Question A:
Preserving the financial viability of France's state pension system is better achieved by raising the effective retirement age than by raising contributions while working.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Preserving the financial viability of France's state pension system is better achieved by raising the effective retirement age than by reducing benefits once retired.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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France already has very high social security taxes. Raising them would have a significant deadweight loss. Raising the retirment age has fewer distortions. Eliminating mandatory retirement at 65 would probably be an even better way.
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is a matter of social preferences, and whichever way it is done is fine with me.
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 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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We are living many years longer in retirement so retirement ages need to rise. The only feasible way to fund this - without slashing all other public spending - is later retirement ages.
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Maristella Botticini |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Yuriy Gorodnichenko |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Sergei Guriev |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The payroll taxes are already extremely high, further increase will suppress economic activity.
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Contribution rates are already high--indeed so much so that there appears to be doubt about whether there is a financial sustainability issue.
-see background information here |
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 Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raising contributions to counter the demographic effect is probably not sustainable, while raising pension age is. The reason is that rising contributions may spur exits from the workforce, either by switching to the shadow economy, or by quitting altogether.
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The answer depends somewhat on the source of the problem. But longer life expectations are an important part of the problem that the system faces.
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 Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Macron expert commission analysis
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 Imran Rasul |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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62 is a low retirement age on European standards and from that perspective an obvious margin to adjust the system.
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rick Van der Ploeg |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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By more people working longer and postponing retirement, vacancies can be filled and the economy can grow upon which it becomes easier to finance retirement.
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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People should be free to choose baswd on actuarially fair pension changes
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Given high life expectancy in France, the current arrangment are unfair to young people who are unlikely to able to obtain pensions on the current conditions available to old people. People who want to retire early should be encouraged to save to support this option.
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Similar reasons to the previous question.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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same answer. matter of social preferences, and initial conditions. If retirees are perceived as being better off than those who work, fairness argument may suggest some adjustment of benefits
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ideally the system would have a menu with age and retirement and levels of benefits. The challenge is people that retire so early they fall below essential living levels - what happens then? They can't starve, so we need minimums benefits and so minimum retirement ages.
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maristella Botticini |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Relative income of pensioners is high presently but should fall dramatically in the coming years due to indexation on prices rather than wages.
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I would favor a more flexible system whereby the retirement age would not be mandated but left at the discretion of those concerned under actuarially fair conditions (and state subsidies for earlier retirement in case of penibility)
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Sergei Guriev |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The benefits are quite low, further reduction would result in major political backlash
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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62 is too young for most, given high expectation of life at that age. Graduated retirement based on years of work or other considerations could also form part of an improved system.
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I disagree with the either-or choice: Because there is another possible option: offering different retirement age-payment level pairs, with equal present value (i.e., on an iso-PV-line) - to accommodate different preferences for work and pay level.
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Again, it depends on the problem. France is currently towards the lower end of the spectrum among developed countries and life expectancy has grown.
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Reducing benefits would not jeopardize financial viability directly, but could do so indirectly, by increasing the likelihood of political unrest.
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Imran Rasul |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends if focus is on efficient allowing for transfers, or if care about different groups winning or losing
-see background information here |
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Current benefits are locked in. Balancing the budget through future benefit reductions take a long time to have effects and therefore require very deep future cuts
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rick Van der Ploeg |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raising the effective retirement age will have some effect, but remember that the French get less pension when they retire before the official retirement age.
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Many European pension recipients are too old to work and rely heavily on their state pension. Asking them to work a few more years when still healthy to sustain relatively generous pensions when older is a fair compromise.
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Reducing benefits would have raised hell with the people who complain about the law but ignore the notion of budget constraint.
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