European Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

  • ‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
  • ‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.
Europe

Banks and Financial Crises

Question A:

Research on the nature and impact of bank runs has made it possible to limit the occurrence of financial crises and the economic damage they cause.

Question B:

Despite repeated reforms of financial regulation (and macroprudential policies in some countries), there will always be occasional financial crises.

 
Europe

Bankers’ Bonus Cap

Question A:

The UK’s removal of the cap on bankers' bonuses (introduced by the EU in 2014 and which limits payouts to two times annual base salary) will provide a measurable boost to the country’s economic growth.

Question B:

Removing the cap on bankers' bonuses will measurably enhance the global competitiveness of the UK’s financial services sector.

Question C:

Removing the cap on bankers' bonuses will pose a measurable risk to financial stability in the UK.

 
Europe

Oil Price Cap

In early September 2022, the finance ministers of the G7 countries confirmed their intention to implement a price cap on purchases of Russian oil and related products. Their objective is to reduce Russia’s ability to fund its invasion of Ukraine while limiting the war’s impact on global energy prices. We invited our European and US experts to express their views on this proposal, asking both panels whether they agree or disagree with the following statements, and, if so, how strongly and with what degree of confidence:

 
Europe

Energy Sanctions

As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues and many call for a strengthening of sanctions, an alternative to a full energy embargo has been discussed in the form of European Union tariffs on imports of Russian gas. We invited our European and US experts to express their views on this proposal, asking both panels whether they agree or disagree with the following statement, and, if so, how strongly and with what degree of confidence:

 
Europe

Ukraine

What are the likely economic consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the responses by the international community? We invited our US and European experts to express their views on the potential fallout for the Russian economy, the European economy, the US dollar’s role as an international currency, and global growth and inflation. We asked both panels whether they agreed or disagreed with the following statements, and, if so, how strongly and with what degree of confidence: