Future innovations worldwide will not be transformational enough to promote sustained per-capita economic growth rates in the U.S. and western Europe over the next century as high as those over the past 150 years.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The right answer is "uncertain". But "disagree" emphasizes that the view that we are running out of ideas, which has little basis.
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Technical innovation will continue to be rapid, but resource and environmental constraints in a crowded world will hinder per capita growth.
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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That's a ridiculously high bar to cross, since no other period in human history has ever seen anything like the last 150 years!
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The average per capita growth rate over the last 150 years only 1.7-1.8% which would not need to transformative innovations to happen.
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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genomics, robotic, communication.... Emerging economies will increasingly contribute to global R&D spending with positive spillover effects.
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The answer is certainly uncertain
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 Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The long term declining is very worrying. But it also might be that we are not measuring quality or new goods well.
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The cone of dispersion for productivity forecasts is so wide that no such statement has any support. Che sera, sera.
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Economists are bad at predicting the far future. Technological advances have been amazing in the last few years and anything is possible.
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I am certain that anyone sensible should be uncertain. If one can predict innovation well, one should not be an economist but an inventor.
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Innovation need not slow. The vast changes in what we consume and how we work make "income" a poor measure of wellbeing over a century.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Last 150 years have seen huge increases in living standards. Similar future increases an even bet given IT revolution and human ingenuity.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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We would have never forecast most the past breakthroughs, no reason to think we are any better at doing so now. No way this is knowable.
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Wow - tough question. Maybe if the answer is a clear no, we can reconvene the panel in 150 years to discuss.
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Who knows?
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Uncertaint = unpredicatable. The unpredictability of fundamental invention is amply demonstrated from theory and history.
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Unimagined innovations have revolutionized life in the past, and I suspect they will continue to do so.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The surprises of the last 150 years should make clear the folly of trying to forecast the next 150.
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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History suggests optimism, but 150 years is a mighty long time.
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Very hard to predict this far in the future.
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 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Views on this are pure speculation. There is no economic theory or empirical evidence to inform the issue.
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Billions of people escaping poverty unleashes billions of minds for innovation. Hence my optimism. But tempered with much uncertainty.
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