European Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

  • ‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
  • ‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.
Europe

Central Banks and Productivity

Britain’s Labour party recently proposed giving the Bank of England a target of 3% annual labor productivity growth. Consider the following statement:
Central banks cannot significantly increase productivity growth over a ten year horizon, except perhaps by promoting macroeconomic stability.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
 
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Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Europe

Digital Sales Tax

Question A:

The European Commission has proposed new rules to ensure that “digital business activities are taxed in a fair and growth-friendly way in the EU”. Consider two statements regarding this proposal:

An EU-wide 3% tax on revenue from digital activities would, on balance, be a good idea.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question B:

If the EU decides to tax digital service providers, it would be better — given the difficulties of measuring and verifying digital activity — to tax them on the revenue, rather than the profits, that they generate locally.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
 
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Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Europe

China-Europe Trade

This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel Statements:

A) Trade with China makes most Europeans better off because, among other advantages, they can buy goods that are made or assembled more cheaply in China.

B) Some Europeans who work in the production of competing goods, such as clothing and furniture, are made worse off by trade with China.

C) If the EU followed the new US steel tariffs by imposing similar EU tariffs on steel from China, it would improve Europeans’ welfare. 
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Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Europe

Greece

This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel Statements:

A) Assuming it exits its third bailout program this summer without an immediate restructuring or other debt relief, Greece is unlikely to default on its sovereign debt in the coming decade.

B) Greece would be better off if it had decided to exit the euro between 2011 and 2015.

C) If Greece had defaulted on (or restructured) its private debt in 2010, while also staying within the euro, that combination would have been better for Greece than either exiting the euro or proceeding as it has actually done. 
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Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Europe

US Healthcare: Prices vs Quantity and Quality

This week's IGM European Experts Panel statement:

The US spends roughly 17% of GDP on healthcare, according to the OECD; most European countries spend less than 12% of GDP.

Higher quality-adjusted US healthcare prices contribute relatively more to the extra US spending than does the combination of higher quantity and quality of US care (interpreting quantity and quality to reflect both greater American healthcare needs due to underlying population health and the delivery of more or better healthcare services to Americans). 
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Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Europe

Corporate Tax-Rate Harmonization

This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A)   Holding other policies fixed, the average European would be better off if every European country taxed corporate profits at a rate of 20% (based as closely as possible on a common definition of profits).

B)   If other policies were held fixed and every European country taxed corporate profits at a common rate of 20%, then reducing that common rate substantially below 20% would make the average European better off. 
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Business, Management, & Corporate Performance
Europe

Board Quotas for Women

This week's IGM European Experts Panel statements:

A) All else equal, if corporations throughout Europe set quotas for a minimum number of women board members, the shareholder value of European companies would increase.

B) Taking into account the likely effects on investments in human capital by men and women, setting quotas throughout Europe for a minimum number of women board members would generate substantial net benefits for Europeans. 
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Business, Management, & Corporate Performance
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