This Finance survey examines (a) The Federal Reserve has begun quantitative tightening (QT) to reduce the size of its balance sheet. Fed holdings of Treasury securities have declined by $800 billion relative to the March 2020 peak. The Fed currently holds $4.9 trillion of Treasury securities, significantly larger than the $2.5 trillion holdings prior to the Covid pandemic. A reduction in Fed holdings of Treasury securities measurably increases the interest rate on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds (b) A reduction in Fed holdings of Treasury securities measurably increases volatility in the Treasury market
Keyword: Federal Reserve
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This Finance survey examines: (a) September 2023 was the 25th anniversary of the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM). In response to LTCM's troubles, the Federal Reserve orchestrated a multi-billion dollar rescue package by a consortium of banks and it cut the Federal funds rate target by 75 basis points within six weeks. The hedge fund sector's contribution to systemic risk is substantially lower today than at the time of LTCM; (b) Financial market participants' expectation that the Fed will aggressively ease monetary policy in response to financial market dislocations is a substantial source of financial instability.
This week's European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) The current combination of US fiscal and monetary policy poses a serious risk of prolonged higher inflation.
B) Current EU and national fiscal policy plans are likely to leave European output below potential a year from now.
Amid
This week's US Economic Experts Panel statement:
The Fed's revised strategy to focus on employment shortfalls and a more flexible interpretation of the inflation target will make little practical difference to monetary policy outcomes over the next decade.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) The concept of “maximum sustainable employment” is well defined enough to be used beneficially in economic policymaking.
B) Right now the US economy is operating below maximum sustainable employment.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) If the Fed changed its inflation target from 2% to 4%, the long-run costs of inflation for households would be essentially unchanged.
B) Raising the inflation target to 4% would make it possible for the Fed to lower rates by a greater amount in a future recession.
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