Refugees in Germany

I'm not aware of any evidence that says that immigration has long-run domestic costs -- though it may impose short-term adjustment costs.

Initially, costs > economic benefits. Employment rate shockingly low. Long-run economic implications are uncertain.

I base my response on the but-for immigration demographics in Germany, but there are many variables.

Maybe by the end of the decade. The more there are, the longer it will take. All conditional on no political catastrophe in the meantime.

In the long run, benefits (larger labor force and more entrepreneurship) will exceed costs. In the next ten years? Assimilation takes time

These decisions involve much more than economics

The proposition is ambiguous whether it refers to the pre-immigration citizens, who may be indifferent, or the immigrants, who gain a lot.

Refugees may provide labor that Germans can benefit from. But welfare transfers from Germans may be required. The net effect is ambiguous.

The generous German welfare state will be burdened by the costs of absorbing these immigrants. E.g., they do not speak German.

low skills and lack of language will make assimilation challenging, but by the end of the decade they will probably be net contributors

-see background information here

Impacts probably small, it sign unclear on pre-arrival residents.

Europe is aging, and so an influx of young people is potentially valuable, but much depends on how effectively they are integrated.

There are good arguments for admitting refugees, but I haven't seen evidence for this one in this case

Seems most likely outcome.