Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Products

On 10 January 2024, the SEC approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products:
https://www.sec.gov/news/statement/gensler-statement-spot-bitcoin-011023\

The SEC's approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products makes investors overall measurably better off.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Campbell
John Campbell
Harvard
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
SEC-approved ETP's are likely a safer way for investors to trade Bitcoin than some previous arrangements, but if they encourage some investors to trade Bitcoin who would not otherwise have done so, these ETPs may harm those investors.
Cochrane
John Cochrane
Hoover Institution Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
It's not the SEC's job to stop people from making what it thinks are bad investments. I don't think investors as a whole are better off holding bitcoin, but I've been wrong before and so has the SEC. "Investors better off" is not the question for regulation!
-see background information here
Cornelli
Francesca Cornelli
Northwestern Kellogg Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Diamond
Douglas Diamond
Chicago Booth
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
The SEC correctly acted as mandated, providing access to products meeting given legal requirements. Beyond that, SEC is not there to judge welfare (See Gary Gensler's comments.) Welfare is not improved by wider speculation in a zero-sum risky asset like Bitcoin.
-see background information here
Eberly
Janice Eberly
Northwestern Kellogg Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Fama
Eugene Fama
Chicago Booth
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Unless it becomes a widely used medium of exchange, bitcoin should eventually implode. The alternative is that all I learned from monetary theory about how currencies acquire value is meaningless.
Gabaix
Xavier Gabaix
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goldstein
Itay Goldstein
UPenn Wharton
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Graham
John Graham
Duke Fuqua
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Harvey
Campbell R. Harvey
Duke Fuqua
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
It might have been measurable if the SEC had approved the first ETF application in 2013 when BTC was at $90. Now, after 10+ years of stonewalling BTC=$44,000. The SEC failed the very investors that it was charged to protect in the 1933. DeFi is promising. Look for ETH ETF next.
-see background information here
Hirshleifer
David Hirshleifer
USC Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hong
Harrison Hong
Columbia
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Probably won't have much an effect on overall crypto market since there are a number of ways to already gain exposure to the asset class.
Jiang
Wei Jiang
Emory Goizueta Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Given the initial demand, have to believe that investors believe they are better off. Revealed preference. And it is measurable.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
it is dangerous to argue that the government knows better and should protect people from having the choice to invest easily in bitcoin. but at some point I expect this to end in tears and would rather not have regular investors owning this stuff
Koijen
Ralph Koijen
Chicago Booth
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
It may lower the cost and can broaden access, which may be a good thing for those who'd like exposure to Bitcoin. However, there already are ETFs on futures and, as long as the spot-futures basis is not too extreme, I am unsure the spot ETFs provide a measurable benefit.
Kuhnen
Camelia Kuhnen
UNC Kenan-Flagler
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Lo
Andrew Lo
MIT Sloan Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Lowry
Michelle Lowry
Drexel LeBow
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
First, it reduces transactions costs, which is a positive for investors who would have purchased bitcoin anyway. However, it will likely cause more investors to purchase bitcoin, which may be negative given the lack of connection to a real asset, unclear value proposition, etc
Ludvigson
Sydney Ludvigson
NYU
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Maggiori
Matteo Maggiori
Stanford GSB
Disagree
2
Bio/Vote History
Matvos
Gregor Matvos
Northwestern Kellogg Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Moskowitz
Tobias Moskowitz
Yale School of Management
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Giving investors access to a new asset will increase the opportunity set, but the effect is likely to be small.
Nagel
Stefan Nagel
Chicago Booth
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Investors get a non-interest bearing asset without getting any of the purported licit and illicit transaction benefits of bitcoin(That said, it is not the SEC's job to prevent investors from making bad investments. What the SEC should or should not do is a different question).
Parker
Jonathan Parker
MIT Sloan
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Unclear whether the benefits for some investors who would otherwise be investing on unregulated exchanges & crypto scams outweighs the costs to investors drawn into investing in non-interest bearing money with unstable value.
Parlour
Christine Parlour
Berkeley Haas
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Consumer will now have access to BTC through a regulated exchange. This should reduce intermediation fees.
Philippon
Thomas Philippon
NYU Stern
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Puri
Manju Puri
Duke Fuqua
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Roberts
Michael R. Roberts
UPenn Wharton
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Sapienza
Paola Sapienza
Northwestern Kellogg
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Seru
Amit Seru
Stanford GSB
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
More confusion (and false certification) for consumers
Stambaugh
Robert Stambaugh
UPenn Wharton
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Better off from the perspective of the those trading them? Of course. Better off from the perspective of a social planner? Unclear.
Starks
Laura Starks
UT Austin McCombs
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Stein
Jeremy Stein
Harvard
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Stroebel
Johannes Stroebel
NYU Stern
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Sufi
Amir Sufi
Chicago Booth Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Titman
Sheridan Titman
UT Austin McCombs
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Van Nieuwerburgh
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Columbia Business School
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Whited
Toni Whited
UMich Ross School
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History