Britain's Labour party recently proposed giving the Bank of England a target of 3% annual labor productivity growth. Consider the following statement:
Central banks cannot significantly increase productivity growth over a ten year horizon, except perhaps by promoting macroeconomic stability.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Overreliance on monetary policy for achieving productivity growth has huge downside.
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Creating a stable environment leads to more R&D investments, which promotes productivity growth.
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Central bankers are not magicians. I would substitute the phrase "except perhaps" with "but can somewhat influence productivity growth".
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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They shouldn't have a target rate of productivity growth, climate change, or Cubs wins. Each one matters. None is under their control.
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It's hard to think of a worse idea for a central bank than asking it to control productivity growth. Promoters have forgotten King Canute.
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Productivity depends on human, physical, and intellectual capital accumulation. Central banks do not have tools to affect such investments.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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no one familiar with the basic evidence believes this is possible. disclosure, i have part-time appt at Bank of England. this is my own view
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I wish they could, but unfortunately no.
-see background information here |
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 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Productivity growth is primarily a technological phenomenon, with monetary policy playing a secondary role.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Agree but would also include “promoting a well functioning financial system.”
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I'd be more confident if "labor productivity" were replaced by "total factor productivity"
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Brilliant idea! Maybe the Fed can increase my productivity too. I'd like to be able to write faster and better. Also hit golf balls farther
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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