Keyword: President Trump

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US

Tariffs

This US survey examines (a) Tripling existing import taxes on Chinese steel and aluminum products would lead to measurably higher employment in the US steel industry over the next five years; (b) Tripling the tariffs would lead to measurably higher steel and aluminum prices for American producers and measurably higher finished-good prices for American consumers; (c) The gains for the American economy from tripling the tariffs would measurably outweigh the losses.
US

Tax Reforms

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements: A) Since 1980, whenever substantial growth effects have been required to make a tax reform plan revenue neutral, the actual outcome has invariably been a fall in tax revenue as a share of GDP. B) The tax reform plan proposed by President Trump this week would likely pay for itself through higher economic growth.
US

Trump and Share Prices

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements: A) US share prices have risen since Donald Trump’s election victory at least partly because the policies he seems poised to implement are likely to increase US after-tax corporate profits. B) US share prices have risen since Donald Trump’s election victory at least partly because the policies he seems poised to implement are likely to increase US real GDP growth.
US

100-Day Plan

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements: A)  If all of the “Seven actions to protect American workers” in President-elect Trump’s 100-day plan (see link) are enacted, it will more likely than not improve the economic prospects of middle-class Americans over the next decade. B)  If all of the “Seven actions to protect American workers” in President-elect Trump’s 100-day plan are enacted, it will more likely than not improve the economic prospects of low-skilled Americans over the next decade.
US

Presidents and Jobs

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement: Claims by incumbent presidents and challengers about how many private-sector jobs can be created in a four-year period by sector-level or other targeted policies should be viewed as rough guesses, because overall macroeconomic conditions drive aggregate employment in ways that dominate any net effects of polices that focus on specific industries or households.