Question A:
Europe’s economic growth performance over the last 25 years has been measurably better than it would have been in the absence of the single currency.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
With euro area member states having given up their ability to carry out independent monetary policy, it is substantially more difficult for them to respond effectively to country-specific macroeconomic disturbances.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I think this is probably true but measuring relative to the counterfactual is very difficult. This is especially so given the Eurozone crisis.
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It has avoided what would likely have been exchange rate crises in the weaker countries. But it has made normal macroeconomic adjustment substantially harder, in the absence of country specific monetary policy and exchange rate.
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Maristella Botticini |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Counterfactual exercise is always difficult. Nevertheless there is serious empirical evidence of the positive impact of the single market, although not all has been reaped yet (services).
-see background information here |
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maybe not uniformly true for all euro countries though
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Yuriy Gorodnichenko |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Sergei Guriev |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Disappointing result to date reflect weakness of euro area risk-sharing and poor national macroeconomic management
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 Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Even if there were no endogenous dynamics strengthening the businesses in the Eurozone, which I believe to exist, the shere abolition of exchange risk and the associated costs of risk management will had a positive impact on Eurozone growth.
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Evidence for overall economic growth in Euro adopting countries is decidedly mixed, though the effects differ across countries. However, evidence for the growth effect of EU integration is generally positive. Perhaps success of Euro should be judged on price stability?
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 Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Since the performance was mediocre, one may dream of a rosier alternative. But, insofar as we would have the two big shocks---a financial crisis in 2007-08 and a pandemic in 2020 anyway---without the euro, many EA regions would have done much worse in response to them.
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Silvana Tenreyro |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rick Van der Ploeg |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The Euro has been positive for growth in important respects but 2010-12 showed risks of monetary union without more fiscal integration
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Long-run growth depends on structural factors. Monetary and exchange rate policy are generally neutral over the long-run. There are some euro area members that have probably benefitted from macroeconomic stability relative to the alternative but growth effects would be minor.
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Better only inasmuch it has prevented currency crises.
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Monetary policy is certainly a powerful policy tool but in addition there are fiscal policy and various other policies. Also, ECB monetary policy is potentially much more powerful than a single country's. Whether there is a substantial difference is again difficult to establish.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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this was half of my answer to the first question.
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Maristella Botticini |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Europeans have limited experience of floating regimes.. Furthermore, in principle fiscal policy is more effective within a monetary union than in a flex regime.
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Sergei Guriev |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pre-euro national monetary policies were often destabilising.
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The statement is probably true. But keep in mind that the number of state-specific macro incidences may have declined as well - caused by the monetary unionl.
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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With common monetary policy and EU-wide constraints on fiscal policy, there aren't many country-specific policies left to offset country-specific shocks. One remaining tool is macroprudential policy, but its potency is limited.
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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More difficult, but not substantially more difficult. Also, for many of the countries, decades of experience showed that independent monetary policy was not optimal or even good monetary policy.
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Unability to depreciate versus higher resilience due to better monetary and financial stability frameworks.
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Silvana Tenreyro |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Important to note that there are other macro costs and benefits to weigh in when evaluating the advantages of a monetary union, beyond the cost of giving up independent monetary policy (such cost is mitigated by the high correlation of shocks and spillovers across EA countries).
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rick Van der Ploeg |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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And independent monetary policy has been valuable for the UK
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This statement ignores the reality of European monetary policy prior to the euro. Exchange rate stability was highly valued and the EMS required countries to largely shadow the Bundesbank's interest rates. EMU at least gives everyone a say in policy.
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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That's it, no own central bank anymore.
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