US Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

  • ‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
  • ‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.
US

Expectations, Policy and Growth

Question A:

When evaluating the consequences of any shifts in economic policy regimes, it is essential to consider potential changes in the behavior of economic agents due to revised expectations.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question B:

The empirical evidence on how monetary policy affects the economy in the short run is most consistent with the assumption that economic agents form rational expectations.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question C:

Economic research has established that the welfare consequences of differences in countries’ growth and level of development are substantially higher than the welfare costs of business cycles.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
 
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Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises
US

TikTok

Question A:

If enacted and technologically effective, a national ban on the use of TikTok would have a measurably negative impact on US innovation.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question B:

If enacted and technologically effective, a national ban on the use of TikTok would have a measurably positive impact on the profits of the big US tech companies.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
 
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Regulation, Competition, & Market Power
US

AI and Productivity Growth

This US survey examines (a) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to a substantial increase in the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades; (b) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a substantially bigger impact on the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades than the internet has had over the past two decades 
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Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity
US

Dollar Dominance

This US survey examines (a) Use of the renminbi in world trade, as a reserve currency, and/or for foreign bond denomination is likely to increase substantially relative to the dollar over the next ten years; (b) Ceteris paribus, a shift to a more multi-polar international monetary system would have substantial negative implications for the US economy 
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Financial Markets & Banking
US

Banking Crisis

This US survey examines (a) Financial regulators in the US and Europe lack the tools and authority to deter runs on banks by uninsured depositors; (b) Not guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank in full would have created substantial damage to the US economy; (c) Fully guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank substantially increases banks’ incentives to engage in excessive risk-taking 
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Banking
US

Medicare Funding

This US survey examines (a) If it is implemented, the proposed increase in the tax rate on earned and business income above $400,000 in the Biden budget, along with other proposed changes to Medicare, would extend the solvency of the Medicare program for the next 25 years; (b) If it is implemented, the proposed reform of Medicare drug negotiations in the Biden budget is likely to lead to a substantial reduction in drug prices for beneficiaries; (c) If it is implemented, the proposed reform of Medicare drug negotiations in the Biden budget is likely to lead to a substantial reduction in the development of beneficial new drugs 
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Healthcare & Wellbeing
US

Liability of Internet Publishers

This US survey examines (a) Imposing stronger legal liability on online platforms for content posted by users would substantially reduce the amount of user-generated content available on those platforms; (b) Imposing stronger legal liability on online platforms for content posted by users would substantially damage those platforms’ advertising businesses; (c) Imposing stronger legal liability on online platforms for content posted by users would substantially reduce the amount of misinformation and disinformation present on those platforms 
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Democracy, Government, & Public Policy
US

Debt Ceiling

With the US federal government having reached the current debt ceiling set by Congress and amid political tensions about raising the limit, we invited our panels of experts in economics and finance to express their views on the potential effects of default, as well as the ceiling’s impact on the long-run size of the debt. Over the weekend before the recent meeting between President Biden and Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy, we asked the US economics panel whether they agreed or disagreed with the following statements, and, if so, how strongly and with what degree of confidence:

 
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Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises
US

Non-Compete Clauses

This US survey examines (a) Prohibiting firms from imposing employment contract provisions that prevent workers from moving to a competitor or starting a competing business would lead to a substantial increase in wages in the affected industries; (b) A ban on non-compete clauses would lead to a measurable increase in innovation; (c) A ban on non-compete clauses would lead to a measurable reduction in firms’ investment in staff training

  
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Jobs, Pay, & Unemployment
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Topics

BankingBondsBusiness Cycles, Recessions, & CrisesBusiness, Management, & Corporate PerformanceCorporate GovernanceDemocracy, Government, & Public PolicyDemographics, Aging, & GenderEconomic Growth, Development, & ProductivityEconomists, Economic Theory, & Economic OrganizationsEducation & SkillsEnvironment, Climate Change, & Natural ResourcesFinance and the EconomyFinancial CrisesFinancial Markets & BankingFinancial RegulationHealthcare & WellbeingInternational FinanceInternational Trade & Exchange RatesInvestment ManagementInvestment, Infrastructure, & CitiesInvestmentsJobs, Pay, & UnemploymentMigrationMonetary Policy, Interest Rates, & InflationPoverty, Inequality, & Social MobilityPublic Debt & DeficitsRegulation, Competition, & Market PowerScience, Technology, & InnovationSocial Policy & SocietyTaxes & Public SpendingTransport

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Capital Markets Union

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Artificial Intelligence Act

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