Question A:
The Fed should raise its target interest rate when it meets in mid-December.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
The Fed should have raised interest rates sooner, rather than leaving them near zero for this long.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Persistent low interest create credit misallocation as in the runup to the global crisis. This has to be balanced against Keynesian factors.
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Low labor force participation rate and inflation but uncertainty over when it will happen is bad.
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The FOMC should raise, given no big interim adverse shocks, to mitigate inflation risk. The macro vital signs look healthy enough now.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This week's job data are enough to put me somewhat reluctantly in the agree column, though I would like to see more evidence of 2% inflation
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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dangerous & loosening world. still no US inflation. reversal in near future would damage credibility of already credibility-deficited fed
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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where are price pressures? still a lot of people missing from the labor market. boogeyman of bubbles always lurks but where is she?
-see background information here |
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The Fed has somewhat overstated the current level of the natural unemployment rate and fails to understand that it is falling.
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I don't think so. The recovery is still weak and there are no serious signs of inflation. Also a little inflation may be good.
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The Fed spends many 10^7 dollars annually on econ research. In mid-2008, the Fed did not think that a crisis was at hand. With my budget...
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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As Mike Mussa once famously said "if not now, when?".
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Inflation has fallen below the Fed's 2% target for over three years running, and is forecast to remain below for at least awhile.
-see background information here |
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 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Has more attention ever been paid to 25 basis points? We could amend the constitution with less fuss.
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Current inflation remains far below the target level
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The conventional wisdom is that the strong November jobs report clinches a rate increase, and I see no reason to disagree.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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.25 bps doesn't matter much either way. It is the slope that matters. Go slow I say.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It's been a close call. That the tradeoffs favored an earlier exit was not clear. Inflation was too low. Job creation was moderately good.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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no way
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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fiscal policy was absent after the stimulus (see link) even today millions of potential workers are missing from the job market
-see background information here |
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The Fed's job is to stabilize inflation, barring significant inflationary shocks, and inflation continues to run below any reasonable target
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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See answer to last question.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I cannot be more knowledgeable than the Fed.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Delay in raising may have inflated asset prices.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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certainly would have voted to raise in september, there are always excuses to delay, time to put two way risk back into the bond market
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Inflation was low and the recovery was weak---low interest rates seemed indicated.
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Note that this does not allow for those who think should be later. Survey bias.
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Inflation has been surprising dormant, so there appear to have been few adverse consequences of prolonged low rates.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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But only two meetings ago, in October
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Congress gave them no choice. We should have been borrowing at negative r and building infrastructure. And no inflation in sight.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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