear; ultimately, what matters is shots in arms; capacity is easier to game
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Seems like a more direct way to deal with the shortage of supply.
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Question C Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There are a number of qualifications, such as it depends on the current price, but in general one important problem is the low prices.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It has clearly been a failure, but I can't claim to know what exactly went wrong.
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Oriana Bandiera |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I do not know what the right price is...
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The benefit of a vaccine far outweighs the costs, so paying more for vaccines makes long-run economic sense.
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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But it would be at the expense of someone else - not sure there would be any gain overall!
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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What the EU and other countries should have done is to revoke patent rights. That would have boosted the supply
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is unclear how much this would help now in speeding up vaccine productions, but it would have helped in the past.
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Sergei Guriev |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Even if lockdowns cost "only" 2% GDP per year, accelerating vaccination by half a year would save EU 300 euros per capita.
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Capacity is the problem now. Vaccine is clearly worth more than €100, but paying this to divert a small amount from ROW seems bad diplomacy.
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The higher price goes into the right direction - ultimately different cost and benefit effects have to be aggregated.
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It's fairly clear that "value"/dose to EU is well above current prices but don't know if raising now would help much. Should've done earlier
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I just don't know the cost (and benefit) figures well enough to answer this one
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Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Paying higher prices might not guarantee substantially more vaccines now.
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I'd agree if there were no diversion from rest of world but that seems a major issue
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If payment at this level could lead to taking many months off lockdown, then it likely pays for itself.
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Cost-benefits calculations are imprecise and pricing human life is dicy. But the costs of lockdowns alone probably easily pass the bar.
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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