Question A:
The amendments to the Northern Ireland protocol agreed by the UK and the EU are unlikely to have a measurable direct impact on UK growth over the next two years.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
If renewed UK-EU scientific cooperation were achieved in the wake of the Windsor framework, it would be likely to have a measurable positive impact on UK growth over the next five years.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The protocol is likely to reset EU-UK relations. It will set the stage for a much more harmonious relationship, which could well have a measurable effect on UK growth.
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Taking a more pro-EU approach and reducing uncertainty could improve British growth. This is unwinding a little of the craziest bits of Brexit.
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Maristella Botticini |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Could reduce the level of institutional uncertainty and unlock future agreements such as UK-US. But probably limited impact in the short term.
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Yuriy Gorodnichenko |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Sergei Guriev |
Sciences Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Direct effect will be small given that Northern Ireland accounts for only 2 per cent of the UK GDP. Indirect and longer term effects could be greater if the deal unlocks improved UK-EU cooperation.
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 Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The Northern Ireland trade volume is limited in size, relative to the UK economy. The importance of "Windsor" agreement is more symbolic, and it eases the path towards better collaboration between UK and EU in the future. In this indirect way, there agreement may impact growth.
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Better relations with the EU can increase business and investor confidence
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There will be longer term positive effects (investment in NI, rejoining Horizon programme, ...) but nothing significant that soon.
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Imran Rasul |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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They help the UK move on and start many other reforms it needs.
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Effect is small, but on Northern Ireland will be non-trivial. In general effets of Brexit have been large and negative and will continue to be so for decades
-see background information here |
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 Rick Van der Ploeg |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not sure. It will definitely boost economy of Northern Ireland. It may even be at the expense of the economy of Great Britain. It is all madness, since before Brexit most Northern Ireland and Great Britain already had access to each others' markets and those of the EU.
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Positive but unclear whether a measurable impact in two years
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Very little in trade policy has much impact in the short run but it is important for the UK’s long-term prosperity that it have good economic relations with its nearest neighbours.
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The impact of local research on growth is likely to be small, at best.
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Difficult to say how effective this collabortion will be. The last few years have been quite difficult for the relationship.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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. Not first order anyway and 5 years is likely too short to see measurable effects
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Is this a trick question? It takes far more than 5 years for a rise in basic science funding to impact GDP - think more like 10 to 30 years :-)
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Maristella Botticini |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Scientific cooperation is always good for growth. But takes time to materialize.
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This would obviously be very positive but it is hard to be sure that the impact would be significantly positive within 5 years.
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Sergei Guriev |
Sciences Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The deal unlocks potential improvements in UK-EU economic cooperation removing some of the uncertainty that holds back UK investment post-Brexit. (Also could remove certain medium term threats to the Northern Ireland and Ireland economies).
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Actual scientific collaboration will not change by much (with or without the framework), and I guess that UK will substitute for EU money anyway - given that net funding of Research via EU is close to zero anyway (note: participation in Horizon program requires co-funding by UK).
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Effect is likely directionally positive, but scientific progress takes time to manifest in growth.
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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At 5-year horizon, positive effects on research (e.g. in biotech) and associated economic activity are likely - but growth effects not huge.
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Imran Rasul |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Science and education are two of the few world-leading industries in the country
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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UK re-joining Horizon is fantastic news and great for UK and EU science. But the lags between research, innovation and growth are long, variable and uncertain
-see background information here |
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Rick Van der Ploeg |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The demise of Horizon, ERC and other EU grants is a disaster for UK universities, and the potential innovations necessary to fuel growth. I do not have much confidence that this will be resolved in the same manner as it was before Brexit.
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The question contains a big “if”. Failure to renew cooperation could be quite damaging for the UK economy.
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The sign of the impact is clear. It’s magnitude is not.
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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