European Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

AI and Productivity Growth

Europe

AI and Productivity Growth

Question A:

Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to a substantial increase in the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a substantially bigger impact on the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades than the internet has had over the past two decades.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity

April 27, 2023

France’s Retirement Age

Europe

France’s Retirement Age

Question A:

Preserving the financial viability of France's state pension system is better achieved by raising the effective retirement age than by raising contributions while working.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Preserving the financial viability of France's state pension system is better achieved by raising the effective retirement age than by reducing benefits once retired.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Demographics, Aging, & Gender

April 20, 2023

Banking Crisis

Europe

Banking Crisis

This European survey examines (a) Financial regulators in the US and Europe lack the tools and authority to deter runs on banks by uninsured depositors; (b) Not guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank in full would have created substantial damage to the US economy; (c) Fully guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank substantially increases banks’ incentives to engage in excessive risk-taking

Banking

March 30, 2023

Windsor Framework

Europe

Windsor Framework

This European survey examines (a) The amendments to the Northern Ireland protocol agreed by the UK and the EU are unlikely to have a measurable direct impact on UK growth over the next two years; (b) If renewed UK-EU scientific cooperation were achieved in the wake of the Windsor framework, it would be likely to have a measurable positive impact on UK growth over the next five years

Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity

March 8, 2023

The Invisible Hand

Europe

The Invisible Hand

This European survey examines (a) Adam Smith’s metaphor of the invisible hand has been foundational to the development of modern economic theory; (b) Adam Smith’s metaphor of the invisible hand has been commonly misinterpreted as advocacy for pure laissez-faire capitalism

Democracy, Government, & Public Policy

February 15, 2023

State Aid

Europe

State Aid

This European survey examines (a) Loosening regulations on state aid to allow targeted incentives for companies in certain sectors will substantially improve the EU’s relative attractiveness for corporate investment; (b) Loosening regulations on state aid will give a substantial advantage to the economies of EU members with stronger public finances; (c) Even if looser regulations on state aid are temporary, they risk permanent damage to the EU’s longstanding competition policy regime

Investment, Infrastructure, & Cities

January 25, 2023

Electric Vehicles

Europe

Electric Vehicles

This European survey examines (a) Without government intervention, take-up of electric vehicles will be substantially less than is desirable to reduce carbon emissions; (b) To encourage greater take-up of electric vehicles, public expenditure on infrastructure to support them (such as charging stations) is likely to be more cost-effective than providing equivalent amounts as tax credits/purchase rebates for buyers

Environment, Climate Change, & Natural Resources

December 13, 2022

Twitter

Europe

Twitter

This European survey examines (a) Network externalities give Twitter an incumbent advantage that will slow substantially the migration of users who would prefer alternative platforms;
(b) As of now, there needs to be more government regulation around Twitter’s content moderation and personal data protection.

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

November 29, 2022

Responding to Carbon Leakage

Europe

Responding to Carbon Leakage

This European survey examines (a) The carbon border adjustment mechanism will ensure that the European Union’s green objectives are not undermined by the relocation of EU production in the sectors under the mechanism to non-EU countries with less ambitious climate policies (‘carbon leakage'); (b) To the extent that the carbon border adjustment mechanism is effective in reducing emissions and carbon leakage, it will impose substantial costs on the economies of poorer countries

Environment, Climate Change, & Natural Resources

November 9, 2022

Banks and Financial Crises

Europe

Banks and Financial Crises

This European survey examines (a) Research on the nature and impact of bank runs has made it possible to limit substantially the wider economic damage from financial crises; (b) Reforms of financial regulation since 2008 (and macroprudential policies in some countries) will not substantially reduce the probability of financial crises.

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

October 18, 2022