Question A:
Efforts to achieve the goal of reaching net-zero emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050 will be a major drag on global economic growth.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Voluntary national targets are unlikely to be an effective mechanism for achieving sharp reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question C:
Agreement on a significant global price floor for all carbon emissions would be an effective step towards achieving sharp reductions in emissions.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Renewables are cost competitive with fossil fuels in most tasks. Plus, investment in new technology and infrastructure can boost growth.
-see background information here |
||||
 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
We underestimate our capacity to innovate, and the growth that ensues from innovation and investment
|
||||
 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Obviously, climate change itself will impact global economies.
|
||||
 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
It entirely depends on policy.
|
||||
 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Assuming the metric is long-run growth, not short run, it's a question of sustainability.
|
||||
 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Efforts involve investment. That need not lower growth. Also people may not put up with too much sacrifice.
|
||||
 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
NOT taking steps to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 will be a major drag on economic growth (climate change adaptation can be expensive).
|
||||
 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Compared to letting it go wild?
|
||||
 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Whether 2050 net zero passes cost-benefit is wrong ?. Correct ? is whether benefits of substantial emissions cuts > costs: YES, they do!
-see background information here |
||||
 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Not if the world adapts intelligently
|
||||
 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Short run, yes. Long run maybe not. Growth measures likely to change, too.
|
||||
 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Even the best policies would restrain growth but any politically feasible mix of policies would likely be very inefficient.
|
||||
 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
It is not clear if there will be efforts and if seriously attempted will likely slow growth but major drag? Too hard to say.
|
||||
 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
It could go either way---development of "clean" energy sources could conceivably give growth a major boost
|
||||
 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Partly costly because of necessary measures, partly because likely to be so inefficiently designed.
|
||||
 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
But the effect of technological advance is hard to predict. However, the climate change induced by doing nothing may be an even worse drag.
|
||||
 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Serious efforts could be a major drag on growth if externalities are ignored and if dumb policies are employed.
|
||||
 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Caveat: climate change may also be a drag, and this will mitigate climate change.
|
||||
 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Efficient measures will, as we have seen, spur innovation with little macro impact. Inefficient measures could be more problematic.
-see background information here |
||||
 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The answer depends a lot on technological change. I am highly confident that I don't know.
|
||||
 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Climate change will hurt a lot; efforts to combat it will be costly but perhaps not growth-reducing in themselves -as we measure growth
|
||||
Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Transition costs will be high for China & some developing nations. Plus big oil & energy are still very powerful. Global coordination is key
|
||||
|
Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
national targets can speed up the development of new green technologies - benefiting the whole world
|
||||
|
Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I see no option, and it has to happen, so . . . .
|
||||
|
Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
This is a classic free rider problem. Every country will want other countries to bear the cost.
|
||||
|
Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Voluntary national commitments/targets are the only game in town. There is a free rider problem to be sure, but one that might be overcome.
|
||||
|
Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
All national targets are voluntary, short of sanctions or war. Border carbon adjustment taxes can help.
|
||||
|
Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
There's a big problem of collective action, but who says the reduction should be sharp? It should be consistent but not irregular.
|
||||
|
Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Talk is cheap. Also, a good global policy would have some countries cut emissions far more than others and require coordination.
|
||||
|
Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The free-rider problem here is too strong to expect voluntary reductions to work very well
|
||||
|
William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Free riding is lethal on global public goods.
|
||||
|
Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
We already see that voluntary targets, essentially a go-fund-me for climate change mitigation, are easily missed.
|
||||
|
José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Might perhaps pave the way for something serious, but that's the best that can be said.
|
||||
|
Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Nuanced: Politicians and voters seem ready to adopt targets, which in turn have linked (limited) action. All political economy.
|
||||
|
Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Depends a lot on international social norms. We have avoided (so far) a nuclear war ending to the world. Might happen again.
|
||||
|
Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
Question C Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Yes. But it is not sufficient. Investment in green technologies plus public campaigns, e.g., to reduce beef consumption, are also needed.
|
||||
|
Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
If we could get there. Of course, there will still be plenty of cheating
|
||||
|
Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
removal of fossil fuel subsidies and investment in green R&D might be equally/more effective.
|
||||
|
Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
It may not be feasible
|
||||
|
Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
An agreed price mechanism can support allocative efficiency (Econ 101) and compliance monitoring.
|
||||
|
Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Of course the price floor needs to be effective and large enough and enforced to work.
|
||||
|
Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
How would cheaters be penalized?
|
||||
|
Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Seems like the assume a can opener joke. Yes a significant price floor would be effective. But how can India/US/EU/China/etc agree on price?
|
||||
|
Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Carbon as CH_4 should have a much higher price than carbon as CO_2
|
||||
|
Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Presumably equilibrium will eventually exceed floor
|
||||
|
Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
If the cost of emitting CO2 goes up, then emissions will go down.
|
||||
|
Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
A carbon tax will not only reduce emissions directly---but also indirectly by stimulating development of clean energy.
|
||||
|
William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Of course, assuming effectively designed and enforced.
|
||||
|
Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
For economists, price floor is great but in reality, it could create a populist backlash and put us further behind.
|
||||
|
Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The most useful measures are those that bring us closer to a carbon tax.
|
||||
|
José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Enforcement?
|
||||
|
James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
But for now leave out developing economies. Also, a carbon price (explicit or implicit) is necessary but not sufficient.
-see background information here |
||||
|
Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Better question: The bipartisan opposition to carbon pricing in the US is the #1 greatest failing of the economics profession. (I agree.)
|
||||
|
Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
