Question A:
Given the centrality of semiconductors to the manufacturing of many products, securing reliable supplies should be a key strategic objective of EU and national policy.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Europe’s small role in global semiconductor production is a direct result of insufficient private investment in high-tech innovation.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question C:
Public support at EU and national level for investment along the value chain for semiconductors, including production, would be the most effective way to ensure security of supply.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Given the current geopolitical situation, having reliable supplies is becoming more and more important.
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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To be clear, "centrality" does NOT necessarily mean that industries should be subsidized, but "upstreamness" typically does.
-see background information here -see background information here |
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 Oriana Bandiera |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is a free market decision - you could say any product from yoghurt to pipes to bricks are central. No Soviet central planning.
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I'm not sure what the market failure is that requires govenment intervention
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Sergei Guriev |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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More a matter for EU policy than for individual member states
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 Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I interpret the statement in a general way: policy should provide the legal/judicial backup for the fulfillment of private contracts.
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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We are likely to reply more on them. They will be as important as food
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Unclear that recent shortages would have been mitigated if there was more production in Europe.
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hard to disagree but beware possible protectionist undertones of "strategic objective"
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lots of items are central to production chains. We can't expect the state to secure supplies of all of them.
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It should be an objective of businesses: Not sure what is the market failure here. Externalities, maybe. (This is far outside my knowledge.)
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 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It's a very interesting question why Europe lacks tech firms. Lack of private angel financing and venture capital seems to play a role.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Oriana Bandiera |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This depends on scientific research, demand, skills etc so not possible to answer this with confidence without good data.
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Sergei Guriev |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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More a consequence of confidence in globalization of production. Perhaps now misplaced given geopolitical shifts.
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is specialization, and there may be better fields for Europe to specialize in, given path dependency of industrial development.
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Little doubt that investment has been insufficient but less clear if this was the only or decisive factor
-see background information here |
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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That's a tautology, the key is why has there being such low investment in high tech?
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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direction of causality is not clear. it is possible that insufficient investment in higher education and engineering is the catalyst
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Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maybe comparative advantage lies elsewhere
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hard to know what the optimal amount of high-tech innovation is. It may be better for Silicon Valley to do tech and EU does something else.
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If so, why don't firms invest? This is the interesting question for me.
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Question C Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is an important question. This seems to play a role in China but not in the US. It's not clear what's best for Europe.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If the alternative is an import tariff on semiconductors, absolutely, a domestic subsidy is a better tool. Tariffs on inputs are a bad idea.
-see background information here |
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Oriana Bandiera |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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private firms have an incentive to do this on their own.
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Governments should only intervene in markets in the case of pressing market failures. This is not one.
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Again, not sure what the market failure is that requires government intervention
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Sergei Guriev |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If this means subsidies or protective tariffs, probably not.
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Open markets and encouraging supplier diversification are at least as good.
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not sure it is the most effective or only way, but it is clear that govt support played huge role in Taiwan and South Korea.
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Growth with European characteristics. That's how we do it in Europe too many positive externalities to leave it to the private sector
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Picking winners tends to be hard for governments and they should concentrate on providing good regulation.
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A wider international approach would be better than striving for self-sufficiency
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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You could imagine various ways this could be done, including "strategic" stockpiles of chips. But none of them seem a good idea.
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I don't know but to me it sounds like protectionism to hide bad policies elsewhere.
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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