Individual Investor Order Execution

Question A:

The SEC’s proposed new rule for stock orders from individual investors is likely to be effective in giving those investors better prices on their trades on average.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

The new rule would improve the overall operation of the stock market.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Campbell
John Campbell
Harvard
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
The quality of execution in the current system varies across brokers because wholesalers offer different discounts to different brokers. The current system is insufficiently transparent but the SEC rule may not improve average quality even if it reduces the dispersion of quality.
-see background information here
Cochrane
John Cochrane
Hoover Institution Stanford
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
We can't all have better prices. Who loses? Execution is a tiny issue relative to long term rates of return. Actual knowledge of how SEC rules change equilibrium trading is very thin.
Cornelli
Francesca Cornelli
Northwestern Kellogg Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Diamond
Douglas Diamond
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Bidding for orders may improve prices to small investors, but fewer orders may go to dealers offering payment for order flow. Spreads on markets may increase.
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Very hard to predict what happens, as there are extensive and intensive margins at play. But it's worth trying. If it doesn't work, it can be reversed or modified.
Eberly
Janice Eberly
Northwestern Kellogg Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Gabaix
Xavier Gabaix
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goldstein
Itay Goldstein
UPenn Wharton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Graham
John Graham
Duke Fuqua Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Harvey
Campbell R. Harvey
Duke Fuqua
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
There is a benefit to having institutional investors participate in the auction for retail investor trades. I expect there would be a benefit for high liquidity stocks but could be worse off for lower liquidity stocks. Not clear how the "average" is calculated.
-see background information here
Hirshleifer
David Hirshleifer
USC
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Hong
Harrison Hong
Columbia
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
More competition for orders will help individual investor order execution.
Jiang
Wei Jiang
Emory Goizueta
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
there are competing view on this even among people who have no financial stake in the answer
Koijen
Ralph Koijen
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Potentially, but it's not clear it is a major concern to begin with in equities (as opposed to options), see links
-see background information here
-see background information here
Kuhnen
Camelia Kuhnen
UNC Kenan-Flagler
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Lo
Andrew Lo
MIT Sloan Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Lowry
Michelle Lowry
Drexel LeBow
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
The direct effect of the rule should be beneficial to retail investors. However, the obvious question relates to indirect effects. I have not seen sufficient research to make conclusions regarding indirect effects - and the magnitude of such effects.
Ludvigson
Sydney Ludvigson
NYU
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Maggiori
Matteo Maggiori
Stanford GSB
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Matvos
Gregor Matvos
Northwestern Kellogg Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Moskowitz
Tobias Moskowitz
Yale School of Management
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Not clear they will get better prices when they really need them, like when they demand immediacy, since it may take longer to execute under the new rule.
Nagel
Stefan Nagel
Chicago Booth
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
The proposed changes seem likely to enhance competition for retail orders.
Parker
Jonathan Parker
MIT Sloan
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Payment for order flow of individual investors makes the payer effectively a monopolist who only has to provide a lower bid-ask spread than the market spread which reflects more informed traders. Competition for clearing individual trades should leave retail investors better off.
Parlour
Christine Parlour
Berkeley Haas
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Unclear that moving to trade-by-trade competition for some types of order flow improves market outcomes compared to the current lower frequency competition.
-see background information here
Philippon
Thomas Philippon
NYU Stern
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Puri
Manju Puri
Duke Fuqua
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Roberts
Michael R. Roberts
UPenn Wharton
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
SEC estimates suggest a very small improvement.
Sapienza
Paola Sapienza
Northwestern Kellogg
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Seru
Amit Seru
Stanford GSB
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Stambaugh
Robert Stambaugh
UPenn Wharton
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Starks
Laura Starks
UT Austin McCombs Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Stein
Jeremy Stein
Harvard
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Stroebel
Johannes Stroebel
NYU Stern Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Sufi
Amir Sufi
Chicago Booth
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Titman
Sheridan Titman
UT Austin McCombs
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Van Nieuwerburgh
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Columbia Business School
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
New rules will improve price transparency and the new protections on paying for order flow will also protect small investors. The latency rule in auctions is good as well and backed up by research.
Werner
Ingrid M. Werner
OSU Fisher School
Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Whited
Toni Whited
UMich Ross School
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Campbell
John Campbell
Harvard
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
I think the rule is unlikely to have a large effect on the average cost of trading for individual investors. It may slightly improve transparency.
Cochrane
John Cochrane
Hoover Institution Stanford
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
One thing we know as "experts" is how much other "experts" really don't know. Just how SEC rules improve or diminish market function is mostly made up. Many cases we do know SEC rules make things worse.
Cornelli
Francesca Cornelli
Northwestern Kellogg Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Diamond
Douglas Diamond
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Eberly
Janice Eberly
Northwestern Kellogg Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Gabaix
Xavier Gabaix
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goldstein
Itay Goldstein
UPenn Wharton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Graham
John Graham
Duke Fuqua Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Harvey
Campbell R. Harvey
Duke Fuqua
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
How big is the problem that the SEC is trying to solve with its 399 page proposed rule book? While I like the idea of involving institutional investors in the auction, the market works well now. I would prefer some experiments before making such a big change (ending PFOF).
-see background information here
Hirshleifer
David Hirshleifer
USC
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Hong
Harrison Hong
Columbia
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Not clear overall market efficiency will be so impacted.
Jiang
Wei Jiang
Emory Goizueta
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Koijen
Ralph Koijen
Chicago Booth
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
See previous answer.
Kuhnen
Camelia Kuhnen
UNC Kenan-Flagler
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Lo
Andrew Lo
MIT Sloan Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Lowry
Michelle Lowry
Drexel LeBow
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
There will be winners and losers from this rule, but it is very hard to make predictions regarding overall effects. Also, by changing so many things at once, the SEC loses transparency regarding the efficacy of each individual change.
Ludvigson
Sydney Ludvigson
NYU
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Maggiori
Matteo Maggiori
Stanford GSB
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Matvos
Gregor Matvos
Northwestern Kellogg Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Moskowitz
Tobias Moskowitz
Yale School of Management
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Not all clear and depends what is meant by operation -- on average? during liquidity events? crashes? time of execution? All unclear IMHO.
Nagel
Stefan Nagel
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Parker
Jonathan Parker
MIT Sloan
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
This regulatory change may increase or decrease the segregation of the trades of individual and institutional investors, and it is theoretically ambiguous which is better for investor welfare.
Parlour
Christine Parlour
Berkeley Haas
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Markets are very complicated and segmentation of order flow often has equilibrium effects.
Philippon
Thomas Philippon
NYU Stern
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Puri
Manju Puri
Duke Fuqua
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Roberts
Michael R. Roberts
UPenn Wharton
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Likely to have a positive but very small effect.
Sapienza
Paola Sapienza
Northwestern Kellogg
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
I do not think the rule will affect the overall stock market as much to create tangible more efficiency.
Seru
Amit Seru
Stanford GSB
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Stambaugh
Robert Stambaugh
UPenn Wharton
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Starks
Laura Starks
UT Austin McCombs Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Stein
Jeremy Stein
Harvard
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Stroebel
Johannes Stroebel
NYU Stern Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Sufi
Amir Sufi
Chicago Booth
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Titman
Sheridan Titman
UT Austin McCombs
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Van Nieuwerburgh
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Columbia Business School
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Werner
Ingrid M. Werner
OSU Fisher School
Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Whited
Toni Whited
UMich Ross School
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History