By Topic

This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements: A) Following the UK election result, the certainty that the country is going to leave the European Union will provide a substantial short-term boost to the UK economy. B) Given that the transition period currently expires at the end of 2020, there is still a considerable risk that the UK will leave the European Union without a trade agreement. C) Leaving the European Union without a trade agreement would have a large negative impact on the UK economy. 

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements: A) If all of the “Seven actions to protect American workers” in President-elect Trump’s 100-day plan (see link) are enacted, it will more likely than not improve the economic prospects of middle-class Americans over the next decade. B) If all of the “Seven actions to protect American workers” in President-elect Trump’s 100-day plan are enacted, it will more likely than not improve the economic prospects of low-skilled Americans over the next decade. 

This European survey examines (a) If countries could impose a ban on the use of ChatGPT and similar generative AI chatbot services that is technologically effective, they would experience a measurably negative impact on national innovation; (b) Regardless of whether advances in AI spur productivity growth, they are likely to create deep challenges for society – in areas from labor markets to politics, and including disinformation, privacy, crime, and warfare – that will be difficult to anticipate, plan for, and contain. 

This week's European Economic Experts Panel statement: The practical application of auction theory to the licensing of rights to use public assets like radiospectrum and other natural resources has generated substantially higher government revenues and better allocative efficiency worldwide than would have happened under previous arrangements. 

This week's US Economic Experts Panel statement: The practical application of auction theory to the licensing of rights to use public assets like radiospectrum and other natural resources has generated substantially higher government revenues and better allocative efficiency worldwide than would have happened under previous arrangements. 

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements: A: Taking into account all of the economic consequences — including the incentives of banks to ensure their own liquidity and solvency in the future — the benefits of bailing out U.S. banks in 2008 will end up exceeding the costs. B: Because GM and Chrysler were bailed out in 2008-09, the U.S. unemployment rate was lower at the end of 2010 than it would it have been if Congress and the executive branch had not intervened. C: Taking into account all of the economic consequences — including effects on corporate managers' incentives and on creditors' expectations of how their claims will be treated in future bankruptcies — the benefits of bailing out GM and Chrysler will end up exceeding the costs. 

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel Statements: A) Amending the Constitution to require that the federal government end each fiscal year without a deficit would substantially reduce output variability in the United States. B) Amending the Constitution to require that the federal government end each fiscal year without a deficit would substantially lower the cost of borrowing for the federal government. 

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements: A: The U.S government should make further efforts to shrink the size of the country's largest banks — such as by capping the size of their liabilities or penalizing large banks more heavily through taxes or other means — because the existing regulations do not require the biggest banks to internalize enough of the "too-big-to-fail" risks that they pose. B: The economic benefits to the U.S. of having a handful of banks with balance sheets greater than $1 trillion are small. 

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements: A) If the UK opts to withdraw from the European Union, and assuming Scotland stays in the UK, the level of the UK's real per-capita income a decade later will be lower than if it remains part of the EU. B) If the UK exits the EU, then it substantially increases the chances that some other current region of the EU will also exit within the following decade.