Question A:
Policies that aim to reduce obesity by increasing incentives for physical activity would improve social welfare more than policies that increase the financial costs of consuming calories.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
A ban on advertising junk foods (those that are high in sugar, salt, and fat) would be an effective policy to reduce child obesity.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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These policies are unlikely to be as effective.
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Are we supposed to know and have evaluated empirical studies on these things?
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Increasing the cost of obtaining calories, indiscriminately, could backfire by exacerbating inequalities or reducing healthy calorie intake.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A very considerable amount of physical activity is needed to burn a few calories.
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Losing weight requires reduction in calorie intake. Physical activity helps, but does not solve the problem of obesity.
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Science has not made much progress in understanding obesity
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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DWL probably lower w phys activ but unclear if those incentive actually work.One cannot answer this q without solid evidence on efficacy.
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Weight is determined primarily by caloric intake. Obesity policy should focus on calories. Exercise helps improve general health.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is so much we still do not know about the interaction of activity, diet and obesity, let alone what to try to incentivize.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Taxing junk food could conceivably be more effective against obesity than subsidizing exercise. But its incidence would fall on the poor.
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Both policies are valuable, but it is difficult to identify one as most effective in improving social welfare.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The devil would be in the details of either approach.
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Policies that increase the cost of calories are easier to implement and less prone to loopholes and manipulation
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Details matter.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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