Question A:
The US should increase spending now on roads, railways, bridges and airports (including new projects, maintenance or both).
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
The advisability of increasing federal spending on roads, railways, bridges and airports is independent of whether the US also enacts tax cuts that substantially lower revenues.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Long term investments should be timed strategically, when the economy is slowing --not at 4.3% unemployment
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The need to improve infrastructure in the US is independent of Keynesian stimulus reasons.
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Despite recent improvements in the economy that reduce the need for fiscal stimulus, better infrastructure is critical to economic growth.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Let's not forget about governance--how the projects get chosen matters a lot
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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U.S. infrastructure is in bad shape and fixing it can improve lives and provide the foundation for a stronger economy.
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Poor condition + reasonable interest rate = positive NPV
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The need is there, and interest rates are low.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I am sure there are very useful projects. I am not sure those are the ones that would get funded.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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we have to do it and might as well start now. only hesitation is potential horse trades in congress to make it happen.
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I would expand to include other networks as well, not just 19th C.
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some projects, such as railroads, generate enough positive externalities to justify federal govt. subsidies. Not sure we need more roads.
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Our infrastructure is well below world standards.
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is a no brainer. Deferred maintenance always costs you more in the end, not to mention safety issues.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The trick, of course, is to choose high return projects. There is a well-documented set of infrastructure projects that meet this test.
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The total size of the deficit is not irrelevant. For example, critical non-infrastructure spending could be crowded out by politics.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The budget deficit and national debt matter and so I would accompany infrastructure spending with higher taxes, particularly on the rich.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Substantial loss of revenues will require cuts in spending. Where? Defense? Medical research? Infrastructure? All will be at risk.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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big deficit financing means Fed will likely raise rates faster. looser fiscal policy several years ago would have been helpful, less so now
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Even if benefits are high, costs could be high due to marginal deadweight loss of future increases in marginal tax rates.
-see background information here |
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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At near full employment, a big debt increase is not a good idea. But cutting taxes now isn't a good idea either.
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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What happened to budget constraint? US needs public investment, but not irrespective of fiscal conditions.
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It would be a superb investment to finance infrastructure with tax revenue, but the investments are imperative regardless of tax policy.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Increase in real interest rate paid on US debt may cause projects with positive NPV in the current environment to become negative NPV.
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Given that the economy is near capacity, a big tax cut on top of a big increase in spending would be unwise.
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Tax smoothing is desirable. The argument for cutting taxes has to be based on cutting spending as well
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Less certain because a deficit exploding tax cut will cause some problems but still, you gotta do what you gotta do.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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