Clark Center Forum

About the Clark Center Forum

The Forum for the Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets is home to the European, Finance, and US Economic Experts Panels as well as a repository of thoughtful, current, and reliable information regarding topics of the day.
Finance

Banks’ Business Model

Question A:

Since maturity transformation is an inherent feature of commercial banks' business model, some duration mismatch between assets and liabilities is unavoidable.

Question B:

For the purposes of capital regulation, banks should be required to mark their holdings of Treasury and Agency securities to market at all times (even though their loans are not marked to market).

 
Europe

AI, Innovation and Society

Question A:

If countries could impose a ban on the use of ChatGPT and similar generative AI chatbot services that is technologically effective, they would experience a measurably negative impact on national innovation.

Question B:

Regardless of whether advances in AI spur productivity growth, they are likely to create deep challenges for society – in areas from labor markets to politics, and including disinformation, privacy, crime, and warfare – that will be difficult to anticipate, plan for, and contain.

 
US

TikTok

This US survey examines (a) If enacted and technologically effective, a national ban on the use of TikTok would have a measurably negative impact on US innovation; (b) If enacted and technologically effective, a national ban on the use of TikTok would have a measurably positive impact on the profits of the big US tech companies 
US

AI and Productivity Growth

This US survey examines (a) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to a substantial increase in the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades; (b) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a substantially bigger impact on the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades than the internet has had over the past two decades 
Europe

AI and Productivity Growth

This European survey examines (a) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to a substantial increase in the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades; (b) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a substantially bigger impact on the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades than the internet has had over the past two decades 
Europe

France’s Retirement Age

This European survey examines (a) Preserving the financial viability of France's state pension system is better achieved by raising the effective retirement age than by raising contributions while working; (b) Preserving the financial viability of France's state pension system is better achieved by raising the effective retirement age than by reducing benefits once retired 
Finance

Discount Rates

This Finance survey examines (a) Despite the empirical failures of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) in explaining expected stock returns, a shareholder-value maximizing publicly-traded firm should still use the CAPM to calculate the cost of equity in capital budgeting; (b) The equity risk premium that U.S. publicly traded firms should use in cost of equity calculations in April 2023 is above 6% 
US

Dollar Dominance

This US survey examines (a) Use of the renminbi in world trade, as a reserve currency, and/or for foreign bond denomination is likely to increase substantially relative to the dollar over the next ten years; (b) Ceteris paribus, a shift to a more multi-polar international monetary system would have substantial negative implications for the US economy 
Finance

Banking Crisis

This Finance survey examines (a) Financial regulators in the US and Europe lack the tools and authority to deter runs on banks by uninsured depositors; (b) Not guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank in full would have created substantial damage to the US economy; (c) Fully guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank substantially increases banks’ incentives to engage in excessive risk-taking 
Europe

Banking Crisis

This European survey examines (a) Financial regulators in the US and Europe lack the tools and authority to deter runs on banks by uninsured depositors; (b) Not guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank in full would have created substantial damage to the US economy; (c) Fully guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank substantially increases banks’ incentives to engage in excessive risk-taking