Question A:
Allowing Medicare to negotiate prices with pharmaceutical companies will lead to a substantial reduction in the costs of prescription drugs for US retirees.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Allowing imports of medicines from Canada will lead to a substantial reduction in the costs of prescription drugs for US consumers without compromising safety.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Just like every other civilized country does -- but unfortunately, the US plans to do this only for Medicare prices rather than all pharma prices
|
||||
 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
By buying in larger quantities, qunaitty discounts can be negotiated.
|
||||
 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
If done right
|
||||
 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
But will carry the risk of reducing the incentive to develop new drugs.
|
||||
 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
U.S. prices are 2-3 times those in 32 other OECD countries.
-see background information here |
||||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Parag Pathak |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
There will surely be a reduction, but whether or not it is substantial will depend on the details of the negotiations.
|
||||
 Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
It isn’t clear how much expenditure will be represented in the drugs being negotiated.
|
||||
 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 James Stock |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Negotiated prices would be closer to what buyers abroad pay.
|
||||
 Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
In the short run, certainly. Everyone raises future innovation effects, and I understand the argument, but I'm not sure why the government paying P>>>MC on the margin is the way to subsidize research. Drug-by-drug, I think it makes sense for gov't to bargain like any other buyer.
|
||||
 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Ivan Werning |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
This would be a pathetic policy concession: the US doesn't have the political spine to regulate its own prices; so it must free-ride on Canada's higher-functioning healthcare system.
*Comment amended
|
||||
|
Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Opening several supply lines into a single market is a time-tested way to increase competition and lower prices. It reduces the ability of third-degree pirce discrimination.
|
||||
|
Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Pharma companies have ways to prevent this -- e.g., not sending that many drugs to Canada, approving different drugs in different countries.
|
||||
|
Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The big issue with reducing price is reducing the incentive to innovate. One way to view this is that it reduces the ability of drug companies to price discriminate across countries.
|
||||
|
Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
If doable
|
||||
|
Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Both of these policies could lead to cost savings for consumers in the short and medium run. However, one potential concern is how such policies will affect the incentive of pharmaceutical companies to innovate new drugs going forward.
|
||||
|
Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
More likely that pharma companies equilibrate Canadian prices or stop supplying to Canada.
|
||||
|
Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
of course the question is what this does to incentives to innovate for the suppliers, we know the sign of that effect not its magnitude
|
||||
|
Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
This may increase prices abroad more than it lowers prices in the U.S.
|
||||
|
Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Parag Pathak |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Canada is a much smaller market, reliant to an important extent on imports, in which drug shortages are not uncommon. There is no reason to think the supply curve of drug exports from Canada would be elastic.
|
||||
|
Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The Canadians will ban such imports to stop their own prices from rising.
|
||||
|
Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
James Stock |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Competition lowers prices.
|
||||
|
Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I think the equilibrium is harder to predict for re-importation than Medicare/Medicaid bargaining. But I think some price drops are more likely than not.
|
||||
|
Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
whether we get to "substantial" depends on how much Canada is willing to sell and how much pharma is willing to supply them with.
|
||||
|
Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The long term consequences may be very different, but I think very difficult to be confident.
|
||||
|
Ivan Werning |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
