This European survey examines (a) The amendments to the Northern Ireland protocol agreed by the UK and the EU are unlikely to have a measurable direct impact on UK growth over the next two years; (b) If renewed UK-EU scientific cooperation were achieved in the wake of the Windsor framework, it would be likely to have a measurable positive impact on UK growth over the next five years
Keyword: trade agreements
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The UK’s exit from the European Union (EU) was finally completed on 1 January 2021, nearly five years after the Brexit referendum of 2016. We invited both our European and US panels to express their views on the likely long-term effects on both the UK economy and the aggregate economy of the remaining 27 EU members. We asked the experts whether they agreed or disagreed with the following statements, and, if so, how strongly and with what degree of confidence:
The UK’s exit from the European Union (EU) was finally completed on 1 January 2021, nearly five years after the Brexit referendum of 2016. We invited both our European and US panels to express their views on the likely long-term effects on both the UK economy and the aggregate economy of the remaining 27 EU members. We asked the experts whether they agreed or disagreed with the following statements, and, if so, how strongly and with what degree of confidence:
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Following the UK election result, the certainty that the country is going to leave the European Union will provide a substantial short-term boost to the UK economy.
B) The near certainty that the UK will leave the European Union's customs union and single market in 2020 offers a sizeable export market opportunity for American business.
This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Following the UK election result, the certainty that the country is going to leave the European Union will provide a substantial short-term boost to the UK economy.
B) Given that the transition period currently expires at the end of 2020, there is still a considerable risk that the UK will leave the European Union without a trade agreement.
C) Leaving the European Union without a trade agreement would have a large negative impact on the UK economy.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
An important reason why many workers in Michigan and Ohio have lost jobs in recent years is because US presidential administrations over the past 30 years have not been tough enough in trade negotiations.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) By lowering bargaining costs, fast-track negotiating authority for the president makes it more likely that the U.S. can conclude major trade deals.
B) Past major trade deals have benefited most Americans.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Refusing to liberalize trade unless partner countries adopt new labor or environmental rules is a bad policy, because even if the new standards would reduce distortions on some dimensions, such a policy involves threatening to maintain large distortions in the form of restricted trade.
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