Question A:
Policies that aim to reduce obesity by increasing incentives for physical activity would be more welfare-improving than policies that increase the financial costs of consuming calories.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
A ban on advertising junk foods (those that are high in sugar, salt and fat) would be an effective policy to reduce child obesity.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question C:
Setting targets for schools to reduce obesity (e.g. by diverting financial resources to improve school meals or add cookery to the curriculum) would reduce social welfare because schools in deprived areas, where obesity is higher, are already struggling to deliver the core curriculum.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It seems to me both are desirable.
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Oriana Bandiera |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Improving diet and increasing exercise are both critical for public health and both margins should be attacked.
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I am of the view that in this matter one must be pragmatic and attack the problem from all its angles. Not either or but both
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I do not know enough about the relative health merits of lower calorie intake and physical exercise for reduction of obesity
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Increasing incentives for healthy eating (or decreasing the price of healthy food) might be the best policy.
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Sergei Guriev |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The alternative options are not clearly formulated
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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"Diet trumps exercise for weight loss"
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 Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Heavy consumers (of food leading to obesity) are not always practicing physical exercise - so relative price change has a stronger effect.
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Studies on incentives for exercise have mixed results. Health experts question focus on exercise and some suggest it is an industry tactic.
-see background information here -see background information here -see background information here -see background information here |
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 Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends on the implementation of incentives and whether exercise is compensated by extra sugar
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 Peter Neary |
Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Internal motivation is probably more effective than external enforcement
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Evidence suggests physical exercise less effective in weight control than calorie reduction.
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The literature on changing health behaviours largely concludes that one tool alone (be that tool taxes, bans, facilities) is not enough.
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 Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Positive effects of physical activity are numerous (mental health etc..)
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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studies of addictive goods show taxes change behavior minimally, but affect poor people. we need a multi pronged approach to combat obesity
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 Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Junk food taxes are highly regressive. Gains from small changes in behavior are outweighed by increased tax burden for the poor
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 Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I'm not a dietary expert but I'm pretty sure research shows control of calories intake is much more important than exercise for weight loss.
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A good try, but would it work?
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 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It's not clear how effective it would be but it's worth a try.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A ban seems like an extreme regulation
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Oriana Bandiera |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Banning junk-food adverts for kids cannot hurt but not sure it would be effective. Better yet regulate and fund for improved school meals.
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I certainly agree that such a ban would be positive and would not hurt. How effective? I do not know the evidence
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It might reduce temptation, but prices would likely fall (increasing quantity); and the overall impact of reducing junk food is unclear.
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Sergei Guriev |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In the right direction, but effectiveness?
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Unclear whether ads are the main driver of consumption...
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is evidence to support the statement. Documentary "Fed Up" discusses many environmental & industry factors & parallels to tobacco
-see background information here -see background information here -see background information here |
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kids love sugar and calories. Evolution trumps advertizing.
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It would be part of a solution. However the literature on tobacco, which has bans also suggests need for price solutions as well.
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Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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it can help at the margin but will have minor effects by itself. given the severity of the obesity crisis, we should use all possible tools
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Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There are lots of unhealthy foods. Picking some specific products to ban seems unfair and unworkable.
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question C Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It's not clear to me that healthy food is more expensive than unhealthy food. Also are cookery classes more expensive than other classes?
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Oriana Bandiera |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Governments should provide funding for improved school meals. This is surely cost effective - avoid the health costs of pink slime.
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not in position to evaluate to what extent setting such targets would worsen the ability of schools to deliver the core curriculum
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Improving healthiness of school food is a public health issue and should come from a different budget than the school budget.
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Sergei Guriev |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There should be additional resources for healthier meals. Given the social cost of obesity, this is an obvious case for public subsidy
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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"Core curriculum" that ignores health would seem a dubious concept.
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Too many unintended side-effects, like discrimination accusation or defiance. In any case, there should be extra money, not substitution.
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The issue is which alternative use resources are diverted from. The budget should be increased but not at the expense of teaching, etc.
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Very relevant for deprived areas. Evidence programs work & are cost effective, but tradeoff with schooling is typically not considered.
-see background information here -see background information here |
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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An ill posed question: we need to spend more resources on improving education in deprived areas
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Early obesity is associated with bullying and later poorer health outcomes, which impact on the economic outcomes for indiivduals.
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Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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there is definitely a trade off but i do not know what the cost and effectiveness of a change in school meals/cooking classes is.
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Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It's ok for governments want to provide extra resources to schools to promote healthy eating. But obesity targets for schools are a bad idea
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fighting obesity through education looks to me like a highly productive investment.
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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