European Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

Energy Sources

Europe

Energy Sources

Question A:

Subsidizing renewable energy sources is better than taxing fossil fuels, assuming the subsidy or tax would be set at levels that would reduce carbon emissions by an equivalent amount.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Germany’s solar-energy subsidies to date have produced net social benefits for Germany.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question C:

Solar-energy subsidies to date in Germany and other countries have produced net social benefits for the world.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

November 9, 2017

Behavioral Economics

Europe

Behavioral Economics

Insights from psychology about individual behavior – examples of which include limited rationality, low self-control, or a taste for fairness – predict several important types of observed market outcomes that fully-rational economic models do not.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

October 19, 2017

Factors Contributing to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis

Europe

Factors Contributing to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis

Please rate the importance (0=none; 5= highest) of each item below (presented to panelists in randomized order) in contributing to the 2008 global financial crisis. © 2017. Initiative on Global Markets. Source: IGM Economic Experts Panels www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel © 2017. Initiative on Global Markets. Source: IGM Economic Experts Panels www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel The following items were presented to […]

October 17, 2017

Refugees in Germany

Europe

Refugees in Germany

This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel statement:

The influx of refugees into Germany beginning in the summer of 2015 will generate net economic benefits for German citizens over the succeeding decade.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

July 12, 2017

Robots and Artificial Intelligence

Europe

Robots and Artificial Intelligence

This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Holding labor market institutions and job training fixed, rising use of robots and artificial intelligence is likely to increase substantially the number of workers in advanced countries who are unemployed for long periods.

B) Rising use of robots and artificial intelligence in advanced countries is likely to create benefits large enough that they could be used to compensate those workers who are substantially negatively affected for their lost wages.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

June 30, 2017

Ride Sharing

Europe

Ride Sharing

This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A)   Consumers will be better off, on balance, if European cities treat firms that provide ride-sharing platforms (such as Uber) as substantively different from taxi firms, and thus not necessarily warranting the same regulation.

B)   Assuming that taxi and ride-sharing companies were treated as substantively similar — including requirements that they operate on an equal footing regarding safety, insurance and taxation — letting ride-sharing services compete without restrictions on prices or routes would raise consumer welfare.

C)    Regardless of how ride-sharing services are treated, existing regulations for traditional taxi firms in many European cities harm consumers by limiting competition.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

June 7, 2017

France’s Labor Market

Europe

France’s Labor Market

This week’s European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Revising France’s labor market policies — by reducing employment protection, decentralizing labor negotiations to the firm level, and making training programs more accessible and responsive to labor demands — would, all else equal, increase productivity in France’s economy.

B) Reducing employment protection would reduce the equilibrium unemployment rate in France.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

May 17, 2017

ECB Asset Purchases

Europe

ECB Asset Purchases

This week’s European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) The ECB's asset purchases over the past two years have reduced the threat of deflation in the euro area as a whole.

B) If the economic outlook in the euro area becomes less favorable, then increasing the ECB's asset purchase program (in size or duration) would substantially increase the euro area's economic growth over the following five years.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

April 25, 2017

Diversified Investing

Europe

Diversified Investing

This week’s European Economic Experts Panel statement:

In general, absent any inside information, an equity investor can expect to do better by holding a well-diversified, low-fee, passive index fund than by holding a few stocks.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

March 22, 2017

Aging

Europe

Aging

This week's European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Without changes in policy, a rising share of people who are over age 65 will exert a substantial downward influence on per capita real GDP in western European countries.

B) In European countries where the share of those over 65 is rising, there are net social benefits to adjusting retirement ages for state-financed (including pay-as-you-go) pension systems upwards, so that revised retirement ages better reflect longer life expectancies.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

February 28, 2017